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Kentucky Derby - Saturday

Here's a fun set if bets that will cost you $6.80 :

$0.10 superfecta wheels:

Box Classic Empire and Irish War Cry for 1st and 2nd

Then Sonneteer for 3rd with ALL for 4th
All for 3rd with Sonateer 4th

Battle of Midway for 3rd with ALL for 4th
All for 3rd and Battle of Midway for 4th

(If you wanted to take your time, you could save .40. Doing it as above will get you four extra $0.10 bets. But if it comes in with Sonneteer and Battle of Midway 3rd/4th in either order you'd double your winnings. That combination could easily pay $250 for a dime)
 
Beyer and Matchmaker each picked Irish War Crime. Both were wary of Classic Empire and Always Dreaming. Neither really liked McCracken. They each liked Gunnevera to get a big check.

Each laughed at my Sonneteer even coming in fourth.

Watchmaker is talking about betting Pick 4 and Pick 5. In the Derby alone, Irish War Cry with Gunnevera and J Boys Echo

Beyer likes a Hence, Gunnevera, Irish War Cry exacta and trifecta boxes.
 
RJKarl said:
Here's a fun set if bets that will cost you $6.80 :

$0.10 superfecta wheels:

Box Classic Empire and Irish War Cry for 1st and 2nd

Then Sonneteer for 3rd with ALL for 4th
All for 3rd with Sonateer 4th

Battle of Midway for 3rd with ALL for 4th
All for 3rd and Battle of Midway for 4th

(If you wanted to take your time, you could save .40. Doing it as above will get you four extra $0.10 bets. But if it comes in with Sonneteer and Battle of Midway 3rd/4th in either order you'd double your winnings. That combination could easily pay $250 for a dime)
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I'm not sure if I could even handle that much fun!
 
BiffTannen said:
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Lolz
 
Today is Ladies Day at Churchill Downs. I would not be surprised to see Oaks favorite Paradise Woods in the Preakness if she handles the sloppy track today. Her trainer Richard "Papa" Mandella is a Hall of Famer most known for turf champions, but Paradise Woods looks like a superstar.

This is an average or slightly below average crop of three year old colts at this point. The best of of the season isn't here due to injury. Had Mastery not been injured, Bob Baffert would be looking at a potential second Triple Crown in three years. He's that much better than the rest. Had been healthy the AR Derby would have had several more West Coast horses in it which could have changed who was in the KY Derby.

The weather might be a big factor tomorrow. Today's rain won't impact much if doesn't continue through the night. Also, the predicted winds could dry out the track. If the rain stops and it is windy (over 15 mph), the direction of the wind could be critical. A cross wind would be tiring for everyone. A head wind in the stretch would it make it tough to come from behind. A head wind into the back stretch will be really harmful to those up front or without cover.
 
Here's a $60 Pick 4 that starts in Race 9 tomorrow:

$0.50 Pick 4

Race 9 - 4/7/10
Race 10 - 2/12
Race 11 -2/7/8/9
Race 12 (Derby)- 5/8/10/14/17
 
RubbinsRacin said:
I bet the winner in the oaks race. Suckas!
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Nice! Think I am going to play a superfecta for the Derby. Race is too crazy to handicap otherwise and there will be a BIG payout on a winning superfecta.

This what I am thinking right now: 10,15,17 with 10,15,17 with 5,8,14 with 5,8,14. $36 ticket
 
Congrats, the suicidal pace led to them crawling home. I hope that doesn't happen today.

The weather looks very skectchy. https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USKY1096:1:US What's really bad is the increasing wind as the Derby approaches. It may dry the track a little but could really impact the race.

I'll be re-looking at the form for all races because of the wetness. I will also be looking at the direction of the wind early in the day. One horse that we know likes the slop is Gormley.

Although I I think Irish War Cry will win, I'll only be betting place on him today. Don't scratch your bald heads too much. I bet $20 to win on IRC in the future book and got 21.5-1. If he wins, that pays $450. There's no real sense in backing that up at 5-1 or 7-1. I'll use that for something that pays more.

Something else that makes no sense is that a number of "wise guys" are saying Hence's win at Sunland looks much better because the horses that came in 2nd & 3rd also came in 2nd & 3rd against Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby, BUT the same "wise guys" are saying Classic Empire's race wasn't very good. You can't legitimately have it both ways. The term that is used in racing is one race is "flattered" by the other. You can't be flattered if you don't like the next race for the winner.

A human interest story about the race is Gunnevera's trainer, Antonio Sano is Argentina's greatest trainer. He left his homeland after being kidnapped for ransom a couple of times. It would be amazing if the crooks led him to being a KY Derby winner.

More coming as I see the track.

I'll probably confirm the Pick 4 within the hour.
 
RJKarl said:
Here's a $60 Pick 4 that starts in Race 9 tomorrow:

$0.50 Pick 4

Race 9 - 4/7/10
Race 10 - 2/12
Race 11 -2/7/8/9
Race 12 (Derby)- 5/8/10/14/17
Click to expand...

I think I will stick with this. Later, I may add #8 to Race 10 or swap him out for #12.
 
With $4.5M in the win pool, Always Dreaming is the 4-1 favorite, with Irish War Cry holding at 5-1 as well as McCracken at 7-1 and Classic Empire at a shocking 8-1.

I'd LOVE to book the bets of Patch, who inexplicably is 15-1. I coudl the story getting him to being 25-1 but this is insane.
 
RJKarl said:
Here's a $60 Pick 4 that starts in Race 9 tomorrow:

$0.50 Pick 4

Race 9 - 4/7/10
Race 10 - 2/12
Race 11 -2/7/8/9
Race 12 (Derby)- 5/8/10/14/17
Click to expand...

Add to this:

$10 Exacta Box - Irish War Cry/Gunnevera
$10 Exacta Box -IWC/Classic Empire
$5 EBox - CE/G
 
RJKarl said:
Here's a $60 Pick 4 that starts in Race 9 tomorrow:

$0.50 Pick 4

Race 9 - 4/7/10
Race 10 - 2/12
Race 11 -2/7/8/9
Race 12 (Derby)- 5/8/10/14/17
Click to expand...

#7 in Race 11 has been scratched

I am adding #8 in Race 10- It increases the bet to $67.50

Race 9 - 4/7/10
Race 10 - 2/8/12
Race 11 - 2/8/9
Race 12 - 5/8/10/14/17
 
The oaks was nuts. My horse was dead last out of the gate and for about 2/3 of the race. Then charges and barely held off another charging horse. We were going nuts watching it. Awesome.
 
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