• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

March Madness Thread

DCDeac said:
One went from 2 ACC wins to 9. The other went from 10 to.. 10. Buzz underachieved and Manning overachieved, based on their roster. I don't really think that's arguable based on literally every single pre-season evaluation.

As for the "then do so" comment, that's pretty easy. If benching your best players out of the gate and then making up for the lost minutes later in the game is a better strategy than starting your best 5, please list the successful teams who benched their top 2 players. I can think of a few rare examples where a 6th man was better than his starting counterpart, but I can't think of any team that intentionally started games by putting out 2 non-starters. That's likely a better argument than the simple reality that you are intentionally countering your opponent's best 5 players with only 3 of your best 5 to start the game. Decades of basketball theory say starters matter, but that's boring I guess.

If Manning won 10 ACC games last year and brought back that level of talent, these boards would be ROASTING him for a first round exit and only one ACC tourney win. Hell, some posters are giving him a C rating for THIS year.
Click to expand...
Or Wake greatly underachieved last year and overachieved this year, and VT greatly overachieved last year and did about what was expected this year. They also lost one of their 3 best players near the end of the season. Not much of a difference in aggregate in my mind.

As to your 2nd paragraph, I don't have any examples, but I'm really not sure a lack of examples makes an argument. I don't really think there's a significant effect of not starting your best players yet playing them starter-level minutes. Certainly not an "easily a couple wins" difference. But I'd love to see some data on it. Say, VT's scoring margin in the first 5 minutes of games this season vs. their scoring margin in 5-minute intervals the rest of the game.
 
Last edited:
bluefish said:
I went 15-1 on Thursday in my pool. Only loss was Md.-Xavier. In retrospect, I probably should have taken X since I haven't seen Md. play this year, and was pretty much going on last year's team. I was extremely lucky that Vanderbilt gave the game to Northwestern since I have NW upsetting Gonzaga and then beating Notre Dame.

However, Friday is another day.
Click to expand...

Are you Andy Katz?
 
bluefish said:
I think that later today I may do something I've never done, and start a thread about the NCAAT minus all the Manning hate. You guys bore the shit out of me.

Edit: I think I did start one when I first came to this board, primarily to give RJ shit.
Click to expand...

almost none of this page is hating on manning - almost all of it IS arguing about whether VT underachieved this year, which IS relevant to the NCAAT since their flameout is what caused the discussion.
 
Went 3-3-1 yesterday ATS. Meh.

OkSt +2.5 is my top pick today.

Also considering South Carolina given they are playing in Greenville and everybody (including me) has Marquette advancing in their brackets.

With the lack of day 1 upsets (7/8 4 & 5 seeds won... only favored 12 MTSU won, which was not an upset), I put $20 on the moneyline of all 3 14 seeds today... New Mexico St +600, Iona +850, Kent State +1700. Figured it was worth a flier.
 
8-6-1 for me. Shouldn't have played Vermont, and I hate FSU. But I'll take it.

Won't be as busy today as I won't be going against the public as much, not as many chic upset picks this time
 
DeacsATS said:
Went 3-3-1 yesterday ATS. Meh.

OkSt +2.5 is my top pick today.

Also considering South Carolina given they are playing in Greenville and everybody (including me) has Marquette advancing in their brackets.

With the lack of day 1 upsets (7/8 4 & 5 seeds won... only favored 12 MTSU won, which was not an upset), I put $20 on the moneyline of all 3 14 seeds today... New Mexico St +600, Iona +850, Kent State +1700. Figured it was worth a flier.
Click to expand...

Why is Okie State such a sharp move? Is it the Offensive Efficiency? I'm hesitant to go against plane crash + beilein
 
DeacsATS said:
Went 3-3-1 yesterday ATS. Meh.

OkSt +2.5 is my top pick today.

Also considering South Carolina given they are playing in Greenville and everybody (including me) has Marquette advancing in their brackets.

With the lack of day 1 upsets (7/8 4 & 5 seeds won... only favored 12 MTSU won, which was not an upset), I put $20 on the moneyline of all 3 14 seeds today... New Mexico St +600, Iona +850, Kent State +1700. Figured it was worth a flier.
Click to expand...

I got clobbered yesterday, 2-6 ATS. Mostly went dogs. Right strategy, wrong games. I need some locks today.
 
Xavier's win was a bit of a surprise given their injuries and late season performance, but otherwise nothing shocking yesterday. I think the whole world picked MTSU to win. Hopefully there's some more excitement today.
 
DeaconBrews said:
Why is Okie State such a sharp move? Is it the Offensive Efficiency? I'm hesitant to go against plane crash + beilein
Click to expand...

Probably largely since everyone's going Michigan.

I'm a little #scared by that game since Okie State plays a pretty wild pace and that hasn't been a great recipe for tourney success for non-elite teams of late -- especially against a more measured approach like Michigan's
 
South Carolina is a really tough defensive team that sometimes struggles with its offense so it will be interesting to see if going against a suspect marquette defense will give them a Kansas STate like shooting boost.
 
wsc8521s said:
Probably largely since everyone's going Michigan.

I'm a little #scared by that game since Okie State plays a pretty wild pace and that hasn't been a great recipe for tourney success for non-elite teams of late -- especially against a more measured approach like Michigan's
Click to expand...

It was easy for me to pick against a team described so similar to Wake.
 
wsc8521s said:
Probably largely since everyone's going Michigan.

I'm a little #scared by that game since Okie State plays a pretty wild pace and that hasn't been a great recipe for tourney success for non-elite teams of late -- especially against a more measured approach like Michigan's
Click to expand...

Bingo.

I just try not to get wrapped up in overthinking things. I'm not a big Michigan guy, and I dismiss the argument that Ok State is basically Wake Forest on steroids. I like the fact that perception is Michigan is on a roll and Ok State is struggling. And I hate the Big Ten.
 
wsc8521s said:
8-6-1 for me. Shouldn't have played Vermont, and I hate FSU. But I'll take it.

Won't be as busy today as I won't be going against the public as much, not as many chic upset picks this time
Click to expand...

That's crazy that you bet on 15 of the 16 games. Good for you. I guess you only really get 2 days like this a year... Might as well take advantage.

Vermont hurt me, too. I thought FSU would roll over FGCU and was wrong.

I don't love much today, which is why I'll go bigger on Oklahoma State.
 
CantStandYa said:
Xavier's win was a bit of a surprise given their injuries and late season performance, but otherwise nothing shocking yesterday. I think the whole world picked MTSU to win. Hopefully there's some more excitement today.
Click to expand...

Yeah... the Xavier/Maryland game was a tough one to bet on because of the Sumner injury (and Xavier's swoon) combined with the fact that Maryland is flat-out bad. Was glad to see Xavier win, but I couldn't pull the trigger there.
 
Vandy-NW was my one pass since those teams were basically identical and the public betting reflected that. Glad I didn't have to deal with that insanity at least
 
So he could brag about his perfect bracket.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top