• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Online Virtual Coach Simulation

San Antonio Horror - 75
Norman Sooners - 60


San Antonio got our first win on the season as conference play begins...looks like the conference may be wide open. Sr PF, Andrew Cannon, lead the team with 25pts and 12rbs in the victory. We had some sharp shooting off the bench which really was the factor in this game as the Sooners kept most of my starting lineup dreaming about the finding the bottom of the net. To my surprise we outrebounded the Sooners, also a big influence in the win, as they had better stats the rest of the way.
 
Stillwater finally and unexpectedly got off the schneid in our first game of conference play, 83-76 against Midland, who was 3-0 and has far and away the most talent in the conference by the mags. Chacon led the way with 26 and we only had 8 tos after being in the 15-20 range for most of our prior games.

Leaning towards dropping Boucher already. At #37 in this league I'm guessing he's a 4/4 at the absolute minimum, which is a lot for an undersized guard who turns the ball over too much to be a true point, especially when our best player already fits that bill. We're a great pref fit, so are a lot of other teams presumably. The only thing holding me back is concern over how many halfway decent players are actually going to be available in the net. Don't want to spend points on a bad tie, but don't want to waste them chasing some mediocre netter either.
 
Adout3000 said:
The only thing holding me back is concern over how many halfway decent players are actually going to be available in the net. Don't want to spend points on a bad tie, but don't want to waste them chasing some mediocre netter either.
Click to expand...

I've been debating my approach due to this as well. While I have a decent amount NR net guys, a part of me fears every one of them will be maxed by some one. This gives me pause and maybe I should retain maxes or drop off 1 and save pts until after we see the reveal. Risky, but so is chasing the net. Not sure which way is the 'best' way to go in this league. Even L15 wasn't this active.
 
DTL message board predicts that any ranked recruit is a 6-way tie, and Pribble will be a 20-way tie. While I share storm's concern that every decent recruit (top half, third) will be maxed by somebody, I suspect that most coaches recruited as they were accustomed, and the attention to recruits is extremely top heavy. Expecting it to level off some next season. Lucky is the team who has 2 seniors in NA. They'll get a pass this recruiting season.
 
I think that's a very fair assessment. The top 10 guys in this league are going to be silly big ties.
 
tau06 said:
I think that's a very fair assessment. The top 10 guys in this league are going to be silly big ties.
Click to expand...

Damn shame, I'm on 2 of them!!!!!....

Likely dropping off Conner Smith (8). Guards are easier to get than bigs so I'll likely chase Flores (2) and just accept it's not likely.
 
I think I'm way more skeptical of the idea of super-ties than y'all.

I'm on 3 in the top 12, though, so I guess I'll see this play out firsthand.
 
RedSoxFaithful said:
I think I'm way more skeptical of the idea of super-ties than y'all.

I'm on 3 in the top 12, though, so I guess I'll see this play out firsthand.
Click to expand...

I do think people are overreacting/exaggerating somewhat (on the DTL board at least, not so much here - there's zero chance the #4 recruit is going to be a 25/25, and there will almost certainly be ranked guys lower than 5/5) but my best guess is somewhere around 850 maxes went out and the vast majority of those are going to be concentrated on the top 150 or so players. Even if there are no 'super-ties' (besides Pribble) guys who end up in the top 10-25 are going to be around double digit ties. Of course, there's still a lot of noise in the rankings (2 nets still essentially equal 1 max, and it wouldn't shock me if some guys ended up in 30-50 nets) so I don't think we have that great a sense of who will be where come the reveal.
 
There are 84 players who have shown up in the Top 75. I'll post them when I get back to my computer.
 
Adout3000 said:
there's still a lot of noise in the rankings (2 nets still essentially equal 1 max, and it wouldn't shock me if some guys ended up in 30-50 nets) so I don't think we have that great a sense of who will be where come the reveal.
Click to expand...

ding ding ding
 
So my team shoots 53% from deep.
 
Amarillo Nightmare 76
Cheyenne Villains 53

The Nightmare got back into the W column advancing to 4-1 on the short season. The team shot 33 for 65 and had a season low of 5 Turnovers. Next up the 2-3 Galveston Panthers.
 
Ph vs Awaken on Friday
 
Adout3000 said:
I do think people are overreacting/exaggerating somewhat (on the DTL board at least, not so much here - there's zero chance the #4 recruit is going to be a 25/25, and there will almost certainly be ranked guys lower than 5/5) but my best guess is somewhere around 850 maxes went out and the vast majority of those are going to be concentrated on the top 150 or so players. Even if there are no 'super-ties' (besides Pribble) guys who end up in the top 10-25 are going to be around double digit ties. Of course, there's still a lot of noise in the rankings (2 nets still essentially equal 1 max, and it wouldn't shock me if some guys ended up in 30-50 nets) so I don't think we have that great a sense of who will be where come the reveal.
Click to expand...

Yea this is what i'm thinking. Top 10 guys are going to be at least 10/10 and closer to 15/15 plus ties IMO this season.
 
San Antonio Horror - 61
Omaha Cattle Company - 50

San Antonio was able to get their second win of the season against a solid Omaha team to put us 2-0 in conference play after starting 0-3 in OOC. We were able to get a little more scoring from other people than Andrew Cannon, but he still chipped in 19pts on 8-12 shooting with 5rbs and 5blks. Our C, Mark Perez, was again a monster on the Boards getting 12rbs. He is much needed on this poor rebounding team and I am glad to have him one more season...enough time to rebuild, hopefully.

we now turn our sights on the 2-3 Corpus Christi Jarbage Time...there should be a real battle at the PF position on Friday!
 
I have a theory on how Scout works.

kmoney's algorithm random generates random players with random ratings on a scale of 1-15, five categories with a +, -, and neutral for each. Scout determines how it shows up on the spreadsheet. Ratings on the spreadsheet are a certain number more or less than the real rating. For example, an Exc Scout player could go up or down by 2 points the spreadsheet. Good goes up or down by 3. Fair 4 and Poor 5. It's either random or normally distributed.

I tested this idea out with my predicted ratings. These ratings are by no means a sure thing, but I predict ratings based on the Exc Scout players meaning the Scout factor isn't in the models. I looked at the difference between my predictions and the spreadsheet ratings and then looked at the standard deviation of this difference within Scout categories for this season.

Here are the standard deviations for the difference between predicted Sht and spreadsheet Sht by Scout:

Exc = 1.3
Good = 1.8
Fair = 2.3
Poor = 3.4

This means about 68% of Exc Scout players a predicted to be either a point higher or lower than the spreadsheet, but for Poor Scout players, it's 3 points higher or lower.

For every category, the standard deviation increases significantly from Exc to Poor scout.
 
I like the thought, all of that makes statistical sense. When you say "3 points higher or lower" do you mean each category could change 3 spots (Good+ could be Exc+ or a Fair+) or something else?
 
Yes. That's what I mean. But it's probably a normal distribution meaning the large majority of Good+ turn up Good to Exc- and a few are lower or higher.

I'm going to turn the spread sheet into a Google doc so we can all put our player's ratings in. That would help test the theory.

I hope to incorporate it into my estimates so there's not as much variance from game to game. I have a max who I way overrated after five game who looks pedestrian now. If I had consider Scout more, I would have guessed he was due for a collapse.
 
PhDeac said:
Yes. That's what I mean. But it's probably a normal distribution meaning the large majority of Good+ turn up Good to Exc- and a few are lower or higher.

I'm going to turn the spread sheet into a Google doc so we can all put our player's ratings in. That would help test the theory.

I hope to incorporate it into my estimates so there's not as much variance from game to game. I have a max who I way overrated after five game who looks pedestrian now. If I had consider Scout more, I would have guessed he was due for a collapse.
Click to expand...

Yea, I have to think it kmoney would just stick to a normal distribution. Not really sure why he would even think of using anything else.

As an aside, i'm interested to see how my main recruits end up once all is said and one. To a man, they all have solid to really good stats but are on what appears to be just dreadful teams. Interested in seeing if that has any impact on swaying how "accurate" a scout may be. Does a Fair scout on a poor team have any correlation to how big the jumps on a players attributes may be in a negative way? Don't know, but that could be another little piece that we could dig into as we get into more and more seasons and a larger amount of data.
 
Yeah. Over time I'll include team ratings back into my analysis. I used to just control for it but technically, you should be able to estimate how good each class is by rating the three classes before it.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top