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The 2012 Official MLB Baseball Thread (Mother's basement edition)

TownieDeac said:
Yeah they already have 90 mil in the three other guys. I know the Phils wanna keep him around, but they're gonna need infielders.
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That's not correct - 20 for Hallday, 25 for Lee (starting next year), 25 for Howard (starting in 2014, for the last 3 years) = 70 mil. That's obviously a lot for 3 guys, but it's not 90 mil
 
deac29 said:
That's not correct - 20 for Hallday, 25 for Lee (starting next year), 25 for Howard (starting in 2014, for the last 3 years) = 70 mil. That's obviously a lot for 3 guys, but it's not 90 mil
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I need to find a new philly fan source to talk to about the phils. He fed me both the things you've corrected me on this morning.

ETA, he was including 20 mil for the last year of Hamels this year, which doesn't make sense in the original context of my point. I'll stop for a while about things I don't know what I'm talking about.
 
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RJKarl said:
A couple of things, first the Phils and Hamels may not be that far apart on the extension- http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2012/s...nt-philadelphia-phillies-discussing-extension

Next, remember Utley's $15M drops off after next year. If the Phils go to $23-25M, it's only $8-10M more than he makes this year. After Utley leaves, they can can balance it out.
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Uh, yeah, but Lees contract went up to $21 from $11 last year and goes to $25 next year - they don't have a lot of room unless they want to Yankees it and jump to $200 mil.
 
They also lose almost $17M next year when Blanton's and Polanco's contracts come off the books.
 
RJKarl said:
They also lose almost $17M next year when Blanton's and Polanco's contracts come off the books.
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True - but who plays 3B? Who is your 5th starter? Thats gonna cost money.

I would be shocked now if they can resign him - would have to think Hamels is going to get $25.
 
BR has the Phillies payroll at $112MM for 2013. Assuming they give $20MM+ to Cole and pick up Ruiz's option, that's about $140MM. They'll cross their fingers real tight and hope that Brown remembers how to catch a ball and some combination of Gillies, Mayberry and/or Galvis can figure out how to hit somewhat consistently. Use the remaining $$ for the young guys and to patch whatever holes are left when whichever of those four are unable play at a major league level.

Yes it is a lot to have locked up for a few players, but Hamels is arguably the most important of the bunch. If he's not signed because of the other contracts, they look even worse than they do now. Pay him.
 
RJKarl said:
They also lose almost $17M next year when Blanton's and Polanco's contracts come off the books.
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They also need to replace those guys coming off the books, though. And they have no impact prospects in the high minors, because they traded them all away. If you spend all of your third base, second base, and centerfield money on a pitcher you alread had, then you're certainly not improving yourselves. I'm not saying "don't sign Hamels" necessarily, but you can't just spend all the available money on him without accounting for the other spots.

The one thing they do have going for them, at this point, is that they have been so needlessly shortsighted the past few years that there is no longer any reason to even pretend they can extend this window any further than the next 2-3 years. That means they can pretty much put all their eggs in the "win now" basket, and deal with the fact that they're gonna suck sooner than later, when they do start to suck. They are basically the '07-'09 Mets at this point. So if you can backload a Hamels contract, or even just tack on years past the point of diminishing returns, then you might as well do that.

But, then, the other problem is he hasn't exactly been treated like a World Series hero the last few years, he is now the only big pitcher (or player for that matter) due to be on the market, he's from Cali, and the Dodgers have a shitload of money to spend. I'm sure he and his agent are very aware of all of this.
 
DaDeacs said:
True - but who plays 3B? Who is your 5th starter? Thats gonna cost money.

I would be shocked now if they can resign him - would have to think Hamels is going to get $25.
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Let's say they give $5M for a fifth starter and $5M for a 3B. If they give Hamels $25M (up from his $15M this year), it's only a net of +$3M.

That's very doable.
 
ChrisPaul3 said:
But, then, the other problem is he hasn't exactly been treated like a World Series hero the last few years, he is now the only big pitcher (or player for that matter) due to be on the market, he's from Cali, and the Dodgers have a shitload of money to spend. I'm sure he and his agent are very aware of all of this.
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Not that I'm disagreeing with your conclusion, but isn't Greinke a pretty safe bet to hit free agency?
 
avalon said:
Not that I'm disagreeing with your conclusion, but isn't Greinke a pretty safe bet to hit free agency?
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As soon as my friend (brewers fan) found out his immediate response was "welp there goes the brewers' chance to resign Greinke"
 
RJKarl said:
Let's say they give $5M for a fifth starter and $5M for a 3B. If they give Hamels $25M (up from his $15M this year), it's only a net of +$3M.

That's very doable.
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Again, I guess, but next year you have a year older Ryan Howard, a year older Jimmy Rollins, you lose Victorino unless you want to up hie $9 million salary - your best offensive player will be Pence - you are going to need more than a stopgap at 3rd - $5 million gets you a stopgap.

$5 million for a 5th starter is doable, but you are probably taking a chance - probably move Kendrick into the 5th spot and use the money to sign a good middle reliever, they are cheaper.

Still, the offense is going down - CP3 has it right, the window is closing on this team and your hope is that Howard and Rollins can play through their contracts at a decent enough level to support their salary.

Also, your assumption is that the team wants to stay the same or increase payroll - that may not be the case.
 
avalon said:
BR has the Phillies payroll at $112MM for 2013. Assuming they give $20MM+ to Cole and pick up Ruiz's option, that's about $140MM. They'll cross their fingers real tight and hope that Brown remembers how to catch a ball and some combination of Gillies, Mayberry and/or Galvis can figure out how to hit somewhat consistently. Use the remaining $$ for the young guys and to patch whatever holes are left when whichever of those four are unable play at a major league level.

Yes it is a lot to have locked up for a few players, but Hamels is arguably the most important of the bunch. If he's not signed because of the other contracts, they look even worse than they do now. Pay him.
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The $112 figure does not account for Pence who is Arb4 on a 2012 number of $10.4M.
 
Melchior has the Rays finishing 2nd in the AL East, but winning the WS. Must love the pitching (appropriately so).

Moore also with the ROY sweep.
 
CheesePritchard said:
The $112 figure does not account for Pence who is Arb4 on a 2012 number of $10.4M.
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Right, I was leaving it open to a potential Pence-free option. (So they'd have to use the remaining $$ that I referenced on Pence or a cheaper replacement if the three outfielders I listed aren't viable candidates.)
 
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