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Thoughts on the Kentucky Derby -California Chrome's future

Below are the current betting favorites for the 2014 Kentucky Derby, via Bovada.lv:

California Chrome 7/4
Danza 8/1
Wicked Strong 8/1
Vicars In Trouble 10/1
Hoppertunity 14/1
Dance With Fate 16/1
Wildcat Red 16/1
Intense Holiday 20/1
Samraat 20/1
Social Inclusion 20/1
Tapiture 20/1
Bayern 25/1
Candy Boy 25/1
Chitu 25/1
General A Rod 25/1
Ride On Curlin 25/1
Ring Weekend 25/1
Medal Count 33/1
Mexikoma 33/1
Strong Mandate 33/1
We Miss Artie 33/1
Uncle Sigh 40/1
Noble Moon 50/1
Tap It Rich 50/1
 
RJKarl said:
Those seem safe. The field isn't completely set yet.

I am really leaning towards 4X4X CA Chrome X 4 $0.50 Pick 4. I might even go 5x5x5 or close to it.
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Can you explain this pick 4 bet a little better for me? I understand the pick 4 bet as a novice, so are suggesting the 4 horse in the 2 races prior and the one after the derby? I'm just a little confused.
 
The Pick 4 is picking the winners of four consecutive races.

A Superfecta is picking the first four horses across the finish line in one race.

The reason I would pick 4-5 horses in each of the races other than the KY Derby is they typically are very competitive. It's hatrd to pick just one horse. With races like these and 20 horses in the KY Derby, it is likely that even a Pick 4 of favorites will pay a couple hundred dollars. I think it will pay over $1000 for $1 bet or $500 for a $0.50 bet.

Right now I'm looking at placing a Pick 4 of $32-62.50.

Assuming a fast track, I like Samraat, Wicked Strong, Ride on Curlin, Hopportunity, Danza and Intense Holiday in the exacta under California Chrome. I may just bet to win and Pick 3s/Pick 4s.
 
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Just tell us how to make some $$ RJ haha.

I do appreciate all this info though RJ and co, it's been really helpful.
 
Last year we made a couple of bucks. Other than the years with Mine That Bird and Giaccamo, we've really well.
 
Wednesday is when they draw post positions for the race Saturday. If California Chrome draws outside #3, it's almost over.

CA Chrome should be 5/2
Danza 6-1
Samraat 8-1
Wicked Strong 8-1
Hoppertunity 12-1
 
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/

Biggest winners Hoppertunity- #11 and Danza #4 (and Tony D is coming to the race) Wildcat Red #10

Biggest Losers - Vicar's In Trouble #1 Wicked Strong #20

California Chrome got #5. This is OK. I was hoping for #14. That's the last gate in the main device. It give hims more space. If not #14, it would have been perfect if he switched posts with Wildcat Red to have all the speed inside of him.

CA Chrome has been put in as the Morning Line favorite at 5/2 . Hopertunity is second at 6-1.
 
1. Vicar's In Trouble
2. Harry's Holiday
3. Uncle Sigh
4. Danza
5. California Chrome
6. Samraat
7. We Miss Artie
8. General A Rod
9. Vinceremos
10. Wildcat Red
11. Hoppertunity
12. Dance With Fate
13. Chitu
14. Medal Count
15. Tapiture
16. Intense Holiday
17. Commanding Curve
18. Candy Boy
19. Ride On Curlin
20. Wicked Strong
 
Alas, I was hoping Vicar's had a shot. Would have been the first female jockey to win the derby..
 
cookout, Vicar doesn't have the breeding to go the distance. If Rosie got vicar to win, he'd be the first horse with a dosage of 5.0 to ever win the Derby.

Rosie is a great rider, but this one isn't going to happen.
 
RJKarl said:
cookout, Vicar doesn't have the breeding to go the distance. If Rosie got vicar to win, he'd be the first horse with a dosage of 5.0 to ever win the Derby.

Rosie is a great rider, but this one isn't going to happen.
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I have no idea what means, but thanks for the intel. :p

I wouldn't have bet on the horse or anything, just sorta know someone close to the family that owns it (and think they have a second horse in the race with zero chance as well)...
 
Vicar could get a check. I think 5th pays about $100,000.

Dosage is about your horse's breeding to go the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. The breaking point is to be under 4.0.
 
RJKarl said:
Vicar could get a check. I think 5th pays about $100,000.

Dosage is about your horse's breeding to go the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. The breaking point is to be under 4.0.
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Ok, so doing some quick research, a higher dosage number generally means good speed but less stamina, and lower means trending more towards the opposite?

Also, Real Quiet won it in 1998 with a dosage above 5, no?
 
Rosie is doing very well at Churchill Downs so far, but RJ told me (and I agree) that when you get to that level ALL the jockeys are either good or have a great rhythm with that particular horse.

Leparoux had a wonderful season at Keenland.

I alternated bets on Borel and Leparoux when I went to churchill. Worked out okay.
 
RJ: Of the longer shots (say 20:1 or higher) which couple of horses do you think offer the most value at the current odds? Thanks. Always appreciate your insight on the Derby.
 
KENTUCKY DERBY DRAW
Post Horse ML Odds
1 Vicar's In Trouble 30-1
2 Harry's Holiday 50-1
3 Uncle Sigh 30-1
4 Danza 10-1
5 California Chrome 5-2
6 Samraat 15-1
7 We Miss Artie 50-1
8 General A Rod 15-1
9 Vinceremos 30-1
10 Wildcat Red 15-1
11 Hoppertunity 6-1
12 Dance With Fate 20-1
13 Chitu 20-1
14 Medal Count 20-1
15 Tapiture 15-1
16 Intense Holiday 12-1
17 Commanding Curve 50-1
18 Candy Boy 20-1
19 Ride On Curlin 15-1
20 Wicked Strong 8-1

I really don't think any of the 20-1+ have a shot this year. To be honest barring bad racing luck, they can't beat California Chrome. Wicked Strong had the best chance but the 20 hole. Danza got a good draw and has a shot.

Of the higher odds, Samtraat and Intense holiday have the best shots. If Danza floats up to 12-1 or more he might be worth a play.

I have to think about how many exactas to bet on not to bet them. The reality is if the net payout is less than 3-1, it's not a good bet. What I'm saying is if I think the total amount I'm betting in exactas is $60 and the projected payout is less than $240, I'd rather bet the money on CA Chrome to win.

If he gets bad luck, exactas without him will be inflated fairly dramatically. Typically an exacta with the 2nd and 4th favorites would pay something like $35. I'm guessing that same exacta would pay $80 or more because of how big a favorite CA Chrome will be. A huge percentage of bets will him 1st or 2nd.

An exacta of say Samraat and Danza could pay $150. Hopportunitry and Intense Holiday could pay that much too.
 
Hopportunity is out of the Derby. He hurt his front left leg.
 
I don't know the answer to this one. With the scratch, many tracks put the new horse on the outside. Some replace him in the same place as the scratched horse. How they do it makes a difference in the Derby due to how many horses are in the race.

If will marginally help Wicked Strong and Ride on Curlin to get closer to the rail. Moving from #16 to #15 could really help Intense Holiday. #15 is the first horse in the auxiliary gate. This gives him some space to dive to the rail quicker or find a trip easier. Also he gets 6-8' cushion on his inside to avoid getting squeezed out of the gate.
 
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