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Wake (#9 CFP, #5 SOR) at UNC (UNC-2.5) 12:00 noon, ABC

FWIW, we match up WAY better against UNC than State. Everywhere we are good on D (TOs and TO margin, Sacks, TFL) UNC is terrible at. We are top 20 in Sacks and TFL, UNC is well over 100 in Sacks Allowed and TFL allowed. We will probably still give up some big plays / scores to UNC, but I suspect we will get off the field more often on D than we have been seeing recently. Side note - I was surprised by the Sacks and TFL stats, I'm surprised we dont bring more pressure given that, but maybe it just would create too many additional holes in the secondary if we dont get to the QB.

State, however, is a totally different story.
 
Tin Cup said:
FWIW, we match up WAY better against UNC than State. Everywhere we are good on D (TOs and TO margin, Sacks, TFL) UNC is terrible at. We are top 20 in Sacks and TFL, UNC is well over 100 in Sacks Allowed and TFL allowed. We will probably still give up some big plays / scores to UNC, but I suspect we will get off the field more often on D than we have been seeing recently. Side note - I was surprised by the Sacks and TFL stats, I'm surprised we dont bring more pressure given that, but maybe it just would create too many additional holes in the secondary if we dont get to the QB.

State, however, is a totally different story.
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This is my biggest issue with the way we are running our D YTD. If it is Hemphill making the call on when to send pressure and when not to, he needs help in this department. He's lost all feel for it. Did a great job to start the season and has shit the bed since UVA, IMHO.
 
Maybe I’m just permanently traumatized by last year’s result but I’m still way more scared of UNC’s offense than I am NC State’s. And yes I know it’s a much different team this year but this is the only team of the last 4 that I see really being able to score with us.
 
SkyDivingDeacon said:
This is my biggest issue with the way we are running our D YTD. If it is Hemphill making the call on when to send pressure and when not to, he needs help in this department. He's lost all feel for it. Did a great job to start the season and has shit the bed since UVA, IMHO.
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you mean... since... the injuries piled up?

And they magically got a whole bunch of pressure against Duke when they weren't missing 12+ defenders?

Pressures/Sacks per game(number of plays):

ODU: 17/3(77)
Norfolk St: 17/4(71)
FSU:13/4(51)
UVA: 35/7(90)
UL: 11/4(75)
Cuse: 27/7(87)
Army:4/1(86)- I wonder why this is so low??
Duke: 14/0(63)

So since UVA they exceeded their season averages in sacks in both the UL and Cuse games, 1.5x'd their average pressures against Cuse, didn't get close to either against an Army team that threw the ball 13 times, and were just under their average in pressures but didn't record a sack in a game that was a) their second lowest snap count of the season defensively and b) they were a drive away from a shutout.

Not really understanding this take
 
Cam - do you know what our blitz % is and how often that translates to those pressures / sacks / TFLs?
 
CamLemons said:
you mean... since... the injuries piled up?

And they magically got a whole bunch of pressure against Duke when they weren't missing 12+ defenders?

Pressures/Sacks per game(number of plays):

ODU: 17/3(77)
Norfolk St: 17/4(71)
FSU:13/4(51)
UVA: 35/7(90)
UL: 11/4(75)
Cuse: 27/7(87)
Army:4/1(86)- I wonder why this is so low??
Duke: 14/0(63)

So since UVA they exceeded their season averages in sacks in both the UL and Cuse games, 1.5x'd their average pressures against Cuse, didn't get close to either against an Army team that threw the ball 13 times, and were just under their average in pressures but didn't record a sack in a game that was a) their second lowest snap count of the season defensively and b) they were a drive away from a shutout.

Not really understanding this take
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Valid points. So you believe we are optimizing when we send pressure and when we don't? I think you're missing my point. I'm not saying we're not sending pressure enough and I know injuries took a toll on our D. I am suggesting that *when* we send pressure seems way off vs. the beginning of the year. Almost like it's become pretty damn predictable at this point. Maybe I'm wrong.
 
Tin Cup said:
Cam - do you know what our blitz % is and how often that translates to those pressures / sacks / TFLs?
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Not provided per PFF unfortunately but my 1st thought is that you can get close to it by getting the % of pass rushing snaps from the DBs and LBs divided by number of drop backs. Only issue there is I can't tell if the snaps happened on the same play or not so may inflate the numbers. If I do it that way:

Duke: 9/30, 30%(14 pressures, 0 Sacks)
Army: 5/14, 35.7%(4 pressures, 1 sack)
Cuse: 21/40, 52.5%(27 pressures, 7 sacks)
UL: 11/31, 35.48%(11 pressures, 4 sacks)
UVA: 42/71, 59.15%(35 pressures, 7 sacks)
FSU: 8/30, 26.6%(13 pressures, 4 sacks)

The only trend I spot here is of course more blitzes mean more pressure but they sent a 5th or more rusher 50% or more of the time against UVA and Cuse and had wildly different results. They sent about the same on the about the same number of drop backs between Duke and UL and got roughly the same amount of pressures, but finished against UL and didn't against Duke
 
Maybe we bring a UVA style D with lots of pressure from all directions, changing it up from the recent trends...
 
SkyDivingDeacon said:
Valid points. So you believe we are optimizing when we send pressure and when we don't? I think you're missing my point. I'm not saying we're not sending pressure enough and I know injuries took a toll on our D. I am suggesting that *when* we send pressure seems way off vs. the beginning of the year. Almost like it's become pretty damn predictable at this point. Maybe I'm wrong.
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The thing is, I think they are doing it at the right times, the only time I've really been annoyed with no pressure is when they drop with a 3 man rush. I absolutely hate it. But they've mostly gone away from that and have still found themselves 46th in stop rate. They've been getting off the field at a 69% clip and that's with them having a 25% stop rate in 12 drives against Army and 41% on 12 drives against Louisville. 72% against UVA, 84% against FSU, 57% against Cuse, and 84% against Duke. Could it be better? Yeah I do, but I don't think it's from a pressure standpoint because they're getting plenty of it as it is, they're just getting burned at times when they do(which happens when you don't get home fast enough) but I mean predictable has gotten them into almost the top third in defense which is about where you'd want this team. They'll never be a shut down defense and UVA probably should've scored a few more points, but the results on the macro level have been about where I've expected them and I think they can shore a bit more up but I do think there is a limit to the ceiling defensively regardless of the DC given what the offense does
 
Also, I painfully rewatched the condensed game from last year and a number of things stood out.

- Holy shit, Andersen played an absolutely horrible game. Having Greer back there should help a lot and someone else pointed out that Andersen should be used to pressure Howell and lay the wood...I agree.
- Howell doesn't handle pressure well, but makes really good reads on handing the ball off and/or running. Anyone pressuring Howell needs to keep going straight at him and not get frozen in space waiting to see who keeps the ball...this happened a lot last year.
- CBS played a great game and our OL gave us a lot of push up front.
- Donovan Greene was unstoppable in the first half.
- Groulx's drop on 3rd and 4 with 12:50 left to go in the fourth quarter which would have put us at midfield followed by Andersen's missed tackle with UNC on their own 25 yd. line with 3rd and five with 11:43 to go, was a back breaker. This is when the momentum totally turned on us. Assuming this is the same D we faced last year, we will move the ball on them and I think our RBs will have big days.

Time for the D to step up in a huge way. Hate that we're short Johns and Garnes.
 
#35 Wayman played well vs Duke at DE. How many safeties are available for UNC? Are our CBs healthy? Who will cover #11?
 
No one has covered #11 all year. His game by game stats are ridiculous
 
Looking at UNC's stats, Howell has more yards gained than Chandler. I knew he was one of the top QB rushers, but I didn't know he was more proficient than the RB on so many carries. On the flip side, Howell has lost 199 yards on sacks.

Downs has 70 rec. The next highest WR has 17.
https://goheels.com/sports/football/stats
 
Josh Downs is gonna make plays - just gotta make stops when we can. What killed us last year was not converting enough 3rd Downs in the second half- think we went 4 straight 3 and out’s. Can’t have that to win in Kenan. Hopefully office keeps rolling and aren’t in many third and long’s.
 
Tin Cup said:
FWIW, we match up WAY better against UNC than State. Everywhere we are good on D (TOs and TO margin, Sacks, TFL) UNC is terrible at. We are top 20 in Sacks and TFL, UNC is well over 100 in Sacks Allowed and TFL allowed. We will probably still give up some big plays / scores to UNC, but I suspect we will get off the field more often on D than we have been seeing recently. Side note - I was surprised by the Sacks and TFL stats, I'm surprised we dont bring more pressure given that, but maybe it just would create too many additional holes in the secondary if we dont get to the QB.

State, however, is a totally different story.
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Funny, I thought the exact opposite. It's good to see you bring up some of the negative play stats, I was surprised we had caused that many and that makes me more confident about this game.

State just doesn't look explosive to me at all on offense. I know their stats are pretty good. I watched their game against Miami and Clemson, I just don't see them keeping up with our offense at all. And their defense, while it has been great at times, continues to lose key players. They gave up a lot of big plays against Miami, we will have our chances as well. State is the more complete team, but think UNC poses problems that few other ACC teams do. I would not be shocked if State lost to FSU this weekend in Tallahassee.

UNC has been sporadic, but they still have the ability for big plays. They have a monster WR in Josh Downs and have scored a lot of points at home. They are one of the few teams that can keep up with us offensively. We need that FSU/Virginia/Duke defensive effort, or force a lot of turnovers.
 
Clicked on the ESPN week 10 preview of big games because it mentioned Wake/UNC in the headline. The entire fucking blurb was about how incredible Sam Howell is. That is fucking unreal. I mean you expect it but they couldn’t have even added one line about “hey the other QB is pretty good too”.
 
WRS said:
Clicked on the ESPN week 10 preview of big games because it mentioned Wake/UNC in the headline. The entire fucking blurb was about how incredible Sam Howell is. That is fucking unreal. I mean you expect it but they couldn’t have even added one line about “hey the other QB is pretty good too”.
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More red meat for our team to feast on before this game. There is so much motivational material being gifted to our boys by the media leading up to this game it's incredible. It's going to make the beat down I expect to be so much more satisfying.
 
WRS said:
Clicked on the ESPN week 10 preview of big games because it mentioned Wake/UNC in the headline. The entire fucking blurb was about how incredible Sam Howell is. That is fucking unreal. I mean you expect it but they couldn’t have even added one line about “hey the other QB is pretty good too”.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the only Wake mentions were Clawson thinks Howell is the bee's knees and basically that our corners are terrible.
 
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