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Wake Baseball 2017-Regional Champs! On to Supers!

big series win! Especially to win 2 games after that Friday night debacle.

DEACS!!!
 
Better to be lucky than good sometimes. Pretty bad strike three call on their best hitter and then Roberts shuts it down with a dirty slider to get the third out. Tough that we didn't get the sweep but two wins is definitely better than one.
 
Deacs win 8-4. Nice that we rebounded from Friday to win the series, but we should have swept. 17-4 over our last 21, and each of those 4 we have really contributed to our defeat instead of just getting beat. When we don't hurt ourselves, we are pretty tough to handle.
 
We've played a lot of games at home which is definitely a hitter friendly park. Will be curious to see if the power numbers translate throughout the entire season.
 
[h=4]Coastal[/h]
TeamRecordWin %GBOverallOverall %Streak
North Carolina6-30.667-18-60.750L1
Virginia4-50.444219-60.760W2
Miami4-50.444211-130.458W1
Duke4-50.444213-130.500L2
Pittsburgh4-50.444211-100.524W3
Virginia Tech3-60.333314-120.538L3
Georgia Tech3-60.333313-90.591L2
[h=4]Atlantic[/h]
TeamRecordWin %GBOverallOverall %Streak
Clemson8-10.889-20-40.833W6
Louisville8-10.889-21-20.913W2
Wake Forest6-30.667218-70.720W2
Florida State6-30.667218-70.720W4
NC State4-50.444413-120.520L2
Notre Dame2-70.22267-150.318L3
Boston College1-80.11177-140.333L3
 
And I suspect that this week we will be ranked in at least some polls. We were close in the coaches poll, D1baseball, and some others I would imagine.
 
So far seems like the Atlantic is the beast division. Also amazing that VT is in the top 5 teams nationally in home runs but they are only 14-12. They must have some pretty terrible pitching.
 
Solid weekend despite the total collapse on Friday night.

There's not much question that Wake's home park is very hitter friendly but similarly there isn't much question that our offense mashes the ball.

Wake was 29th in the coaches poll this week and I anticipate we will be ranked. We went 3-1 in four games against teams in the top 100 of the RPI (not that I believe RPI is the greatest metric but it's the only one we really have at this point of the year). Teams around us:

28. South Florida (went 2-2 this week, but all four games were against top 20 RPI teams)
27. Arkansas (3-1, lost to Missouri who is top 25 RPI)
26. San Diego (2-2, lost to top 20 RPI CSF as well as Santa Clara who is awful)
25. Kentucky (3-1, lost to top 20 RPI Ole Miss)
24. Auburn (3-1, beat Tech and lost to Georgia who isn't good)
23. TAMU (2-2, dropped series to Vandy and has lost 6 of 8)
22. ULL (2-2, all games against teams outside top 100)
21. Michigan (2-2, lost twice to Maryland who is around 75)
20. Missouri (2-2, lost twice to Arkansas)

It will be close but Wake should sneak into the top 25 this week. I expect to be ranked 24th or 25th.

Four road games this week upcoming. App State tomorrow, then down to Miami. We have Miami and Louisville on the road the next two series. If we wind up 3-3 from these six games we'd be sitting pretty.

The other three teams around us in the Atlantic have all played at least two series against the worst three teams in the ACC (BC, ND, Pitt) and are a combined 17-1 in those 18 games. Wake hasn't played any. Not much question right now that Wake's a top 5 team in the ACC.
 
Also something to keep an eye on is the performance of the ACC in general this year. As of right now only seven teams are decently positioned for an NCAAT bid:

Clemson
UNC
Louisville
Wake
Virginia
N.C. State
Florida State

I included State here even though they're only 13-12 right now since their RPI is decent. The remaining seven teams in the conference are either 80+ in RPI, currently have a losing record, or both. Hard to see a team with a losing record right now make a run at 33 wins or so, but is certainly possible if a team gets hot. It would require a team like Duke, at 13-13, to finish the season at around a .666 winning percentage. Notably Duke is lucky from the Coastal and gets to play all three of BC, ND, and Pitt.
 
Breaking down Wake's ACC series by run differential also provides some insight as to where this team stands:

N.C. State - Tied 14-14 (took series 2-1). By taking the series despite tying in runs, Wake gets a critical tiebreak over a team ranked by some in the preseason top 10. Although State has struggled, it's good to have them out of the way early if they get hot. They certainly have the talent to do so. In their other two series, Miami and #2 Louisville, State outscored the Hurricanes 15-13 and were outscored by Louisville 16-10 (really isn't bad since the Cards only have two losses on the year, although they're yet to play a top 50 RPI team which helps their cause).

Duke - Won 22-13 (took series 2-1). Winning by 9 runs over three games and only getting two wins isn't perfect but any road series win is good. Furthermore, winning by 3 runs a game shows Wake is able to take care of teams they're better than, again, on the road which is only a plus. Through two series we came out roughly even in expected wins I'd say. State series could've gone either way and we probably got a little "unlucky" against Duke. In their other two series, Virginia Tech and Virginia, Duke outscored VPI 21-13 and UVA 31-29 (aided by a 19-3 win in the opener, despite dropping the series 2-1 overall). Duke will be an interesting team to track as the season continues. Remains to be seen if VPI is good at all. Early indication is "no" as they got swept by Pitt this weekend.

Georgia Tech - Won 31-19 (took series 2-1). By all accounts this should've been a sweep and we just handed the first game to the Jackets on a platter. Regardless, getting series wins is critical and we now have 3 series wins with only 7 remaining. We only won four series total in the ACC last year, so we're off to a very hot start. Offense again showed it's pretty incredible. In their other two series, @Miami and top ten UNC, Tech was outscored 32-23 by the Canes and 15-13 by UNC. This was a good series win for Wake (got the same wins as UNC and Miami which keeps pace there).

So total, Wake has outscored ACC opponents 67-46. This is an average score of 7.4-5.1. Using 1.83 (as baseballreference does for MLB games) for the expected win-loss, Wake should have 5.99 ACC wins and has 6. We're right where we "should be."
 
Thanks for the info 22890, but we really "should" have 7 ACC wins.

Still trying to figure out how we went all bad news bears in the 9th Friday night to snatch defeat from the jaws of certain victory. :(
 
Thanks for the info 22890, but we really "should" have 7 ACC wins.

Still trying to figure out how we went all bad news bears in the 9th Friday night to snatch defeat from the jaws of certain victory. :(

What's even more frustrating is that we were literally one strike away and had the guy 0-2. Oh well. It's a long season and there will always be adversity. The good teams can overcome it and bounce back. Seems like we responded pretty well so far this year in our times of adversity.

Just need to keep rolling and make sure we position ourselves well for the postseason.
 
Coaches poll is out and Wake is 27th (moved up two spots). We jumped San Diego, South Florida, and TAMU and were jumped by Houston (no real problem there as they have two wins over us).
 
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