Trying to catch up with where we are at after the weekend. It really is tight and there are a lot of variables at work with rain outs, etc. not everyone plays the same amount of games, so it goes by winning percentage. Top 10 teams get in the ACC tournament and top 6 get a bye into pool play. 7-10 play play in games and then play 3 days in a row after that in pool play, so it is brutal to win if you aren't in the top 6, especially for a team like Wake without deep pitching. Below is what everyone has left in the next two weeks with current records.
FSU -- 14-6 -- @ Duke, Miami
Louisville -- 16-8 -- NC State, @WFU
NC State -- 13-9 -- @Louiville, UNC
Clemson -- 13-14 -- @ND
Wake Forest -- 11-13 -- @VTech, Louisville
Notre Dame -- 11-13 -- @UNC, Clemson
Boston College -- 11-14, @GTech
Miami -- 15-6, Pitt, @FSU
UVA -- 14-10, GTech, @VTech
GTech -- 11-11, @UVA, BC
Pitt -- 10-13, @Miami, Duke
UNC -- 10-14, Notre Dame, @NC State
Duke -- 10-14 -- FSU, @Pitt
VTech -- 5-19 -- WFU, @UVA
In regards to the other teams Wake is stacked up against, there will be a lot of friendly fire. For example, BC has 1 series left vs a good Georgia Tech team. They get swept and they are out, win and they are in and maybe top 6. Clemson has just Notre Dame left, so if they sweep them, Notre Dame is probably out and Clemson would be in the top 6. There is a lot more of this.
Too much to analyze, but playing the numbers, FSU, Louisville, Miami, Virginia look to be locks in the top 6. Georgia Tech has a tough series @UVA and then finishes with Virginia Tech, so you would think they would be in. NC State is in good position as well with 2 tough series left @Louisville and UNC. Clemson, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Boston College, Pitt, UNC and Duke are 7 teams battling for 4 spots.
Wake needs to win and NC State to struggle to get in top 6. Pretty brutal to analyze, but the obvious is after a bad weekend, we need to sweep the worst team in the league by a bad margin (Virginia Tech) to have any chance to get in the top 6, with Louisville coming to town next weekend. With the typical Wake optimism, if we win 3 of next 6, we should get in the tournament but in play in game, lose 4 of 6 and probably not make the tournament, lose 5 or 6 of next 6 and don't make the ACC or NCAA tournament. I suppose it is possible to not make the tournament and still get in the NCAA tournament, but it would be borderline.