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Wake Forest #1 NBA Factory

palmab03 said:
How about 10 of em. rudy gay, channing frye, jamal Crawford, andre miller, larry hughes, Kerry kittles, Brandan Wright, Jordan Hill, Brandon Knight, Terrence Ross
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Win Shares through 4 seasons:

Miller: 28.2
gay: 15.2
Ross: 5.1 (through 2 seasons)
frye: 8.4
Aminu: 8.3
Wright: 7.3
Hughes: 7.1
Crawford: 6.6
Hill: 5.9

Knight 4.8 (through 3 compared to Aminu's 5.2)

Kittles was more than 15 years ago.
 
MichDeac25 said:
AFA was in the classic position of a borderline candidate drafted on size and potential. He was an elite rebounder on the college level and that typically translates to the NBA. But he had very little offensive game. He could have stayed and worked on his game for another year (or even two) or he could take the money and supposedly work on his game in the NBA. He basically needed to do what Howard did - expand his range and add a jumper with potential 3-point ability. Howard added that in his junior and senior years.
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Aminu's 4 year minute adjusted progressions:

PER: 9.6, 10.6, 13.7, 13.4

WS/48: .022, .044, .075, .072


Aminu's Soph year at Wake: 15.8, 10.7, 1.3 ast
Howard Soph year at Wake: 13.6, 5.9, 1.8

Age 23 Season:
Aminu: 3.1 WS, 13.4 PER
Howard: 3.5 WS, 15.7 PER

Career Earnings by Age 23:

Aminu: $11,966,680
Howard: $773,400
 
You can't really just look at the #8 picks historically because of random variation. For some reason, the #9 picks have way outperformed the #8 picks in the last 15 years. If Aminu had slipped one spot further would he be more of a bust?

If we want to stick with win shares, Aminu is ranked #14 in his draft class in career win shares after being drafted #8. There are also 12 players in the 2011 draft class with more career win shares despite having one less year of playing. There are 13 players from the 2012 draft class who, even if they don't improve their rate of win share at all, will have more win shares after four years.

So I think it's very fair to say he's been a mild disappointment, but not a complete bust. ESPN has the new "real plus minus" stat that measures how much better teams do offensively and defensively when a player is on the floor. Defensively he ranks #6 among small forwards. Offensively he ranks #52. If he can just develop a little bit on offense he could be a really solid player. Conversely if he winds up with the wrong coach, I think he could have trouble getting off the bench.
 
MichDeac makes it seem as if Aminu could have stayed and developed a 3PT shot and better handle. If that was going to be part of his evolution as a player it would have been evident by now in the NBA.
 
the thing is when looking at win shares he's getting tons of minutes on terrible teams (LAC/Pelicans)

Brandan Wright is getting paid $5 million a year and has a 23 PER. Aminu got a 1 year deal and has a 13 PER.
 
PhDeac said:
We didn't have a chance but that game definitely ended after Dino took AFA out for foul trouble.
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Yeah, I remember AFA picked up two quick fouls and had to sit.

That UK team was loaded. I was very surprised when they lost to WVU in the Elite 8 that year.

but that was definitely one of the most unlikeable collegiate teams in recent memory.
 
RChildress107 said:
Aminu's 4 year minute adjusted progressions:

PER: 9.6, 10.6, 13.7, 13.4

WS/48: .022, .044, .075, .072


Aminu's Soph year at Wake: 15.8, 10.7, 1.3 ast
Howard Soph year at Wake: 13.6, 5.9, 1.8

Age 23 Season:
Aminu: 3.1 WS, 13.4 PER
Howard: 3.5 WS, 15.7 PER

Career Earnings by Age 23:

Aminu: $11,966,680
Howard: $773,400
Click to expand...

What is your obsession with shitty stats? Winshares? Career earnings by age 23? Sure, Aminu was a higher draft pick and made more money early. Sometime after his initial contract, JHo made $9 mill in a single year for the Mavs. Howard has had a better career in the NBA. Hopefully Aminu develops. But he hasn't accomplished anything close to what Howard has yet.

It's a debate whether players can improve their games in the NBA versus college. You're paid to produce in the NBA. Your career depends on it. Hence, you're more apt to stick to what you do. You have a little more freedom to work on your game in college with the coaches. Like I said, it's a debate. But Aminu expanding his offensive game was/is necessary. Elite rebounder though man. Damn good rebounder.
 
Comparing Howard to Aminu is silly. One handled the ball in almost every offensive set he played at Wake, while the other terrified all us whenever he dribbled in the open court.

Not comparable players at all.
 
Maztal said:
Yeah, I remember AFA picked up two quick fouls and had to sit.

That UK team was loaded. I was very surprised when they lost to WVU in the Elite 8 that year.

but that was definitely one of the most unlikeable collegiate teams in recent memory.
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He didn't have to sit. That was my point. We probably weren't going to win that game. We definitely weren't going to win with Aminu sitting for a long stretch in the first half.
 
PhDeac said:
He didn't have to sit. That was my point. We probably weren't going to win that game. We definitely weren't going to win with Aminu sitting for a long stretch in the first half.
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IIRC, we were hanging in there until we took out AFA at which point we got throttled.
 
MichDeac25 said:
What is your obsession with shitty stats? Winshares? Career earnings by age 23? Sure, Aminu was a higher draft pick and made more money early. Sometime after his initial contract, JHo made $9 mill in a single year for the Mavs. Howard has had a better career in the NBA. Hopefully Aminu develops. But he hasn't accomplished anything close to what Howard has yet.

It's a debate whether players can improve their games in the NBA versus college. You're paid to produce in the NBA. Your career depends on it. Hence, you're more apt to stick to what you do. You have a little more freedom to work on your game in college with the coaches. Like I said, it's a debate. But Aminu expanding his offensive game was/is necessary. Elite rebounder though man. Damn good rebounder.
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My point was it seems pretty clear that Howard made the right decision (or at very least a reasonable decision). I don't think many thought Aminu would be as good as Howard. Howard stepped on campus with a more well-rounded offensive skill set than Aminu has even now.

As to your second point: It is not a debate. The debate isn't one about improvement, it's one about timing. Let's assume Aminu stayed 2 years and improved at the same rate (doubtful). His last two seasons (3.1 win shares 13.5 PER) would have been his first two seasons in the NBA. If he improved on that over the next two years he would stand to sign a larger second contract than whatever he will get paid next year.

The more likely scenario is that Aminu is at or nearing his peak as a basketball player. If that's the case then at least he got paid 12 million dollars for it. Go ask James Michael McAdoo if he regrets not going top 10 two years ago.

FWIW I'm not comparing Josh and Aminu as players. Josh was clearly superior. Merely highlighting their different situations (Aminu in a much better position after his sophomore year than Josh was) and pointing out that your assertion that Aminu hasn't improved in the NBA is wrong.
 
Yeah, Aminu was the only guy we had who could compete in the post with that Kentucky team.

The only other memorable part of that game was Chas refusing to shake Cousins' hand during the intros. The culture warriors HATED that move, but it was pretty funny at the time. And kind of smart! Cousins was a headcase.

Finally, we were lucky Aminu stayed a second year. Any talk of him staying a third year, for a coach who didn't recruit him, is whimsical.
 
Yeah, I remember thinking our best chance at winning that game was for Chas to get into Cousins' head and possibly instigate a fight and get him ejected.

RChildress's obsession with win shares is pretty funny as I think he's the only person on the boards who uses that stat, but his underlying point is correct.
 
palmab03 said:
the thing is when looking at win shares he's getting tons of minutes on terrible teams (LAC/Pelicans)

Brandan Wright is getting paid $5 million a year and has a 23 PER. Aminu got a 1 year deal and has a 13 PER.
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meh, most #8 picks end up on shitty teams to start their careers. Wright's numbers were likely hurt by his injury history (Aminu has played more NBA games despite being drafted 3 years later), he is being paid that much because the mavs were willing to take a chance on him and ignore his injury history. He also greatly benefited from a change in scenery.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
Yeah, I remember thinking our best chance at winning that game was for Chas to get into Cousins' head and possibly instigate a fight and get him ejected.

RChildress's obsession with win shares is pretty funny as I think he's the only person on the boards who uses that stat, but his underlying point is correct.
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It's convenient and consistent. It also values the actual object of the game. Would you rather have Wright (23.7 PER, 4.8 WS) for 55 games this year or Gortat for 77 (17.6 PER, 7.6 WS)?
 
Wright because you don't win a championship with a team of Gortats, but can with a team of Wrights.
 
Win shares has some value as a metric. But there's a reason it's become obsolete in baseball and it hasn't gained acceptance for the NBA (let alone college). You most certainly overuse it.
 
Maztal said:
Yeah, I remember AFA picked up two quick fouls and had to sit.

That UK team was loaded. I was very surprised when they lost to WVU in the Elite 8 that year.

but that was definitely one of the most unlikeable collegiate teams in recent memory.
Click to expand...

god dammit, now we're going to have to read some more mdmh drivel
 
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