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WF Tennis (WS Open Starts Saturday)

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Looks like you got sucked into this (and this is the first that I've posted on the greater effect of WF men's tennis loss to NC State back in March).

WF recruited kids that play Davis Cup for their country. The upside to that is that WF won the ACC for the first time in forever, and has a legit shot to win the Natty over the next few weeks. The downside was that it left the team vulnerable for a conference match in March. Will take that any day. If WF can't beat UCLA, they aren't winning the Natty period. If they lose to UCLA, it won't be because a depleted WF team lost to NC State two months before. Also, far from clear that a WF win over NC State would've made a difference in the seeding. WF is the #6 seed at 29-5; tOSU was the #5 seed and went 30-2; TCU is the #4 seed and went 27-3 and the #3 seed UCLA went 22-2.

As for your premise based upon the % of beating UCLA (60%)versus tOSU (70%), that is at best a wild-ass guess. UCLA is 22-2; tOSU is 30-2. Both lost to UNC 4-2 (WF beat UNC 4-3). tOSU beat VT (4-0); WF struggled with VT twice. UCLA lost to UVA 6-1 (WF beat UVA 4-3); UCLA beat UGA; tOSU lost to UGA. WF already won the ACC Championship despite the NC State loss; WF can win the Natty despite the NC State loss. Kind of crazy to me the focus on that one match given that WF has had its best season in program history.
 
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Pilchard said:
Looks like you got sucked into this (and this is the first that I've posted on the greater effect of WF men's tennis loss to NC State back in March).

WF recruited kids that play Davis Cup for their country. The upside to that is that WF won the ACC for the first time in forever, and has a legit shot to win the Natty over the next few weeks. The downside was that it left the team vulnerable for a conference match in March. Will take that any day. If WF can't beat UCLA, they aren't winning the Natty period. If they lose to UCLA, it won't be because a depleted WF team lost to NC State two months before. Also, far from clear that a WF win over NC State would've made a difference in the seeding. WF is the #6 seed at 29-5; tOSU was the #5 seed and went 30-2; TCU is the #4 seed and went 27-3 and the #3 seed UCLA went 22-2.

As for your premise based upon the % of beating UCLA (60%)versus tOSU (70%), that is at best a wild-ass guess. UCLA is 22-2; tOSU is 30-2. Both lost to UNC 4-2 (WF beat UNC 4-3). tOSU beat VT (4-0); WF struggled with VT twice. UCLA lost to UVA 6-1 (WF beat UVA 4-3); UCLA beat UGA; tOSU lost to UGA. WF already won the ACC Championship despite the NC State loss; WF can win the Natty despite the NC State loss. Kind of crazy to me the focus on that one match given that WF has had its best season in program history.
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The fact that you're citing records shows me that you don't really know what's going with the seeding because it's done almost completely off the computer rankings, not records - if you lose to top 5 teams, you could have like 8 losses and be ahead of us in the rankings/seeding. The only adjustments the committee makes to the seedings are sometimes moving a team up or down a spot or two based upon head to head (this is why UCLA is #3 - they are really #2 in the rankings but they lost to UNC indoors).

Obviously my guess on exact numbers for OSU and UCLA is made up, but I think I have a pretty good handle on college tennis, and it's my opinion the UCLA is clearly better than OSU - especially outdoors. UCLA hasn't lost a match outdoors all season. As long as that's true then the actual percentages don't matter.

I don't disagree with anything you said about recruiting guys that play Davis Cup. It's not even about that one match, we lost other matches that have hurt us too - in ways that the other top 4 teams haven't. The sole point that has been debated ad infinitum over the past three months is whether losses matter. To me, it's pretty obvious they do. As in if you run a model for our probabilities of winning the natty as the #3 seed (which is the lowest that we would be if losses actually didn't matter) then our chances are higher than they are as a #6 seed. By how much? Who knows, but they are higher. Maybe that's too KenPommy for some people, but that's the way I'm coming at it
 
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Good lord... anyone arguing that losses don't matter or that seeding doesn't matter, is out of their mind. Of course they matter. How much is a matter of debate, of course, but they matter.
 
Guys, please shut up, the loss hurt but it didn't end the season. Go Deacs, win the championship, and don't lose anymore if only so these donks don't keep talking about it.
 
I'm happy the Deacs avoided Ohio State. They've had an incredible year. Not only did they go undefeated in the Big 10, but they didn't drop a single point in the regular season (meaning they won every match 4-0), the first time that's been done in Big 10 history. They also have the #1 ranked player in the country (Torpegaard).

I also like that we avoided Cal. They have 5 ranked players and will be a really tough out.
 
The singles and doubles participants were announced today. Mansouri and Petros made it in singles and Seraphim/Mansouri in dubs.

Guerin is the second alternate in women's singles.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
Seems like the formula undervalues really good teams in bad conferences.
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If they don't play good non-conference teams, then yes. But there is plenty of opportunity to play non-conference matches. Of our 34 total matches this year, 19 of them were non-conference matches. The max number of matches that count in the rankings is 10. So even if there are no good teams in your conference, you can still get all the ranked wins you need in non-conference play. I don't have a lot of sympathy for teams who are under-ranked because of poor non-conference scheduling (see: Virginia Tech men this year).

Pepperdine is ranked in the top 10 on the women's side even though they're one of the only good teams in their conference. If you schedule well out of conference then being in a bad conference can actually help you because you don't take losses.
 
First round match vs. Coastal Carolina is today at 3pm.

If we win, we'll play winner of Michigan and East Tennessee tomorrow at 3pm.
 
Is there any chance we host matches beyond this weekend? I can't make it.
 
Big Hairy Deacs gonna roll through the weekend without dropping a match, nay a set!
 
i'm heading to athens tomorrow to see mens baylor-fsu followed by uga annihilating sc state and the wake women upsetting uga.
 
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