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Donald Impeachment

birdman said:
The GOP is a principle-less turd pile. It never mattered how the Dems handled this. They need to just focus on the media narratives now and convince people like you to vote for who ever the Dem nominee is.
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Pretty much.
 
Somehow, in some way, it's always, always the LibDems fault. If Trump gets reelected I have little doubt that there will be many Trumpites on social media and news articles who will somehow blame their vote on the Democrats for not giving them a choice in the matter. Their hands were tied. It's never their fault, nor do they have any responsibility for their actions, apparently.
 
Highland Deac said:
Yep. It didn't matter what evidence the House Dems were able to present, Senate Republicans were always going to worm their way out of removing him from office. As to why the Democrats pushed impeachment anyway if they knew it would fail in the Senate, the answer is because it was the right thing to do, certainly in the eyes of history. And by "right" I mean that the evidence clearly warrants both impeachment and removal. I suppose some would find that shocking given the cynicism of this age, but there it is.
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Pretty much
 
any chance whatsoever the House tries to open another inquiry to get Bolton in there to testify?
 
The House should have subpoenaed Bolton and litigated it and had Trump fight Bolton's testimony and Bolton's book. I think the Democrats would have been better off dragging this out further into the election cycle, but that is only because the attention span of Americans is only slightly longer than the attention span of a house fly. Maybe they should have just kept dragging it out and dragging it out and never actually impeached - just threaten to impeach him if he is reelected. That might have made some people so over it by November that they stay home, knowing that if Trump wins, he would immediately be impeached. It also would have been good, in hindsight, to add extortion, but that is really only because Trump's team got Dershowitz to come up with some bullshit argument about abuse of power, and Dershowitz would have done the same with extortion and given them cover.

Most of this criticism requires hindsight, which is not fair to Pelosi et al. In all, I agree they did pretty well with the impeachment fight if they were hellbent on bringing it quickly. I am afraid that Trump is way way way better at marketing and spin than the Democrats, though, and with 10 months to spin it, the narrative will be fully in his favor. Typically the Democrats are so bad at marketing and spin that I have to give them a solid B+ on this effort so far.

Regardless, an "exonerated" Trump, elected to a second term in a landslide over Bernie, with no meaningful fear whatsoever, has the potential to bring the whole thing down. Buckle up.
 
FOX NEWS and dolan are just trembling with excitement over blasting

FULL EXONERATION

over the planet forever and ever
 
Right now Fox is too busy promoting Trump's campaign rally in Iowa to focus on Trump's impending acquittal in the Senate. "HE'S FIGHTING FOR US. Trump Faithful Fired Up By Impeachment, Vow Trial Will 'backfire' On Democrats in 2020." Nice objective news story there, Fox. They should just change their logo to the GOP elephant with FOX written on it. LOL.
 
I modeled the probability of conviction as a function of possible Democratic actions and made a figure to, hopefully, help folks understand the relationship. I’m happy to share my R code if anyone needs it:

2cc77571c0d6577c3fca6bff7b6d672c.jpeg
 
birdman said:
I modeled the probability of conviction as a function of possible Democratic actions and made a figure to, hopefully, help folks understand the relationship. I’m happy to share my R code if anyone needs it:

2cc77571c0d6577c3fca6bff7b6d672c.jpeg
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Both axises (axisi?) are labeled. A+!
 
DCDeac said:
Trump was always going to be acquitted, never a doubt there. Given that reality, the impeachment looks pretty successful. You've got Lamar calling out the President as guilty but telling the voters to take care of it, you have 75% of America angry that no witnesses were allowed, you have over half the country in favor of Trump's removal heading into an election, you have Schiff looking like the smartest guy in the room getting accolades even from Republicans, and you have the time bomb of an angry John Bolton and his book tour set to drop right after the trial ends. Good chance it'll look like finding the murder weapon covered in the defendant's fingerprints wrapped in bloody rags in his trunk a week after he was acquitted on a technicality.

Trump escapes, nothing feels good about his "win." At the same time, the disgust for the Senate's refusal to even consider evidence and the stark reality of Trump's control over the entire elected right has created an odd coalition of actual conservatives and democrats no longer in the political fray. That's a lot of OWG's who'd vote Biden.
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I agree with this take. It's up to Democrats up and down the ballot to make Trump's corruption a core issue in this election. We know there's going to be a steady drip of information over the next 10 months. We have to make sure it doesn't get normalized.
 
PhDeac said:
I agree with this take. It's up to Democrats up and down the ballot to make Trump's corruption a core issue in this election. We know there's going to be a steady drip of information over the next 10 months. We have to make sure it doesn't get normalized.
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it will be interesting to see, or if it'll be "we need to move on and focus on the issues actually affecting Americans."
 
BarcaDeac said:
it will be interesting to see, or if it'll be "we need to move on and focus on the issues actually affecting Americans."
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Based on polling and interviews, impeachment doesn’t seem to be a huge priority for a lot of voters.

Dems are going to need some sort of “vote for me because” message other than “I’m not Trump”.
 
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