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General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

RJKarl said:
It will be interesting to see what the Hispanic turnout rate is. I can't see Trump getting 20% of the Hispanic vote.
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Thought I'd go back through this and see just how wrong predictions were. To be clear I told my wife a month before the election that Hillary was going to win in a landslide of amazing proportions. Then I watched things tighten and wondered whether I'd obviously missed the mark and I did.

Anyway, on this one - Trump won 29% of the Hispanic vote. Interesting that Bush once won 44% of that voting group. Anyway, he improved on Romney's performance despite his awful rhetoric.
 
JManslow said:
Yeah, I also think the Senate could see a huge swing. I just think Trump is the most toxic candidate since Wallace and is going to implode the Republican Party.


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He is like George Wallace. I think he had imploded the GOP before the election. The candidates had enough time to run on their own merits perhaps?
 
bobknightfan said:
I still don't understand how some people think we are going to go from a situation where a state like Pennsylvania...which has voted Democratic in the last six elections....is somewhere between tied and +7 for the Democrats to a 20% Goldwater/McGovern debacle win for Hillary in November. Is she the favorite? Certainly...but this thing is far from over.
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Did some real math apparently.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Trump doesn't believe in data mining and Reince had to convince him that $140M of joint fundraising would go to quant analytics. Hillary's and Obama's first joint appearance will be in Green Bay next week. Not Milwaukee or Madison. From 2008 & 2012, Obama's campaign vets know exactly where the persuadable voters in swing states are. They'll use Biden in Bucks County and Scranton, PA. Know where to campaign and where to spend on GOTV in large metro areas.

Trump can get huge friendly crowds in red states or hostile protestors in areas he won't win and hope for riots, but doesn't have a deep enough surrogate bench to get traction in swing districts in swing states.
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Good analysis. But ultimately Trump did get to voters in various districts.
 
RJKarl said:
They could ping pong Trump's psyche from all directions.

I hope they only jab between now and the end of August. If they go after too strongly and too soon, he'll melt down and there will be time to replace him. If he melts down, right before or right after Labor Day, they are stuck with him.

The other thing is if they don't him that hard for 6-8 weeks, he'll get cocky and open himself up even more. Then, they hit from all sides and on different issues.

It will be fun to see him explode like a water balloon or even better a pinata. :)
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None of this came to pass.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Michele Bachmann briefly left the witness protection program to appear on TV for Trump last night. She'll help be a yuge help in MN & IA. Brewer & Arapaio will blanket AZ and additionally gift wrap CO, NV, and NM. Brown and Biden will tag team PA, OH, and MI while Kasich, Portman, Ryan, Walker, and Johnson won't be seen with Trump in their states. Trump's hoping for a mass shitstorm of riots in Cleveland. Will have to spend way more time and resources than McCain or Mitt in IN, NC, MO, AZ, GA, and UT. Also will have less money and weaker national and swing state organizations than they had. Trump's not just hurting for surrogates, he also doesn't have anyone remotely close to Obama or Bubba as fundraisers.

Bill & Hillary split up CA with Bubba in SoCal and HRC in NorCal (mostly fundraising). Trump's terrified of Bubba mocking him on the stump, so he wants to bring up all the Clinton baggage. Best case scenario for Trump is that Bubba predominantly fundraises, although they'll also selectively use him in FL, VA, NC, and NH in the Fall.

Obama will also primarily fundraise, but he'll be a Fall closer to rev up voters in Philly, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, Denver, and Las Vegas. Relishes giving Trump shit and wants to take a final victory lap, but also has to keep donor relationships warm for his library. Will fundraise a lot in CA, NYC, and Chicago.

Warren & Sanders will blanket college campuses, but also be used in WA, OR, IA, MN, WI, NH, MA, RI, VT, and ME. The Clintons can use BFF Howard Dean in those states too just for yucks.

With two minority females and no 'Pubs on the Senate ballot in CA, Dems only need to fundraise in CA, but could use Obama and Bubba for GOTV events in LA and SF. Also could use Biden in SD and Orange County, Bernie and Warren in Oakland and Sac, and Castro or Perez in San Jose, Inland Empire, and the Central Valley. Depends if they want to use CA to pad national popular vote totals or allocate those resources elsewhere.

Dems aren't worried about getting to 270 EVs. Bigger questions are do they want to run up the popular vote margin by padding the score in CA, NY, or IL, spend more resources than necessary in states with vulnerable GOP Senators, or give 'Pubs a chilling look at coming attractions by taking serious runs at AZ and GA or selectively going after significant popular vote pockets in TX. Anything above 52 Dems in the Senate would be gravy. Not Dems' fault that GOP base didn't care/want to change after 2012. Only cost them three more SC Justices and the Latino vote for the foreseeable future, but maybe true believers will finally win the definitive final battles on immigration reform, abortion, gun control, and LGBT rights in 2020 or 2024 at the very latest.

Kaine would be a safe, boring governing pick, but Castro would be a much stronger electoral and bid for the future pick. Franken or Perez would split the difference.
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There is no point in digesting all of this. Suffice to say this would have seemed like a logical plan but it didn't happen.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
If you believe that jobless and underemployed Republicans are that worried about the tax burden on their benevolent job creating masters, then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

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This wasn't incorrect. It just wasn't listening to what the working class voters were being told by Trump and hearing.
 
jhmd2000 said:
I linked the article because it was interesting; not because I wrote it. That's what you do when you're open to new ideas.

The broader point is that Trump's base didn't just stumble out of a doublewide spontaneously inserting themselves into the political process because they like his hair. They do so in protest of the failures of both parties. Do you agree with that, or have you decided that his voters aren't smart enough to realize they have been failed by the major parties (or worse, do you think ---against the caution of the author of that article--that his voters are just too dumb to appreciate your brilliant and skillful representation of best interests they don't know they have)?
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Again, the basic premise here proved to be very correct even if the language was written in the middle of an emotional battle.
 
cville deac said:
So much this. The establishment and neocons are in denial and don't recognize that a significant portion of their base (mostly Reagan Dems and a lot of the Christian Right) voted for Drumpf for a reason. They like what he is selling, and they don't like what the establishment and neocons are selling.
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This proved true as well. And it actually applied to both parties.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Really the only hope for GOP is finding ways to suppress the vote and they are pushing this hard. Problem is they can't get it through in swing states. Got it done in south but that was gonna vote for the red team anyway. I really think this election will clinch CO & NV for blue team permanently.
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Both CO and NV went blue in this election.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Jeb's kid is only 2 years younger than the Castros? Cruz is pretty much hosed with antiquated policies and slightly younger, much more personable and charismatic in-state competition coming up fast.

GOP base doesn't understand that AZ will go blue before TX goes purple and Dems will soon have 270 reliably blue EC votes without TX, FL, or OH. Advocating rounding up and deporting 12M people accelerates the process. Can't imagine P wants any part of the round up or the wall. W and Gary Johnson (along with Jeb) didn't, but McCain's hitched his final campaign to Trump.
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Unless pushing immigration turns Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania purple only at the expense of Arizona going the same (but not flipping). Note - Trump's long term impact on GOP platform remains very much in flux given the hyperbolic chamber we now all live in.
 
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