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General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

birdman said:
The spatial distribution of the turn was what was flawed. Clinton won the popular vote (so far) by 1.3 %. She is currently up to 63.5 million votes, only about 1.5 million behind Obama in 2012, she just didn't win votes the right locations. And really, the only really bad states were the predictions for Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
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In states that flipped to Trump or were 5 points or closer this cycle, Clinton did approximately 5.5% worse on average than Obama in 2012. Comparing her raw vote totals to Obama isn't really as helpful as comparing her % performance in swing states given the overall difference in turnout.

ETA: Dave wasserman stats
 
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DeacMan said:
I don't think those were the only "bad" states. Those were states that turned. But she had other "bad" outcomes relative to polling. Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, among others, were all "bad" relative to expectations.

And the larger point of this exercise is not the polling but in watching how people here thought issues were being perceived by the populace. There were an awful lot of predictions that Trump was going to get trounced because of his positions. I know you personally aren't pointing at this per se, but others pointing at Trump winning 30% of Hispanics and blaming it on "low turnout" is really silly IMO, or should I say not interesting. Even if I presume it was "low turnout" it just begs the next question - why was that voter group's turnout low? Wasn't there a ton at stake for Hispanics? Because that was the very conventional wisdom on these Boards going back and reading the thread. Pontificating on what happened (there was low turnout for that voting block) but not getting at the root cause isn't interesting.
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As far as the polling data goes, Ohio and Iowa were pretty solidly Trump for several weeks leading up to the election. MN was closer than expected but in PA, WI, and MI (and maybe NH) sampling error was so bad that the predicted outcome flipped. Nate Silver had all three of those as a Clinton win with ~>70% likelihood and she lost all three...that is bad polling and therefore bad inference. I am a bit of a stats geek so I get focused on that aspect of it (my profession is partially focused on sampling bird populations to estimate demographics). As far and your intention of pointing out erroneous assessment from board posters, have at it, but I think much of that over confidence was rooted in over confident polling data and projection models that failed to effective account for sampling error in polling data.
 
ChrisL68 said:
People had no way of knowing the Russian/FBI influence either.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk
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Love this shit. Stephen Moore, Trump's main economic advisor and a crank, told GOP members of congress that they are no longer members of Reagans party. I especially love these comments to The Hill:

After such a transformative experience — and after witnessing Trump’s stunning victory — Moore now believes Republican House members should be less ideologically pure and instead help Trump give the voters what he promised them.

“He wants to spend all this money on infrastructure,” Moore said, referring to Trump’s potentially trillion-dollar infrastructure package.

It’s a massive spending bill that naturally appeals far more to Democrats than Republicans. Moore, who has worked for the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation, is not a fan of the stimulus package, but he is prepared to support it.

“I don’t want to spend all that money on infrastructure,” Moore said. “I think it’s mostly a waste of money. But if the voters want it, they should get it.”

“If Trump says build a wall then he should build a wall. If Trump says renegotiate TPP [the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal], he should renegotiate TPP.”






http://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...use-republicans-youre-no-longer-reagans-party
 
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This is fantastic too. Trump is already blowing off daily intelligence briefings.

President-elect Donald Trump has received two classified intelligence briefings since his surprise election victory earlier this month, a frequency that is notably lower — at least so far — than that of his predecessors, current and former U.S. officials said.


“The last three presidents-elect used the intelligence briefings offered during the transition to literally study the national security issues that they would be facing and the world leaders with whom they would be interacting as president,” said Michael Morell, former deputy CIA director, who supported Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton during the campaign.

“The president-elect is missing out on a golden opportunity to learn about the national security threats and challenges facing our nation,” Morell said, “knowledge that would be extremely valuable to have when he takes the oath of office and when he steps into the Situation Room for the first time.”


https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...c643c4-b1ae-11e6-be1c-8cec35b1ad25_story.html
 
I forgot the margins in Michigan and Wisconsin were that narrow.
 
DeaconSig said:
Here is a true believer for you, DeacMan.
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I have no idea what is going to happen in 2020. I hope he creates more jobs and protects the US at home and abroad. I truly hope he helps unite the country. I am just saying everyone that has said he would do this or do that or have no chance. At what point do you say ok well you know what. He has only been POTUS Elect for 2 weeks maybe I will wait to see what happens or at least wait for him to be president. I mean at what point do you get tired of being wrong and then blaming everyone else for it.
 
DeaconSig said:
Meant to respond to this earlier. I hope President Trump is the best President in this country's history. That being said, would you bet on him being a net positive or negative for your party by 2020?
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Deacs89 said:
I have no idea what is going to happen in 2020. I hope he creates more jobs and protects the US at home and abroad. I truly hope he helps unite the country. I am just saying everyone that has said he would do this or do that or have no chance. At what point do you say ok well you know what. He has only been POTUS Elect for 2 weeks maybe I will wait to see what happens or at least wait for him to be president. I mean at what point do you get tired of being wrong and then blaming everyone else for it.
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Try reading my post again. If that doesn't work, have somebody kick you in the nuts and try again.
 
DeaconSig said:
Try reading my post again. If that doesn't work, have somebody kick you in the nuts and try again.
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a little misleading as I was responding to this post of yours. "Here is a true believer for you, DeacMan"

Maybe you should try reading your own posts again? then when you have time and nobody is around forgive yourself. its ok.
 
YO 89, share some sweet takes you heard around the table yesterday on the #takesgiving thread. It's time to come together as a community.
 
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