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John Collins and the draft

In what world are Schroder, Prince, and JC comparable to Steph, Klay, and Draymond?
 
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jaybone, don't forget the Heat got lucky Detroit took Darko and Melo and Bosh went before Wade.
 
jaybone said:
Obviously, I disagree. Normally, finishing 40-42 is a terrible place to be in (in the new NBA world order), but if your top 3 players are 23, 19, and 21, that's a good place to be IMO. It is where Golden State was 4 or 5 years ago.

IMO, every championship team has to get lucky in the draft or have Lebron James. You can sign free agents or James, but I feel like the Boston Celtics were the last championship team that essentially did it with free agents not named James. You could argue that Rondo was a steal at where he was drafted though.

The Heat and Cleveland got James. And Cleveland had the luxury of being awful for a few years and getting Kyrie and being in position to draft Wiggins and trade him for Love.

The Spurs got lucky getting Kawhi mid 1st round and Parker and Manu in the late 1st and 2nd rounds. The Warriors got lucky getting Green in the 2nd round. If he wasn't fat at the time and the same asshole then he is now, he'd have been drafted in the top 15 (still too low).

So back to the Hawks. They have gotten great value where Schroeder was picked and it seems Prince and Collins the same. Let's see what they can do. But I bet you Atl is closer to 40 wins than they are to 25. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they are 5 or 6 games over .500 after 20/25 games and the wheels come off mid-season after teams have figured out how to stop the three kids and they don't adjust.
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ATL is GSW from 4-5 years ago? GTFO.

It took Curry a while to get to superstar status, but by the end of year 4 (Klay's second and Draymond's first), he was the best player on his team, a clear cut top 10 PG, and went 47-35. That team's second and third best players were 29 (Lee) and 28 (Bogut).

A Schroder, Collins, Prince core might be decent someday (I doubt it but who knows), but even if one of them blows up this year which veterans are filling the void to get this team >30 wins?

The Bucks only squeezed out 33 wins two years ago with a young core of Giannis, Monroe, and Middleton. That feels like the Hawks core's ceiling, not its floor.

There is some severe overreaction to Summer League play in this thread.
 
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Even if the Hawks were capable of 42 wins, they'd be stupid to try and get there this year.

They have three first round picks next year. They should go for a top 5 pick and then try to hit on another sleeper with the Wolves and Rockets picks (likely to fall in the 20's). Then you've got 6-7 prospects under age 24 and you can spend the next few years figuring out what you have.
 
Ayo said:
In what world are Schroder, Prince, and JC comparable to Steph, Klay, and Draymond?
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when Steph and Klay and Dray were 23, 19, and 20. It is a hope. I am extremely bullish on both Prince and JC, indifferent to Schroeder, could be the hair. He lacks size.
 
RChildress107 said:
ATL is GSW from 4-5 years ago? GTFO.

It took Curry a while to get to superstar status, but by the end of year 4 (Klay's second and Draymond's first), he was the best player on his team, a clear cut top 10 PG, and went 47-35. That team's second and third best players were 29 (Lee) and 28 (Bogut).

A Schroder, Collins, Prince core might be decent someday (I doubt it but who knows), but even if one of them blows up this year which veterans are filling the void to get this team >30 wins?

The Bucks only squeezed out 33 wins two years ago with a young core of Giannis, Monroe, and Middleton. That feels like the Hawks core's ceiling, not its floor.

There is some severe overreaction to Summer League play in this thread.
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You sort of accidentally confirmed what I was saying. It took Curry a bunch of years. Klay was a nice shooter his first year, Green played about 15 minutes off the bench. Again, Schroeder is the weak link in this picture for me. Prince looked really smooth in the playoffs last year. He was the Hawks third or fourth best player and he was playing great D. He's a poor man's Kawhi, again, IMO. If I was a GM, I consider him a championship quality piece.
 
Ayo said:
In what world are Schroder, Prince, and JC comparable to Steph, Klay, and Draymond?
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In the realm that is the offseason, ANYTHING is possible. It's a mythical world where one can dream about unicorns, dragons, leprechauns, and teams that can unseat the Warriors. It's a fun time for all.
 
jaybone said:
when Steph and Klay and Dray were 23, 19, and 20. It is a hope. I am extremely bullish on both Prince and JC, indifferent to Schroeder, could be the hair. He lacks size.
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Steph @ 23: 28mpg, 21.2 PER, 3.4 BPM
Schroder 23: 31 mpg, 16.1 PER, -0.8 BPM

Klay @21 (rookie year): 24 mpg, 14.9 PER, -1.9 BPM
Prince @ 22 (rookie year): 16mpg, 9.8 PER, -2.3 BPM

Collins @ 19 sophomore year: 35.9 PER, 7.9 BPM
Green @ 20 junior (first year of college BPM): 24.9 PER, 13.6 BPM

Please stop.
 
jaybone said:
You sort of accidentally confirmed what I was saying. It took Curry a bunch of years. Klay was a nice shooter his first year, Green played about 15 minutes off the bench. Again, Schroeder is the weak link in this picture for me. Prince looked really smooth in the playoffs last year. He was the Hawks third or fourth best player and he was playing great D. He's a poor man's Kawhi, again, IMO. If I was a GM, I consider him a championship quality piece.
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Not really. Steph was better as a rookie than Schroeder is after year 4. By a lot.

Prince's rookie year was similar to draymond's and worse than Klay's. So basically you are projecting a Draymond type leap by Prince or Collins based on 5 summer league games and a decent playoff series while ignoring the massive chasm at PG.

Where are the Warriors the past 5 years if they keep Monta Ellis instead of Steph? That's the Hawks ceiling even if Collins/Prince turn into a top 10 player and a top 40 player respectively.
 
Just to be clear, that is what I have been saying - not, of course, that Atl is going to challenge for a championship in the next two or three years, but rather positioning themselves for cap space + draft picks + young talent. That is all.

Everyone is trying to find their trio. Houston, like Cleveland did, is trying to find their TODAY stars to run with Harden. Hawks may (read: may) have their trio and they are 23, 19, and 20 which is pretty great for them moving forward. I am high on Prince not based on Summer league, but based on the last 25 games he played last year. I am high on Collins because of what he did at Wake last year affirmed by summer league. Schroeder, whom I am least high on, is not in Summer league. He seems good. Is he Parker good? Not seeing it, but he's only been a starter for one year. He's fast, but he's not that big. Parker was fast but not that big.

Everyone needs some luck to build a dynasty. Spurs got it with Kawhi. Dubs got it with Green IMO. Did the Hawks get lucky with Collins? With Prince? Dunno, but time will tell. Kawhi was a bit better his first year than Prince was last year, but he had a better system and players to work in. But Kawhi took 5 years to become Kawhi and Curry took about the same to get to where he is + good health.

I'd rather be a Hawks fan than a Kings, Knicks, Toronto, Charlotte or Dallas fan for the next 3 years.
 
jaybone said:
Just to be clear, that is what I have been saying - not, of course, that Atl is going to challenge for a championship in the next two or three years, but rather positioning themselves for cap space + draft picks + young talent. That is all.

Everyone is trying to find their trio. Houston, like Cleveland did, is trying to find their TODAY stars to run with Harden. Hawks may (read: may) have their trio and they are 23, 19, and 20 which is pretty great for them moving forward. I am high on Prince not based on Summer league, but based on the last 25 games he played last year. I am high on Collins because of what he did at Wake last year affirmed by summer league. Schroeder, whom I am least high on, is not in Summer league. He seems good. Is he Parker good? Not seeing it, but he's only been a starter for one year. He's fast, but he's not that big. Parker was fast but not that big.

Everyone needs some luck to build a dynasty. Spurs got it with Kawhi. Dubs got it with Green IMO. Did the Hawks get lucky with Collins? With Prince? Dunno, but time will tell. Kawhi was a bit better his first year than Prince was last year, but he had a better system and players to work in. But Kawhi took 5 years to become Kawhi and Curry took about the same to get to where he is + good health.

I'd rather be a Hawks fan than a Kings, Knicks, Toronto, Charlotte or Dallas fan for the next 3 years.
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1. Prince is 22

2. It's fair to point out that most stars take time to develop. But when projecting young players you have to look at where they actually are. We have enough data on Schroder to be confident he is never going to be a starting PG on a championship caliber team. We have less data on Collins and Prince but we can say that they don't fit the typical profile of young players that turn into superstars.

3. The Kings and Mavs have more to be excited about than the Hawks and at least the Knicks have a guy who could potentially be the best player on a championship team one day
 
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RChildress107 said:
1. Prince is 22

2. It's fair to point out that most stars take time to develop. But when projecting young players you have to look at where they actually are. We have enough data on Schroder to be confident he is never going to be a starting PG on a championship caliber team. We have less data on Collins and Prince but we can say that they don't fit the typical profile of young players that turn into superstars.

3. The Kings and Mavs have more to be excited about than the Hawks and at least the Knicks have a guy who could potentially be the best player on a championship team one day
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Totally disagree. On two of your three points.

1. 22 okay. And for what it is worth, I haven't seen a second of his summer league play. I have no idea what he is doing, this is all last season observation.

2. Not entirely fair to count Schroeder's first 4 years as typical 4 years as he was an 18/19 year old backup out of Germany. Parker is the comparison, not Curry, who came in older and more experienced. Parker, he is currently not matching up either, but Parker was a forced starter mid 1st year. Schroeder was not. But Parker's ceiling is what I am considering for Schroeder, not Curry. If memory serves, Parker has won championships. Also, there is PLENTY of data to support Collins being a future superstar. There are TONS of mid first round picks to compare him to. Let's start with Giannis. To say he doesn't fit the profile is untrue and lazy.

3. No. Dallas has one potential player that prove to be a championship level player 3 years from now; Sac maybe two? Dallas does have a kick ass owner, but Sac does not. And the Knicks are mess and everyone knows it, including their fans. As a franchise, you are marketing and selling hope. Explain to me Dallas and Sacramento's path to a championship on the backs of current ownership, mgmt, coaching, and players? Hint: Dallas is the easier argument. Atlanta has the goods. They just have to get out of their own way with the continued racist stories coming out.
 
jaybone said:
Obviously, I disagree. Normally, finishing 40-42 is a terrible place to be in (in the new NBA world order), but if your top 3 players are 23, 19, and 21, that's a good place to be IMO. It is where Golden State was 4 or 5 years ago.

IMO, every championship team has to get lucky in the draft or have Lebron James. You can sign free agents or James, but I feel like the Boston Celtics were the last championship team that essentially did it with free agents not named James. You could argue that Rondo was a steal at where he was drafted though.

The Heat and Cleveland got James. And Cleveland had the luxury of being awful for a few years and getting Kyrie and being in position to draft Wiggins and trade him for Love.

The Spurs got lucky getting Kawhi mid 1st round and Parker and Manu in the late 1st and 2nd rounds. The Warriors got lucky getting Green in the 2nd round. If he wasn't fat at the time and the same asshole then he is now, he'd have been drafted in the top 15 (still too low).

So back to the Hawks. They have gotten great value where Schroeder was picked and it seems Prince and Collins the same. Let's see what they can do. But I bet you Atl is closer to 40 wins than they are to 25. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they are 5 or 6 games over .500 after 20/25 games and the wheels come off mid-season after teams have figured out how to stop the three kids and they don't adjust.
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Sounds like we have a line set at 32.5. Jaybone - How much ya willing to put up on the over?
 
jaybone said:
$1000 - as long as you'll hold the money for us - oh trustworthy one.
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I haven't thought about the Hawks and I sure as shit don't wanna bet against Johnny Collins, I'm just the linemaker.

Who's taking the under?
 
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