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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

RChildress107 said:
It’s almost as if talent matters. OSU starts a 5* redshirt junior, a 4* senior, a 4* redshirt senior, a 4* freshman, and a JuCo transfer. Their talent score weighted for experience and minutes is 4.13*. Wake’s this year is 3.7. Next year it will be close to 4.2.
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OK? They finished 7-11 in the league and lost to Rutgers in the B1G tournament with a more talented team last year, and suffered a lot of attrition. Rather than sitting on their ass and taking a "wait and see approach", they parted ways with an almost sure HoF coach in Matta (yes, I'm aware he technically "resigned"), conducted a lengthy coaching search, and ended up with what appears to be a home run in Holtmann.

Basically the exact opposite of what Wake would do, and what I'm sure you'd want them to do. I've said multiple times that I agree we cannot fire Manning after this year, but vehemently arguing, over and over again, that he's a good coach who will turn things around is a played-out shtick.
 
Manning clearly can't win with a deficient roster. It's obvious we have problems with this roster, but the on the floor performance in year 4 is just unacceptable. We should not be this bad.

Next year he needs to show that he can win big with a talented roster. Anything less than two NCAA tournament wins and he should be sent packing.
 
Holtmann would have been a great hire when he was at Gardner Webb. Wellman probably never considered him.
 
tigerswood said:
OK? They finished 7-11 in the league and lost to Rutgers in the B1G tournament with a more talented team last year, and suffered a lot of attrition. Rather than sitting on their ass and taking a "wait and see approach", they parted ways with an almost sure HoF coach in Matta (yes, I'm aware he technically "resigned"), conducted a lengthy coaching search, and ended up with what appears to be a home run in Holtmann.

Basically the exact opposite of what Wake would do, and what I'm sure you'd want them to do. I've said multiple times that I agree we cannot fire Manning after this year, but vehemently arguing, over and over again, that he's a good coach who will turn things around is a played-out shtick.
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So they fired their coach because he went 7-11 with an incredibly talented team? And their new coach came in and performed about how you would expect a coach with that amount of talent to perform?

I’ll keep that example in mind the next time we have a team as talented as Ohio State that goes 7-11 in conference. For instance, it would be a great example of what to do if Manning goes 7-11 and misses the tournament next year.
 
Atlanta Deacon said:
Manning clearly can't win with a deficient roster. It's obvious we have problems with this roster, but the on the floor performance in year 4 is just unacceptable. We should not be this bad.

Next year he needs to show that he can win big with a talented roster. Anything less than two NCAA tournament wins and he should be sent packing.
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We won’t be Top 16 in the country talented next year and I don’t like boiling down expectations to a single game in March, especially not with the state the program is/should be in under Manning.

If Manning gets below an 8 seed and gets let go I probably wouldn’t fire him but I wouldn’t rush to his defense either.
 
coredeac said:
I was answering someone's question. If you want to waste your day splitting hairs between two shitty coaches, by all means go for it.
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6 points a game is roughly the difference between us and Louisville right now (controlling for schedule) but if you think that’s splitting hairs then ok.
 
RChildress107 said:
6 points a game is roughly the difference between us and Louisville right now (controlling for schedule) but if you think that’s splitting hairs then ok.
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Got it. So losing, and being close to winning are different to you? Also, Louisville's coach is an interim first year HC in the shadow of a huge scandal involving the basketball program. Of course, he should have better results than a fourth year HC playing with players that he himself recruited into his system and he himself has developed over the prior years...

Good lord. You either have a clear agenda or you're an idiot. It might be possible that it's both.
 
RChildress107 said:
So they fired their coach because he went 7-11 with an incredibly talented team? And their new coach came in and performed about how you would expect a coach with that amount of talent to perform?

I’ll keep that example in mind the next time we have a team as talented as Ohio State that goes 7-11 in conference. For instance, it would be a great example of what to do if Manning goes 7-11 and misses the tournament next year.
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Yes, a coach that under performs with talent means they did a bad job utilizing that talent. And yes, a good coach with that same level of talent should get the most out of it and out perform a bad coach with the same roster. What's not clear about that?

Your argument is also an empty one seeing as though the talent that is at Wake currently was recruited and developed under Manning. Either the talent level isn't there (it's not nearly as bad as our record would indicate over the last four years) or Manning just isn't a good coach. In either situation, Manning has failed as a HC. Period. End of story. Done. Numbers don't lie. 12th place, 14th place, 10th place and 14th place. That's his success out of 15 other programs in our basketball conference over the last four years. WGAF if Manning goes 7-11 next year and misses the tournament if that means a new coach could come in and do a better job with the exact same roster? Isn't that what everyone is so upset about? Christ almighty. Can't believe I'm blowing off work right now to argue a point that doesn't need explaining. And for the record, this is some Bzzz level rationalization from you and others that agree that DM will all of a sudden turn our depressingly miserable flagship program around over night because his next recruiting class is going to somehow save the day when his previous four haven't to date...
 
SkyDivingDeacon said:
Got it. So losing, and being close to winning are different to you? Also, Louisville's coach is an interim first year HC in the shadow of a huge scandal involving the basketball program. Of course, he should have better results than a fourth year HC playing with players that he himself recruited into his system and he himself has developed over the prior years...

Good lord. You either have a clear agenda or you're an idiot. It might be possible that it's both.
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Louisville has the best players Adidas money can buy.
 
SkyDivingDeacon said:
Got it. So losing, and being close to winning are different to you? Also, Louisville's coach is an interim first year HC in the shadow of a huge scandal involving the basketball program. Of course, he should have better results than a fourth year HC playing with players that he himself recruited into his system and he himself has developed over the prior years...

Good lord. You either have a clear agenda or you're an idiot. It might be possible that it's both.
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Not sure what you expect, SkyDiving. RC107 is a *2.5 poster posting at that level. It's unreasonable to think he'll post better than that.
 
PhDeac said:
Not sure what you expect, SkyDiving. RC107 is a *2.5 poster posting at that level. It's unreasonable to think he'll post better than that.
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Though still losing the argument, advanced stats show that he's posting better today than he was last year.
 
PTownDeac said:
Holtmann would have been a great hire when he was at Gardner Webb. Wellman probably never considered him.
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I'll defend Wellman a little here -- nobody knew what Holtmann was going to become. He left G-Webb to become an ASSISTANT at Butler, so not like a ton of programs were clamoring for him, he'd only had one good year there. Then Butler's coach quit for health reasons, Holtmann stepped in and the rest is history.

I do think it would benefit teams to look beyond just whatever mid-major coach gets their team to the dance though. But plenty of coaches who did just that have worked out -- Chris Beard the latest and greatest example
 
RChildress107 said:
We won’t be Top 16 in the country talented next year and I don’t like boiling down expectations to a single game in March, especially not with the state the program is/should be in under Manning.

If Manning gets below an 8 seed and gets let go I probably wouldn’t fire him but I wouldn’t rush to his defense either.
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He has so under performed with the current roster, he has to over perform with the talent he has next year. Obviously, if we tear it up next year and get upset in the round of 32, I would give him another pass. However, I suspect that we are a fringe tournament team next year and loose in the first round of the tournament. I have very little faith that he can teach anyone to play defense.
 
Manning won 21 games and lost as a #13 seed. Beard won 30 games and pulled off a 5-12 upset.
 
not fair to pin a coach's future on one game in March

it is fair, however, to pin a coach's future on how well coached and prepared his team is leading up to March

for example, if said coach has the team ranked #160 in the nation in defensive efficiency going into the NCAA tournament, they're not winning many, if any, games - and that is on the coach
 
thatguy2016 said:
not fair to pin a coach's future on one game in March

it is fair, however, to pin a coach's future on how well coached and prepared his team is leading up to March

for example, if said coach has the team ranked #160 in the nation in defensive efficiency going into the NCAA tournament, they're not winning many, if any, games - and that is on the coach
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But that same team was also Top 10 in offense. We don't get in The Dance if we are #90/#90.
 
thatguy2016 said:
not fair to pin a coach's future on one game in March

it is fair, however, to pin a coach's future on how well coached and prepared his team is leading up to March

for example, if said coach has the team ranked #160 in the nation in defensive efficiency going into the NCAA tournament, they're not winning many, if any, games - and that is on the coach
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Exactly. We need to have a team that "can" win 2 games in March next year. Shit can happen, we could have a player get hurt, etc., but we have to be relevant next year and part of being relevant is being relevant in March.
 
It's been a very long time since we had a team I thought could legitimately win 2 games. The 2009 team had the talent but they were playing like crap.
 
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