Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

[Turd Ferguson]

Exactly. What precedence has been set over the last ten years for this to happen? People are forgetting that RW fought tooth and nail to keep Bzzz after it was clear he was a terrible hire. I'd argue Bzzz showed more promise over his four years than Danny has in five years, and given RW's judgment so far...all bets are off regarding the timing of DM's dismissal and RW's retirement, IMHO. I think it's complete bullshit that someone here has the inside track on what's actually going to happen.

No one here has an inside track. That's the point. People are saying that it's obviously time for DM to go. I thought we obviously shouldn't have hired him, and he obviously wasn't going to be successful from the get go. People are also saying that our arena is empty and we aren't winning games. Well that hasn't motivated the AD to do anything in a decade, when current Wake Forest freshmen were in second grade. Think about that. No wonder students (who were already not the most enthusiastic in the conference) have lost interest. Very few current students have a memory of us being good, and came to Wake not caring about us being good.

Like I said, it wouldn't surprise me for DM to be fired. He should have been two years ago. But equally it wouldn't surprise me if he's not. If the reasons people are listing for his departure were impactful at all to RW then we wouldn't still be suffering with DM here. (Although that doesn't mean we'd be any better off, given Wellman's handling of our last three bball coaches.)

 

[tagsfan]

Liberty now in Lunardi's bracket as a 13 seed. If they win at least one game in the Dance, does McKay move up to a Tier 2 candidate? FWIW, UC-Irvine is now a 14 seed.

 

[IAppreciateIt]

Liberty now in Lunardi's bracket as a 13 seed. If they win at least one game in the Dance, does McKay move up to a Tier 2 candidate? FWIW, UC-Irvine is now a 14 seed.

One game shouldn't really have a bearing on a candidate's attractiveness. Similar the Craig Smith discussion from yesterday, I value things like kenpom ratings (or other similar ratings systems) way more than postseason tournament appearances / wins because they are far more predictive about how good a coach is going to be. One easy example to cite is how Danny Manning's Tulsa team beat Mike White's LaTech team to win the CUSA tournament in 2014 and make the NCAA tournament, despite having a much worse team (87th in KP vs. 37 for LaTech).

Much more important to find qualities that suggest a coach can build and sustain a high-level program. Obviously tough because there are so many variables when you are just looking at resumes.

That said, I am really intruiged by McKay despite his journeyman-esque head coaching background based on his time as Tony Bennett's top assistant

 

[tagsfan]

One game shouldn't really have a bearing on a candidate's attractiveness. Similar the Craig Smith discussion from yesterday, I value things like kenpom ratings (or other similar ratings systems) way more than postseason tournament appearances / wins because they are far more predictive about how good a coach is going to be. One easy example to cite is how Danny Manning's Tulsa team beat Mike White's LaTech team to win the CUSA tournament in 2014 and make the NCAA tournament, despite having a much worse team (87th in KP vs. 37 for LaTech).

Much more important to find qualities that suggest a coach can build and sustain a high-level program. Obviously tough because there are so many variables when you are just looking at resumes.

That said, I am really intruiged by McKay despite his journeyman-esque head coaching background based on his time as Tony Bennett's top assistant

Agree. I never understood the Ryan Odom love.

 

[WakeForest Fan]

No one here has an inside track. That's the point. People are saying that it's obviously time for DM to go. I thought we obviously shouldn't have hired him, and he obviously wasn't going to be successful from the get go. People are also saying that our arena is empty and we aren't winning games. Well that hasn't motivated the AD to do anything in a decade, when current Wake Forest freshmen were in second grade. Think about that. No wonder students (who were already not the most enthusiastic in the conference) have lost interest. Very few current students have a memory of us being good, and came to Wake not caring about us being good.

Like I said, it wouldn't surprise me for DM to be fired. He should have been two years ago. But equally it wouldn't surprise me if he's not. If the reasons people are listing for his departure were impactful at all to RW then we wouldn't still be suffering with DM here. (Although that doesn't mean we'd be any better off, given Wellman's handling of our last three bball coaches.)

this

 

[Deaconblue]

If Wellman is leaving at the end of 2019, will the Board allow him to make our next basketball hire?

Highly unlikely Wellman is leaving any time in 2019. Most likely timing for his departure would the end of a school year. And announcement of pending retirement will be made well in advance of his retirement date. There is zero noise about Wellman retiring soon out there.

My predictions are still Hatch retirement May 2020 and Wellman May 2021.

 

[Rafi]

Agree. I never understood the Ryan Odom love.

The three years prior to Ryan Odom, the kenpom for UMBC was 310, 323, 343. In his first three years, Odom had UMBC at 343, 201, 166. That's really good improvement and much more than just "one game." I would argue that it's very hard to improve that much at UMBC, and there is probably a ceiling as to how high a UMBC team can really achieve given their resources and conference.

 

[wsc8521s]

That makes me a little queasy seeing an AD plant talking up Odom.

[Redacted] improved Wake's Kenpom each year! 259 to 211 to 137 to 117! Success!

 

[PhDeac]

Which should line him up for a solid mid major job.

 

[CreamyGoodness]

That makes me a little queasy seeing an AD plant talking up Odom.

[Redacted] improved Wake's Kenpom each year! 259 to 211 to 137 to 117! Success!

Granted, Odom did his work at UMBC, which one may argue is a ridiculously hard school to succeed at. I'm not saying Odom would be a home run hire by any means, but we could do a lot worse.

 

[WFU Lurker]

The three years prior to Ryan Odom, the kenpom for UMBC was 310, 323, 343. In his first three years, Odom had UMBC at 343, 201, 166. That's really good improvement and much more than just "one game." I would argue that it's very hard to improve that much at UMBC, and there is probably a ceiling as to how high a UMBC team can really achieve given their resources and conference.

Agree that, given it's such a low level of competition, we should wait until we see how he does in a mid-major conference before deeming him a legitimate candidate.

 

[wsc8521s]

Granted, Odom did his work at UMBC, which one may argue is a ridiculously hard school to succeed at. I'm not saying Odom would be a home run hire by any means, but we could do a lot worse.

Is it really that much harder to succeed than at another Am East school? Besides maybe Vermont who has shown consistency for whatever reason? We're not talking about powers of college basketball here

 

[Deacs9394]

Granted, Odom did his work at UMBC, which one may argue is a ridiculously hard school to succeed at. I'm not saying Odom would be a home run hire by any means, but we could do a lot worse.

Agreed. Odom is an up and comer and we could do a whole lot worse. Then again, this board is obsessed with KenPom rankings and since he's yet to crack the top 100…no thanks. Ridiculous, imo. We should be looking for program builders with a track record of turning things around. A Clawson type guy. Not sure Odom is absolutely that, but I'm pretty confident he is. Still there are folks on here who dismiss the notion of Odom and then offer some random mid-major guy or Wes Miller or the like. Makes absolutely no sense to me.

Lenoir Rhyne the year before Odom...8-18. His first year, 21-10.

UMBC the year before...7-25 and last place. The 3 years since...

21-13…5th place
25-11...2nd place, NCAA bid, advances to 2nd round
18-10...2nd place

That's 64 wins in under 3 years. The 7 years before he was hired, UMBC had 41 total wins. Or less than 6 wins per year for 7 years! And within two years they become the first 16 seed to knock off a 1... and by 20.

There was someone on here a few days ago making the pitch for Becker at Vermont. Total random mid-major suggestion on here. Why a guy like that over an Odom? Imo, unless a mid-major candidate like Oats is clearly a better choice, no way we need to roll the dice on random.

 

[IAppreciateIt]

That makes me a little queasy seeing an AD plant talking up Odom.

[name redacted] improved Wake's Kenpom each year! 259 to 211 to 137 to 117! Success!

Agreed. I actually do think showing improvement is important, but it's more important to have had good teams, period. I'd say kenpom top 50-60 might be a good threshold. Of course, there are other factors too (e.g. assistant coach experience, recruiting, etc.) that I think are important. But don't like getting too excited over making a terrible team a bit less terrible.

 

[Deacs9394]

That makes me a little queasy seeing an AD plant talking up Odom.

[Redacted] improved Wake's Kenpom each year! 259 to 211 to 137 to 117! Success!

Good gosh, you do realize that KenPom is relative, right? Moving to 117 in the ACC not quite apples to apples with Odom's progress coming from America East. Relativity matters. And the idea that we're looking at absolutes like you have to be in the top whatever is crazy.

I've got an idea, let's hire Pat Chambers from Penn State...I mean they're 48 in KenPom. So obviously he can coach.

 

[wsc8521s]

We can hire candidates that have proven so much more than Odom has. Let him move up the ladder and prove himself further. No need to settle for cronyism

 

[netflixnchildres]

One game shouldn't really have a bearing on a candidate's attractiveness. Similar the Craig Smith discussion from yesterday, I value things like kenpom ratings (or other similar ratings systems) way more than postseason tournament appearances / wins because they are far more predictive about how good a coach is going to be. One easy example to cite is how Danny Manning's Tulsa team beat Mike White's LaTech team to win the CUSA tournament in 2014 and make the NCAA tournament, despite having a much worse team (87th in KP vs. 37 for LaTech).

Much more important to find qualities that suggest a coach can build and sustain a high-level program. Obviously tough because there are so many variables when you are just looking at resumes.

That said, I am really intruiged by McKay despite his journeyman-esque head coaching background based on his time as Tony Bennett's top assistant

Any statistics to back this statement up?

 

[jaybone]

I'm not arguing that DM won't be fired. But this is how I would have described things for most of the last decade. Just wondering what the magic line is for donors/decision makers. I would have also added laughingstock or joke as part of your description.

Narrative. Last year could be explained to some degree as a result of our success and losing Collins then dinos late. We also pulled in a 5star possible lottery pick recruit. That narrative doesn't explain Crawford and Moore and a second crappy season.

 

[WakeForest Fan]

i'm thinking john wooden. anything less would be disappointing

 

[SkyDivingDeacon]

No one here has an inside track. That's the point. People are saying that it's obviously time for DM to go. I thought we obviously shouldn't have hired him, and he obviously wasn't going to be successful from the get go. People are also saying that our arena is empty and we aren't winning games. Well that hasn't motivated the AD to do anything in a decade, when current Wake Forest freshmen were in second grade. Think about that. No wonder students (who were already not the most enthusiastic in the conference) have lost interest. Very few current students have a memory of us being good, and came to Wake not caring about us being good.

Like I said, it wouldn't surprise me for DM to be fired. He should have been two years ago. But equally it wouldn't surprise me if he's not. If the reasons people are listing for his departure were impactful at all to RW then we wouldn't still be suffering with DM here. (Although that doesn't mean we'd be any better off, given Wellman's handling of our last three bball coaches.)

Regarding the inside track comment, there are a few that claim to have it. I totally agree that DM should be shown the door. Just not convinced that will happen quite yet...