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Offical Sports Betting Thread

Wakeforest22890 said:
Mentioned this in passing but why is the Memphis line only 10.5? I don't see any injuries for them and other than coming off a huge win at home over a good Tulane team don't understand this one at all.

I have the line at 20. SP+ has it at 18.5 and Sagarin has it at 14.
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I'm not on Tulsa against Memphis, but there is sharp money on the Tulsa side, and it's because this game is considered a flat spot for Memphis. Memphis is coming off a big win over Tulane, which was a key game among AAC leaders, and next week, Memphis is playing ranked and unbeaten SMU (there is talk that Gameday may actually be visiting that AAC showdown) which could go along way to deciding which Group of 5 team plays on New Years Day. Tulsa is 2-5, but they have been competitive. They should have beaten SMU (lost in OT after blowing a 21 point lead) and outgained and covered at Cincy last week. The Tulsa defense has held opponents below their average point and yardage totals. Tulsa is the top play on Phil Steele's Newsletter.

Situational players look for spots like these and pounce (Wisconsin was in a sandwich spot last week when they inexplicably lost at Illinois coming off a big win over Michigan State and with Ohio State next). Not taking Tulsa, because Memphis is explosive, but understand why some sharp players like Tulsa in this situation.
 
Definitely monitoring the weather situation in Columbus. Doesn't look as bad now (60%, mainly after 2 PM, 1/2 inch of rain+), but some forecasts have been much worse. If it's a bad weather game, I'm definitely betting under 50. Two top 5 defenses in the rain makes that a no-brainer. Hell, under 68.5 for Wake/FSU was a no-brainer last week with the forecast (even though it turned out being 2 hours behind schedule), and I'm really mad I didn't bet more than 1 unit.

Basically, I'm a way better weather nerd than I am bettor, and need every advantage I can get.
 
Last week, bad weather also led to easy unders in KY/UGA (21-0 -- 45.5 total), Utah/ASU (21-3 -- 46 total) and 49ers/Redskins (9-0 -- total 40).
 
Just parlayed SMU -12.5 and Skins +17. I need this to turn the week around.
 
Pilchard said:
Last week, bad weather also led to easy unders in KY/UGA (21-0 -- 45.5 total), Utah/ASU (21-3 -- 46 total) and 49ers/Redskins (9-0 -- total 40).
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I just did a bit of research on bad weather games this weekend, and either bet the under straight up, or teased it up higher with another bad weather game and bet the under on both. Will be interesting to see how this works out. I'm sure plenty of people have tried this strategy (and lost). I know the oddsmakers factor in weather into their lines, but I don't think the public (and even sharps to an extent) probably take it into account as much as they should.
 
Like your strategy, Al Roker.

What games did you focus on with weather as a potential factor?

Looks to me like rain could hit:

Ill/Purdue
UVA/L'ville
FIU/MTSU
SC/TN
Tx St./Ark St.
Mizzou/KY
 
I stayed away from Louisville due to PTSD from the Wake game. The ones I focused on were:

IL/Purdue
Wisconsin/OSU (#1 and #4 defenses)
ND/Mich (Think it will be low scoring anyways)
Iowa/NW (Def low scoring, teased to 43)
Cuse/FSU (teased to 65.5)
PSU/MSU (Should be low scoring, teased to 49.5)
Missouri/Kentucky (teased to 50, see UGA game)
Arkansas/Alabama (teased to 61.5, no Tua)

Maybe I'll look into some non-P5 stuff too. To be fair, I used primarily this site (http://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/weather/) and weather.com, as I'm relatively busy today and don't have time to study the weather models or anything.
 
Just added two more for tomorrow:

Troy (+105) @ Georgia State
Syracuse (+10.5) @ FSU

Cuse pick was close. I have that at -4.5 FSU but Cuse has played so poorly the last few weeks IMO that it was hard to justify even with six points. Finally pulled the trigger so we will see.
 
Also threw in some low cash sucker futures value bets on NCAAB - each of the five is to win the title:

Purdue +7000
Baylor +5000
Seton Hall +6600
Marquette +6600
Louisville +1400

Feel like all of these are low. Louisville should be closer to +850 or +900 IMO
 
Wojo to win the title? Just set the money on fire numbers, it'll be more fun
 
I’m on Wisconsin +14.5 (I feel terrible about it but both defenses are good and I want something to root for.)
Penn State -5 (I know it’s a trap. I can’t help it.)
Duke +3.5 (also don’t feel good about it, but I’m expecting UNC to have a let down after that VT game.)
 
I have way too many road teams on my slate but didn't look at that overall until I saw the vast majority of my picks were visiting.

Jumped on Iowa (-8) @ Northwestern this morning with my only concern there being the weather and/or neither team even scoring 8 points.
 
On Iowa as well.

Also UVA/Lville U 51.5
Duke +3.5
 
Pitt weather looks pretty bad weather too. Just teased that under with Louisville.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Mentioned this in passing but why is the Memphis line only 10.5? I don't see any injuries for them and other than coming off a huge win at home over a good Tulane team don't understand this one at all.

I have the line at 20. SP+ has it at 18.5 and Sagarin has it at 14.
Click to expand...

I think you have your answer on this one.
 
That defensive effort was awful all around. Memphis will get Gameday next week for SMU (plus the prime time ABC slot).
 
I swear. I’m about to be victimized by foolish officiating in the bucs game unless Mr. Crablegs pulls some heroics.
 
So, the bad weather unders went 8-1 (a few of them teased up 6 points, but I think only Bama needed the tease). Michigan/ND u51 was a brutal beat, as it was the 6th leg of a parlay (first 5 hit) that would have paid $1400+. I already hate Jim Harbaugh, and will never forgive him for chucking the ball downfield up 24 and then up 31 in the 4th quarter on a wet field.

Anyways, still a really good weekend overall.
 
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