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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

Wakeforest22890 said:
Angus can make a killing in Vegas right now on a State by state basis betting on the GOP candidate to win the electoral votes where democrats are currently favored. Put your money where your mouth is Brad:

Arizona +125
Florida Even
Michigan +220
Nevada +330
NH +245
NC Even
Pennsylvania +190
Virginia +440
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NV is the best Pub bet of that lot because of the long odds. Still leans blue but is always < 5 points.

AZ is the state I find interesting. It's been a reliably red state for many decades, but now it looks like it's going to elect 2 Dem senators and a Dem president within a 3 year period. I get that it's always had libertarian leanings and has gradually been turning purple, like CO but a decade or 2 later. What I don't get is the speed at which it's turned. Romney won it by 10 points and Trump by 5, and now polls suggest Biden and Kelly will breeze. Anyone here from or familiar with AZ who can offer up a more thorough explanation?
 
cville deac said:
NV is the best Pub bet of that lot because of the long odds. Still leans blue but is always < 5 points.

AZ is the state I find interesting. It's been a reliably red state for many decades, but now it looks like it's going to elect 2 Dem senators and a Dem president within a 3 year period. I get that it's always had libertarian leanings and has gradually been turning purple, like CO but a decade or 2 later. What I don't get is the speed at which it's turned. Romney won it by 10 points and Trump by 5, and now polls suggest Biden and Kelly will breeze. Anyone here from or familiar with AZ who can offer up a more thorough explanation?
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Not familiar with AZ politics, but there's a stark difference between Romney/McCain/Flake and Trump/McSally. I think the explanation is pretty simple. AZ prefers moderate politicians and Sinema/Kelly/Biden are a better fit.
 
Arizonians should have as much reason to hate Trump as any state after the way he treated their long time representative.
 
ChrisL68 said:
People are wrong about predictions on this board every election. Typically up other people talk about it for a day or two. In Brad's case he still talking about it almost 4 years later.
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But remember, he doesn't support Trump. Just like so many other conservatives on here.
 
PhDeac said:
Not familiar with AZ politics, but there's a stark difference between Romney/McCain/Flake and Trump/McSally. I think the explanation is pretty simple. AZ prefers moderate politicians and Sinema/Kelly/Biden are a better fit.
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I'm not really certain how anyone familiar with Kyrsten Cinemaplex could think she is huge turn for Arizona snowbird retirees. It's not exactly Klan country, they're a different type of awful.
 
Colonel Angus said:
:bowrofl:
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Yeah those predictions were bad (and I skewed about 2% in Democrat's directions in most states from the 538 numbers). Now put your money where your mouth is and tell me which of these odds you want to take that I listed above. Easy to just point out other's predictions as good or bad when you don't make any of your own big boy.
 
Arizona's economy has been increasing pretty steadily over the last decade which ends up shifting the population from rural areas to urban areas (generally also results in a shift to more democrats just demographically speaking). Hispanic voters have increased over the last decade, and yeah I think Arizona has generally been pretty moderate. Donald and McSally aren't moderate at all.

LK may be able to give better insight.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Yeah those predictions were bad (and I skewed about 2% in Democrat's directions in most states from the 538 numbers). Now put your money where your mouth is and tell me which of these odds you want to take that I listed above. Easy to just point out other's predictions as good or bad when you don't make any of your own big boy.
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Careful Numbers. A year from now you might be spending an inordinate amount of time getting just the right angle on a dick pic
 
ChrisL68 said:
People are wrong about predictions on this board every election. Typically up other people talk about it for a day or two. In Brad's case he still talking about it almost 4 years later.
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Very few people were wrong about how disastrous Trump's presidency would be if he did win, so at least we have that going for us.
 
ConnorEl said:
2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Biden Has An Edge Over Trump, With 5 Months To Go

Sadly, it’s not by a landslide.

Looking at that its not a landslide but it could become one. You have to figure PA, NV & NH are already in the bag for the blue team. AZ is starting to look that way but anything can happen. If Mark Kelly wins that senate race out there his coattails could pull Biden over the line and its over. If the others break for Biden (FL, NC, WI) then you get your landslide.
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DeacWatcher said:
ConnorEl said:
2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Biden Has An Edge Over Trump, With 5 Months To Go

Sadly, it’s not by a landslide.

Looking at that its not a landslide but it could become one. You have to figure PA, NV & NH are already in the bag for the blue team. AZ is starting to look that way but anything can happen. If Mark Kelly wins that senate race out there his coattails could pull Biden over the line and its over. If the others break for Biden (FL, NC, WI) then you get your landslide.
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I wouldn't say PA, NV and NH are in the bag. PA is a bit of a strange case as Trump has actually been up in a couple of recent polls there as well as down in a couple. And though Biden has consistently been up in NH & NV, the polling has mostly been within the margin of error. The other state that should be in yellow at this point is IA. Both the presidential and senate races have been polling quite closely. That Trump is going to have to spend money in IA, GA and OH, 3 states he cruised in back in 2016, is really bad news for Trump. If the election were today, Biden would probably get 320-360 EVs, and we'd likely take back the senate. But 5 months is a really long time, especially with the rona not going away. And things could break in Trump's favor, like the economy improving and the virus becoming less of a problem. That said, I'm not pleased with the current state of the virus and don't anticipate it abating much in our country come the late Fall.
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Biden was considered PA's third senator. He's got stronger ties to PA than almost any politician. They will get out the vote in Philly, Pittsburgh and the Philly suburbs. And he's not Hillary Clinton.

NV and NH are in the bag as is MI.

It's nice to see a couple of people coming around to my position that Biden may win AZ on the coattails of Mark Kelly.

OH has become more conservative. If Biden is in the game there, it's a great sign. I don't believe the polls saying is within the margin of error. That sounds like a couple of outliers. However, if they can make Trump spend time and money in TX, it could impact FL, NC and other states.
 
Polling in FL has shown Biden mostly ahead as well. If FL is called early for Biden, it won't be a landslide, it'll be a bloodbath.
 
I feel pretty optimistic about Arizona, but don't think it will matter. My hot take is the winner of PA wins this election. I'd love for Florida to break Biden's way and end it, but I'm not that optimistic. On the other hand, I'm very optimistic about Arizona. It's basically turning into Colorado, where the one huge city dominates the state. I'm excited to have Kelly in the Senate. He can be great.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Polling in FL has shown Biden mostly ahead as well. If FL is called early for Biden, it won't be a landslide, it'll be a bloodbath.
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Agreed that if Biden takes Florida he'll probably win nationally by a substantial margin, but given that the state has been fool's gold for Democrats so many times (2000 and 2016 presidential elections, and 2018 Senate and Governor's races), I'm hoping that Biden won't need to win Florida to win the EC. I don't live in FL, but the polls there seem increasingly to give Democratic statewide candidates a narrow but definite lead going into election day, yet when the votes are counted it's usually the GOP that ends up winning, albeit by razor-thin margins.
 
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Wakeforest22890 said:
Arizona's economy has been increasing pretty steadily over the last decade which ends up shifting the population from rural areas to urban areas (generally also results in a shift to more democrats just demographically speaking). Hispanic voters have increased over the last decade, and yeah I think Arizona has generally been pretty moderate. Donald and McSally aren't moderate at all.

LK may be able to give better insight.
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Haven't lived there in almost 20 years now. I believe the only election Arizona has gone Dem in a presidential election in my adult lifetime is Clinton 96. The snowbird population turns out to vote bigly.
 
Aren't we a bit worried that the dems are worried about the virus and the pubs are not? Have to think that will affect turnout bigly.
 
There was an interesting CNBC poll out earlier today that had Biden up 10% nationally. And their swing state polls all had Biden up, however mostly by points inside the margin of error - PA 3%, MI 2%, FL 7% (the largest margin I've seen for FL), NC 2%, AR 1%, WI 4%. So let's say those are the final margins - Biden wins by 10% and gets 330-350 EVs to Trump's 190-210 EVs. I just looked at a few old margins that were in a similar neighborhood. The closest was 1980 when Reagan beat Carter by almost 10%. The difference back than was that a 10% national win also meant an EV landslide - Reagan had almost 500 EVs to Carter's 45. With the large margins Biden will win by in the large blue states and the narrow margins he'll lose by in states like TX and GA, he's going to need at least a 4-5% win just to win the EC. Add to that a WY vote counts 3.6 times more than a CA vote. We suck.
 
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