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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

We are all of one race, the human race, stop trying to be so divisive and splitting us up based on color, you’re the reason Trump won, we must come together, people are people, love everyone

I ran out of cliches
 
PhDeac said:
No. I'm saying someone shouldn't have to reduce me from a Black man to just a man to acknowledge my ability. It implies that being Black is a bad thing. It speaks volumes that when asked to believe that Black = White, some people find it easier to just ignore it.
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This probably a really confusing concept because when calling someone an old white man, the race identifier does in fact imply being white is a bad thing.
 
PhDeac said:
I know you don’t care. That’s what we are talking about. I’m saying you should.

But it’s funny you say you’d say “Go Deacs” if I was wearing Wake gear. The closest experience I’ve had to being Black was being a Wake fan during Wake-UNC games at the Dean Dome.
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The 2OT game was sweet dude
 
PhDeac said:
It was 3OT.

Biden leads 54-42 in WaPo poll.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...c9c312-dfe6-11ea-8dd2-d07812bf00f7_story.html
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Yeah, but CNN's most recent poll was only 4. I think the current average is about a 7 point lead for Biden. Sabato currently has Biden at 268 with AZ, NC, FL, WI and Omaha as toss-ups with ME2 as a pub lean. Let's say it stays at 7, and of those toss-ups Biden only gets AZ, which has consistently had him up by a few points. A 279-259 electoral win is razor thin. The last time we had a 7 point win was Obama in 2008, and his EV total was almost 100 more than McCain's. Silver currently has Biden as having a 72% chance to win. That's just a few points higher than his final percentage for Clinton in 2016. You shouldn't have to win by > 5% in order to have a chance to squeak by in the EC, but that's our new reality with Trump's historic unpopularity in the blue states and small leads in big red states.
 
cville deac said:
Yeah, but CNN's most recent poll was only 4. I think the current average is about a 7 point lead for Biden. Sabato currently has Biden at 268 with AZ, NC, FL, WI and Omaha as toss-ups with ME2 as a pub lean. Let's say it stays at 7, and of those toss-ups Biden only gets AZ, which has consistently had him up by a few points. A 279-259 electoral win is razor thin. The last time we had a 7 point win was Obama in 2008, and his EV total was almost 100 more than McCain's. Silver currently has Biden as having a 72% chance to win. That's just a few points higher than his final percentage for Clinton in 2016. You shouldn't have to win by > 5% in order to have a chance to squeak by in the EC, but that's our new reality with Trump's historic unpopularity in the blue states and small leads in big red states.
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538's weighted average for pollster ratings is 11% this morning I believe. But yes go vote.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
538's weighted average for pollster ratings is 11% this morning I believe. But yes go vote.
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I had read 7 somewhere the other day. But that's even worse - having to win by double digits to win the EV. As a practical matter, I think Biden gets AZ and WI, but it would be premature to say he's taking NC and FL. A NC poll in the last day or 2 had them tied, and FL has a history of suppressing the black vote with long lines in majority black precincts.
 
cville deac said:
I had read 7 somewhere the other day. But that's even worse - having to win by double digits to win the EV. As a practical matter, I think Biden gets AZ and WI, but it would be premature to say he's taking NC and FL. A NC poll in the last day or 2 had them tied, and FL has a history of suppressing the black vote with long lines in majority black precincts.
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Well palma told me that Biden picking Kamala doomed him in NC so clearly that's a lost cause.
 
Just since we are on the topic of national polling, here is the ABCNews Interactive EC Map based on 538's current forecast: Map

As it stands based on those forecasts, even if every toss up state went to Trump, Biden still wins overwhelmingly. And it takes a few flips of currently Democratic leaning states/districts (e.g., FL, WI, NE-2) to get Trump to 270. It's definitely not unrealistic though which is still concerning, but basically everything would have to right for Trump to get to 270 whereas Biden has to have just a few things go his way to get there.
 
Gooner said:
Just since we are on the topic of national polling, here is the ABCNews Interactive EC Map based on 538's current forecast: Map

As it stands based on those forecasts, even if every toss up state went to Trump, Biden still wins overwhelmingly. And it takes a few flips of currently Democratic leaning states/districts (e.g., FL, WI, NE-2) to get Trump to 270. It's definitely not unrealistic though which is still concerning, but basically everything would have to right for Trump to get to 270 whereas Biden has to have just a few things go his way to get there.
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So, kind of like last time. Great.
 
redwing42 said:
So, kind of like last time. Great.
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Yeah, in 2016, on November 7th, 538 declared FL, NC, PA, OH, MI, and WI all 50/50, maybe even gave Clinton an 0.5% edge in MI and PA and Trump swept the table. Every single one went to Trump. The joint probability of that combination of outcomes was really really really small. But, he threaded the needle.
 
redwing42 said:
So, kind of like last time. Great.
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birdman said:
Yeah, in 2016, on November 7th, 538 declared FL, NC, PA, OH, MI, and WI all 50/50, maybe even gave Clinton an 0.5% edge in MI and PA and Trump swept the table. Every single one went to Trump. The joint probability of that combination of outcomes was really really really small. But, he threaded the needle.
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Similar to last time yes, but this time at least Biden seems to be in a much stronger position in those states (as of right now). Having lean Democrat in all of PA, WI, FL, MN and tossups in AZ, NE-02, NC, and OH is better than everything just being tossups, makes it much harder of lightning to strike twice. Still a long way to go (potential debates, plenty of time for the FBI to politicize, etc.) but I'd rather those states be light blue right now than not.
 
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