Resilient Deac
Just wait until next year
- Joined
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... which is why he'll start Friday if Rhett pitches tomorrow.
Could Rhett go Tuesday and Sunday?
... which is why he'll start Friday if Rhett pitches tomorrow.
That schedule poses an interesting dilemma. Go with Lowder, your best, on Tuesday and go with your number 2 guy on Friday in that "resume builder" game or, go with one of the other two guys with wins over NC State and save Lowder for Miami to have the better chance to win two this week?
Could Rhett go Tuesday and Sunday?
That is not a joke, but it is really terrible modeling (ok, maybe it is an unintentional joke)
The fact that WF has to win 4 games while the top 4 seeds need to win 3 (ND at 4.7%…WF at 17.2%…) is the first clue
The other is that, while the sweep over NCSU was great, WF is 10-13-1 against the rest of the field. Run differential is nice but teams need to win games.
So if we beat NC State on Tuesday, does Miami have any incentive whatsoever to try to win on Wednesday against NC State? As long as they beat us they advance, so they could save all their best pitchers for us on Friday and not worry about Wednesday's game. All it matters for is NCAAT seeding.
Why on earth would the first games of each pod not include the top seed to avoid that situation?
Feel like you've spelled out the exact reason none of the top 4 seeds play tomorrow. They get an extra day of rest and they get to know their scenarios.
i think the comments on this board provide a lot of evidence as to why a predictive model would be very high on wake.
the thing we complain about -- close losses, bad hitting with RISP, tootblans, lack of bullpen depth, etc. are all things that a model would think are just a product of randomness.
our run differential suggests our record is worse than it should be, but on top of that our peripherals suggest our run differential should be better than it is as well.
most of us seem to believe that is a product of bad managing moreso than bad luck since these trends have been somewhat consistent over the years for us (at least anecdotally)
I'm saying this is way too big of an advantage for the top seeds. They get the extra pitching rest, they can afford to lose one of their two games, and they get to know which of the two games they can afford to lose (which equals even more pitching rest).
Give them the luxury of losing a game and still potentially advancing, but take away some of the extra rest for pitching. Besides, the top seeds would ideally like to be playing for the championship on Sunday, and it would be a lot easier for them to pitch their ace pitcher for the championship game if they played on Tuesday.
sure - but a predictive model looking at a tournament in which:
4 teams need to go 3-0
everyone else needs to go 4-0
would need some pretty compelling differences in predictive analytics to give one of the latter teams the *best* odds of winning the tournament
(obviously, if every game is a coin flip, every member of the first group's odds of winning the tournament are 2X those of the second; that is before home-field advantage and presumably better metrics)
I don't see any credible model ranking WF significantly ahead of Miami, VT, Louisville, and Notre Dame
this guys model does (same guy who said we were the favorite).
not really familiar with any other predictive model, but it kinda passes the sniff test for credibility if the RPI has us at #11 despite "underperforming" our peripherals.
(fwiw, i don't think we are that good)
It'll be Seth Keener/bullpen tomorrow, Lowder on Friday.
I’m good with this. An ACC title would be nice but getting a marquee win on Friday is much more important.