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2023 WF Baseball - Schedule Released

Deaconblue said:
That schedule poses an interesting dilemma. Go with Lowder, your best, on Tuesday and go with your number 2 guy on Friday in that "resume builder" game or, go with one of the other two guys with wins over NC State and save Lowder for Miami to have the better chance to win two this week?
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If he pitches, Lowder will be on 4 days rest on Tuesday, which for a college pitcher is already pushing it. Hartle would be on 3 days rest and McGraw would be on 2 days rest, so obviously neither of those two are options for Tuesday.

The choice is Lowder on short rest (back to back starts on short rest) or a Keener/bullpen game on Tuesday.
 
Deacs up to #11 in RPI. 4th in ACC:

VT #4
Miami #8
L'ville #9
WF #11
UVA #15
UNC #16
ND #17
GT #20
FSU #29
Clemson #30
NC #42
Pitt #72
 
Resilient Deac said:
Could Rhett go Tuesday and Sunday?
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I would think so, but likely on some limited (60-80 ballpark) pitch counts. Rhett on Tuesday, Teddy on Friday, Hartle on Saturday, Rhett on Sunday could be useful ... but would also be a balancing act of "do we start Rhett three times in 11 days *before* getting to the NCAA tournament?"

Those semifinal and championship games of the ACCT have seen some crazy pitching performances from unlikely heroes in years past, IIRC.
 
So if we beat NC State on Tuesday, does Miami have any incentive whatsoever to try to win on Wednesday against NC State? As long as they beat us they advance, so they could save all their best pitchers for us on Friday and not worry about Wednesday's game. All it matters for is NCAAT seeding.

Why on earth would the first games of each pod not include the top seed to avoid that situation?
 
Even if WF loses to NC State, a win over Miami might clinch a regional host. Would be tempted to rest Lowder and hold him for the Friday start. I would not want to overuse Lowder in the ACCT with the NCAAT starting next week. With a rested Lowder, WF would have a solid chance in any subregional.
 
The fairest way to do this (under this weird pod format) would be that the game between the lower seeded teams of the pod is the last game of the pod. So that way Miami doesn't know when they play Wake/State which one they need to beat in order to advance.
 
thatguy2016 said:
That is not a joke, but it is really terrible modeling (ok, maybe it is an unintentional joke)

The fact that WF has to win 4 games while the top 4 seeds need to win 3 (ND at 4.7%…WF at 17.2%…) is the first clue

The other is that, while the sweep over NCSU was great, WF is 10-13-1 against the rest of the field. Run differential is nice but teams need to win games.
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i think the comments on this board provide a lot of evidence as to why a predictive model would be very high on wake.

the thing we complain about -- close losses, bad hitting with RISP, tootblans, lack of bullpen depth, etc. are all things that a model would think are just a product of randomness.

our run differential suggests our record is worse than it should be, but on top of that our peripherals suggest our run differential should be better than it is as well.

most of us seem to believe that is a product of bad managing moreso than bad luck since these trends have been somewhat consistent over the years for us (at least anecdotally)
 
deacon14 said:
So if we beat NC State on Tuesday, does Miami have any incentive whatsoever to try to win on Wednesday against NC State? As long as they beat us they advance, so they could save all their best pitchers for us on Friday and not worry about Wednesday's game. All it matters for is NCAAT seeding.

Why on earth would the first games of each pod not include the top seed to avoid that situation?
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Feel like you've spelled out the exact reason none of the top 4 seeds play tomorrow. They get an extra day of rest and they get to know their scenarios.

Also feel like this is a reminder that there is no "good" format for the ACCT. You're always winding up with weird pitching situations, you'll inevitably have a team or two reach the weekend having burned too much of its pitching, there will always be the meaningless games (aside from NCAAT resume boosters).
 
It really is an idiotic format. UVA (17-13) has more ACC wins, a better RPI, yet because UVA is #5 seed, while ND (16-11) is a #4 seed, UVA must beat FSU first for its game against ND to matter.
 
CONeill said:
Feel like you've spelled out the exact reason none of the top 4 seeds play tomorrow. They get an extra day of rest and they get to know their scenarios.
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I'm saying this is way too big of an advantage for the top seeds. They get the extra pitching rest, they can afford to lose one of their two games, and they get to know which of the two games they can afford to lose (which equals even more pitching rest).

Give them the luxury of losing a game and still potentially advancing, but take away some of the extra rest for pitching. Besides, the top seeds would ideally like to be playing for the championship on Sunday, and it would be a lot easier for them to pitch their ace pitcher for the championship game if they played on Tuesday.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
i think the comments on this board provide a lot of evidence as to why a predictive model would be very high on wake.

the thing we complain about -- close losses, bad hitting with RISP, tootblans, lack of bullpen depth, etc. are all things that a model would think are just a product of randomness.

our run differential suggests our record is worse than it should be, but on top of that our peripherals suggest our run differential should be better than it is as well.

most of us seem to believe that is a product of bad managing moreso than bad luck since these trends have been somewhat consistent over the years for us (at least anecdotally)
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sure - but a predictive model looking at a tournament in which:

4 teams need to go 3-0
everyone else needs to go 4-0

would need some pretty compelling differences in predictive analytics to give one of the latter teams the *best* odds of winning the tournament

(obviously, if every game is a coin flip, every member of the first group's odds of winning the tournament are 2X those of the second; that is before home-field advantage and presumably better metrics)

I don't see any credible model ranking WF significantly ahead of Miami, VT, Louisville, and Notre Dame
 
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dump the pools, go to a single elimination (which is what the tournament is anyway) and let teams that lose their first games go play exhibitions on practice fields somewhere
 
I'd be against Lowder pitching Tuesday and then again on Sunday if we were to find ourselves in the ACC championship game. That would be him pitching on 5/13, then on 5/19 (5 days rest), then on 5/24 (4 days rest), then on 5/29 (4 days rest).

Not sure I really want the most important pitcher on our team for NCAAT hopes, who is used to 6 days rest between starts, to start 3 consecutive games on less than normal rest. It just feels too risky for both injury concerns and that his performance may be seriously affected both in that game and into the NCAAT.
 
deacon14 said:
I'm saying this is way too big of an advantage for the top seeds. They get the extra pitching rest, they can afford to lose one of their two games, and they get to know which of the two games they can afford to lose (which equals even more pitching rest).

Give them the luxury of losing a game and still potentially advancing, but take away some of the extra rest for pitching. Besides, the top seeds would ideally like to be playing for the championship on Sunday, and it would be a lot easier for them to pitch their ace pitcher for the championship game if they played on Tuesday.
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I agree, it's a heavy advantage. Pretty sure the top 4 seeds get priority on which days they play, though. Believe the only scheduling aspect the ACC handles is game times -- which is why you've got night games with UNC x2, Clemson and N.C. State.
 
thatguy2016 said:
sure - but a predictive model looking at a tournament in which:

4 teams need to go 3-0
everyone else needs to go 4-0

would need some pretty compelling differences in predictive analytics to give one of the latter teams the *best* odds of winning the tournament

(obviously, if every game is a coin flip, every member of the first group's odds of winning the tournament are 2X those of the second; that is before home-field advantage and presumably better metrics)

I don't see any credible model ranking WF significantly ahead of Miami, VT, Louisville, and Notre Dame
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this guys model does (same guy who said we were the favorite).

 
IAppreciateIt said:
this guys model does (same guy who said we were the favorite).

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I did see that tweet.

Like you, I disagree with his rankings - ELO has WF behind VT, Louisville, Miami, and UNC

I still don't think his rankings justify giving better odds to a team who must go 4-0 than to 4 teams that must go 3-0 (and who can therefore also spread their pitchers accordingly)
 
deacdixieboy said:
I’m good with this. An ACC title would be nice but getting a marquee win on Friday is much more important.
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Yep. It really doesn't have to be more complicated than "we're in a good spot for NCAAT, we don't need to burn our ace and risk his health by pitching him for the third time in a 12-day span."
 
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