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November/Post Bye Woes

UNC's was without their best defensive player and sack leader Noah Taylor. WF had a better DL when we was there, without him, WF has much better DL. When Carson and Holmes are healthy; WF has a better group of DBs than UNC. WF puts a lot on its OL because they rarely help their tackles. Think D'Vonte Gordon has a solid NFL shot. Jurgens is a top center in the ACC. Maginn has been a starter for parts of three years. Think that OL is an easy target because they were overwhelmed at L'ville, but they played great against Clemson and good enough to win against UNC and NC State (the Pack brought the house all of the time; no OL is going to win when they are outnumbered; that's when the coaches, QB and receivers need to adjust).

The biggest difference between last year's team and this year's team is defensive turnovers forced. Last year, WF forced 29 TOs in 14 games - more than two per game. This year, WF has forced only 13 TOs in 10 games. When you look at the four losses, the TO numbers are crazy. Clemson, L'ville, NC State and UNC attempted 145 passes against WF. WF has no picks -- not one (WF is 111th in defensive interception % and ahead of only VT among ACC teams). Those four opponents also turned it over on a fumble once (3 fumbles and WF recovered one). One TO in four games. Not going to get it done, particularly when WF does turn it over in those losses.

In those 4 WF losses, WF attempted 152 passes and has thrown 8 picks and fumbled 6 times losing 4. So, WF has given the opponent 11 more chances to score than WF has had in the four losses. Even the best teams can't overcome that. Feel like Brad Lambert has improved the defense, and TOs are often a function of luck, but for whatever reason, WF has suffered major turnover regression this year after dominating that stat for several years.

There is one overwhelming constant in WF losses; lack of TOs.
 
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I will never understand why some portions of our fanbase have such a problem reconciling the ideas that a.) at the macro level, Clawson is an S-tier coach and, for our program, an absolutely perfect fit, and b.) at the micro level, holy god does he suck as a game manager, and it's absolutely costing us points and/or wins on a yearly basis. I think the reason that people here aren't ultimately calling for Clawson's head is that all of the good that (a) brings significantly outweighs any negatives from (b). Like, okay, maybe his decision-making fucks us out of a win or two, but i'd rather be fucked into a disappointing winning season then go back to late-era Grobe ball, or worse.

And, as I've posted elsewhere, the fact that we're even talking about this shit is because he's gotten our program to the point where saying things like "We expect 10 wins" doesn't get you laughed out of a room (of fellow Wake fans).
 
I'll take it a step further. Portions of our fanbase have always had a problem reconciling the idea that a coach can be good and still get better.
 
PhDeac said:
I'll take it a step further. Portions of our fanbase have always had a problem reconciling the idea that a coach can be good and still get better.
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that's more a take based economy problem

nuance is hard, y'know
 
Pilchard said:
UNC's was without their best defensive player and sack leader Noah Taylor. WF had a better DL when we was there, without him, WF has much better DL. When Carson and Holmes are healthy; WF has a better group of DBs than UNC. WF puts a lot on its OL because they rarely help their tackles. Think D'Vonte Gordon has a solid NFL shot. Jurgens is a top center in the ACC. Maginn has been a starter for parts of three years. Think that OL is an easy target because they were overwhelmed at L'ville, but they played great against Clemson and good enough to win against UNC and NC State.

The biggest difference between last year's team and this year's team is defensive turnovers forced. Last year, WF forced 29 TOs in 14 games - more than two per game. This year, WF has forced only 13 TOs in 10 games. When you look at the four losses the TO numbers are crazy. Clemson, L'ville, NC State and UNC attempted 145 passes against WF. WF has no picks not one. Those opponents also turned it over on a fumble once (3 fumbles and WF recovered one). One TO in four games. Not going to get it done, particularly when WF does turn it over in those losses.

In those 4 games, WF attempted 152 passes and has thrown 8 picks and fumbled 6 times losing 4. So, WF has given the opponent 11 more chances to score than WF has had in the four losses. Even the best teams can't overcome that. Feel like Brad Lambert has improved the defense, and TOs are often a function of luck, but for whatever reason, WF has suffered major turnover regression this year after dominating that stat for several years.

There is one overwhelming constant in WF losses; it's not taking advantage of any TOs.
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This is probably just recency bias, but it feels like Lambert's got us playing a way softer zone than we ran last year. Our secondary seems like it's always playing over, and (especially when we're blitzing the gunner) guys are consistently getting 5 yard cushions on us. I'd imagine that's partly because our linebackers are nightmare fuel in pass coverage, so we're hedging our bets a bit? I dunno. Guys like Uiagalelei and Morris shouldn't be picking us apart like they did, obviously.
 
Well against L'ville, Hartman was sacked 8 times and WF sacked Cunningham once. For the other three, the sacks were essentially even. Last Saturday, WF sacked Maye 3 times and Hartman was sacked once.
 
Pilchard said:
Well against L'ville, Hartman was sacked 8 times and WF sacked Cunningham once. For the other three, the sacks were essentially even. Last Saturday, WF sacked Maye 3 times and Hartman was sacked once.
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eh, not sure that tells the whole story. UNC blitzed fairly consistently most of the night. I think our blitzes were probably more successful per-play, but we seemed hesitant to send pressure.
 
we were down 4 guys in the secondary once Williams went out for "targeting": Mustapha, Carson, Holmes, Williams
 
PhDeac said:
Right. Wake didn't get out-talented in any of those games. The only game vs. a team with obviously better talent went to OT. But Wake did not play smart, disciplined football in the last three games. There are only a few teams who can win while losing the turnover battle and committing untimely OL penalties. There's no shame that Wake isn't one of them.
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I feel like we were somewhat out-talented v. Louisville in a key matchup (DE v. Our LT). That wasn’t scheme as much as the DE destroying our oline consistently. We had some injuries, but that was just a Von Miller v. Mike Remmers on skates mismatch.
 
RedSoxFaithful said:
This is probably just recency bias, but it feels like Lambert's got us playing a way softer zone than we ran last year. Our secondary seems like it's always playing over, and (especially when we're blitzing the gunner) guys are consistently getting 5 yard cushions on us. I'd imagine that's partly because our linebackers are nightmare fuel in pass coverage, so we're hedging our bets a bit? I dunno. Guys like Uiagalelei and Morris shouldn't be picking us apart like they did, obviously.
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Would love to see the man vs. zone snap breakdown but it feels like we've played much more man coverage in ACC play.

The problem defensively is the front four can't generate any pressure against average or above average OL's. And even if the front four could generate more pressure, watching our LB's drop into zone coverage has been a horror film since Elko and Lea left for ND.

Add in the fact that CB play has been a debacle on top of the injuries, and voila, you allow DJU and MJ Morris to look like Heisman candidates.

Currently 96th in the country in pass defense efficiency only ahead of Duke, Miami, and UNC in the ACC.

And 83rd in the county in 3rd down conversion %. For comparison, App St is 81st and ECU is 82nd.

98th in the country in passing yards allowed.

83rd in scoring defense tied with NW.
 
You all are ridiculous. The recruiting data is right there, and yet you attribute every fucking loss to individual coaching errors, as if every other coach is perfect and are never the victim of blown calls or injuries. It’s talent. None of the other programs that recruit in the level we do are as successful as us. Your expectations of our coaching are insane. If coaches had to be mistake free to win a football game then no one would ever win anything.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
You all are ridiculous. The recruiting data is tight there, and yet you attribute every fucking loss to individual coaching errors, as if every other coach is perfect and are never the victim of blown calls or injuries. It’s talent.
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This isn’t basketball. Football is a developmental sport. Development, gameplan, and execution matter just as much as talent. You need all of them. Our talent is increasing every year.

This is such a weird hill for you to throw yourself on.
 
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myDeaconmyhand said:
You all are ridiculous. The recruiting data is right there, and yet you attribute every fucking loss to individual coaching errors, as if every other coach is perfect and are never the victim of blown calls or injuries. It’s talent. None of the other programs that recruit in the level we do are as successful as us. Your expectations of our coaching are insane. If coaches had to be mistake free to win a football game then no one would ever win anything.
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But in college the coaches pick the players for the team. So not having better recruits is still on the coaches (I understand that WF is not a gigantic state school and has challenges but recruiting is still on the coaches just like in-game management). And let’s not forget that transfers exist.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
This isn’t basketball. Football is a developmental sport. Development, game, plan, and execution matter just as much as talent. You need all of them. Our talent is increasing every year.

This is such a weird hill for you to throw yourself on.
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Our Development is great, it’s why we are a 8 Win team instead of a 5 win team. Our yearly recruiting is why we are not a 10 win team, and why we are a .500 conference team. That’s reality. If anyone is dying on a hill it’s you sunshiners who think we are a few blunders away from 11 wins.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
Our Development is great, it’s why we are a 8 Win team instead of a 5 win team. Our yearly recruiting is why we are not a 10 win team, and why we are a .500 conference team. That’s reality. If anyone is dying on a hill it’s you sunshiners who think we are a few blunders away from 11 wins.
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I mean, we literally are a couple blunders from having 8 wins with 2 winnable games left and then a bowl game
 
Sports books and Playoff rankings already factor in luck and injuries. That’s why all of these games who you all are so certain should have been wins against less talented teams were basically toss up games.
 
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