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BillBrasky Memorial Political Chat Thread

TownieDeac said:
It’s great there are macroeconomic indicators that look good, but relative to what? Sure, people in the middle and latter end of their careers are pleased the stock market has turned around, the job market has stabilized, and inflation is back in hand, but it’s still an economic reality that it’s really hard for young people to afford college or homes or cars, compared to a generation ago.

Perhaps the social media angle is that younger people have more (if skewed) political consciousness because of places like Twitter and TikTok. Of course some of those communities are toxic, but the ability to converse in political speak is democratized more than it was a generation ago, and you pair those two things together, and you’ve got a decent narrative for why young people might be less than satisfied with your objective numbers.
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Is it really an economic reality though? This narrative is super common, romanticizing the past, but a whole lot of it seems to be vibes. IN the 1950s home ownership rates were 55%. Today it's 66%. Home ownership rates in those under 35 have been essentially stable for 50 years, but have risen over the last decade. Percent of income spent on housing has gone down, not up.

1701313069097.png

In the 1960s people spent close to 20% of their income on food! It's under 8% today. A Dodge caravan was more expensive, inflation adjusted in 1996 than it was in 2020 (not even accounting for the quality and safety improvements). Median net wealth is the highest it's ever been for single parents, African Americans, and people under 35.

I'm not trying to pretend everything is perfect, or even very good. And some things really have gotten harder. Rents for example, have trended upward (graph below). There is a ton to be done there. But when we look at inflation adjusted measures (that definitionally account for all of this stuff), I think it's really hard to support the idea that it's significantly harder for young people today. I'm not trying to scold anyone. The shaming happening that strick mentioned earlier is super dumb. Tons of people are still suffering. But I dunno. It just seems impossible to to build the coalitions we will need going forward to enact policy to materially improve peoples' lives when there is this hugely pervasive "things are shittier than ever burn it all down" energy that seems, to me at least, to be unjustified.

1701313392394.png
 
tiltdeac said:
Is it really an economic reality though? This narrative is super common, romanticizing the past, but a whole lot of it seems to be vibes. IN the 1950s home ownership rates were 55%. Today it's 66%. Home ownership rates in those under 35 have been essentially stable for 50 years, but have risen over the last decade. Percent of income spent on housing has gone down, not up.

View attachment 6910

In the 1960s people spent close to 20% of their income on food! It's under 8% today. A Dodge caravan was more expensive, inflation adjusted in 1996 than it was in 2020 (not even accounting for the quality and safety improvements). Median net wealth is the highest it's ever been for single parents, African Americans, and people under 35.

I'm not trying to pretend everything is perfect, or even very good. And some things really have gotten harder. Rents for example, have trended upward (graph below). There is a ton to be done there. But when we look at inflation adjusted measures (that definitionally account for all of this stuff), I think it's really hard to support the idea that it's significantly harder for young people today. I'm not trying to scold anyone. The shaming happening that strick mentioned earlier is super dumb. Tons of people are still suffering. But I dunno. It just seems impossible to to build the coalitions we will need going forward to enact policy to materially improve peoples' lives when there is this hugely pervasive "things are shittier than ever burn it all down" energy that seems, to me at least, to be unjustified.

View attachment 6911
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This is a good post. Is it just alot more expensive to buy a house in the neighborhoods people graduating from Wake Forest want to live in? Because my house I grew up in sold for $130k in 2019 and my mom bought it 35 years ago for $100k. Good school system, 30 minute drive to Philly, nice town, just zero amenities.
 
I know everybody's celebrating Kissinger's death but this is pretty amazing as well. Crowd's reaction is priceless. Audio NSFW.
 
Andrew Ross Sorkin looks 10 years older than the last time I saw him and he still looks 22.

So Musk's strategy is to blame Disney for hurting the business he bought.
 
PhDeac said:
Yep. And that's how you defund public education.
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And what's really sad and frightening is that it's all working for them beautifully, especially here in NC. They've been following that plan to the letter and so far it's paid off for them perfectly. And most of the larger public seems clueless as to what's going on.
 
tiltdeac said:
Is it really an economic reality though? This narrative is super common, romanticizing the past, but a whole lot of it seems to be vibes. IN the 1950s home ownership rates were 55%. Today it's 66%. Home ownership rates in those under 35 have been essentially stable for 50 years, but have risen over the last decade. Percent of income spent on housing has gone down, not up.

View attachment 6910

In the 1960s people spent close to 20% of their income on food! It's under 8% today. A Dodge caravan was more expensive, inflation adjusted in 1996 than it was in 2020 (not even accounting for the quality and safety improvements). Median net wealth is the highest it's ever been for single parents, African Americans, and people under 35.

I'm not trying to pretend everything is perfect, or even very good. And some things really have gotten harder. Rents for example, have trended upward (graph below). There is a ton to be done there. But when we look at inflation adjusted measures (that definitionally account for all of this stuff), I think it's really hard to support the idea that it's significantly harder for young people today. I'm not trying to scold anyone. The shaming happening that strick mentioned earlier is super dumb. Tons of people are still suffering. But I dunno. It just seems impossible to to build the coalitions we will need going forward to enact policy to materially improve peoples' lives when there is this hugely pervasive "things are shittier than ever burn it all down" energy that seems, to me at least, to be unjustified.

View attachment 6911
Click to expand...
I question a lot of this underlying data, especially as regards housing, if it takes into consideration factors like older and younger people sharing generational homes.

Here’s median house sale price:
fred.stlouisfed.org

Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States

Graph and download economic data for Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) from Q1 1963 to Q3 2023 about sales, median, housing, and USA.
fred.stlouisfed.org

And you can pick a time and say ownership rates look good against them like the 50s or you can note the steady 20 year decline:

1701349127198.jpeg
And if you look at young families ownership is and has been static and low:

1701349283586.gif

I noticed you didn’t touch college costs:

1701349383220.png

Or wage growth’s staggering inequality:

1701349481961.png


Feels like a rosy picture you’re hand picking against larger trend.
 

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The homeowner bump shown is artificially inflated and essentially we have return to the baseline before the late 90s early 2000s.
 
TownieDeac said:
I question a lot of this underlying data, especially as regards housing, if it takes into consideration factors like older and younger people sharing generational homes.

Here’s median house sale price:
fred.stlouisfed.org

Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States

Graph and download economic data for Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) from Q1 1963 to Q3 2023 about sales, median, housing, and USA.
fred.stlouisfed.org

And you can pick a time and say ownership rates look good against them like the 50s or you can note the steady 20 year decline:

View attachment 6916
And if you look at young families ownership is and has been static and low:

View attachment 6918

I noticed you didn’t touch college costs:

View attachment 6919

Or wage growth’s staggering inequality:

View attachment 6920


Feels like a rosy picture you’re hand picking against larger trend.
Click to expand...
Steady 20 year decline you say? Your graph stops at the low point in 2014. It's currently at 66% from an all time high of 69%

1701350011851.png
 
And I'm not disputing that wage gains were higher at the top historically. It's only in the last few years that gains were higher for the bottom. But even your own chart shows people at the 10th and 50th percentile are WAY better off than before. That's great news!
 
College is definitely more expensive, but probably less than you think because aid has gone up as well. The biggest issue is grad school. Undergrad borrowing has been pretty flat for a while.

1701350604430.png
 
Maybe not the right thread for this, but can somebody smarter economically than me help shed light on how much of some of our typical consumer goods (groceries, food, retail stores) are inflation vs. just good ole capitalistic price gouging to exploit folks?
 
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