The media will definitely sell the Romney comeback story to avoid a boring month. A few small time polls will serve that purpose.
Pollsters don't select how many republicans and democrats are polled.
Oh, really. Then why are they trying to model it on 2008 turnout? If you don't model the poll to reflect likely voter turnout it's really just propoganda. At least that is what Harrison Hickman would say.
Oh, really. Then why are they trying to model it on 2008 turnout? If you don't model the poll to reflect likely voter turnout it's really just propoganda. At least that is what Harrison Hickman would say.
I think he's talking about the weights used in the polls.
Good grief. I give up. Believe the polls. We'll see how that works out for you in four weeks. Better still, go to an SEIU meeting and do your own random sample of likely voters. Because FYC says pollsters can't control the sample or the methodology.
If you are pulling a true random sample how do you continuously sample 7-11% more Democrats when Gallup says the variance between party affiliation is roughly half that? What kind of random sample is that and would you care to estimate the odds of continuously finding a "random" sample that is always twice the estimated variance? Go for it.
Here is the Gallup data on party affiliation: Poll
I don't argue that it is impossible to poll a sample that is 11% more Democrat than Republican. What I do think is quite impossible is that multiple polls "oversample" Democrats consistently when you match their Democrat to Republican variance compared with the volatility of the Gallup data. Not to mention, I believe the most recent ABC poll included only 1% independents. Now why would that be? According to Gallup the majority polled consider themselves independents and according to CNN Romney currently is 8% ahead of Obama with independents. So, you can look at it in a number of ways, either the polls over the last month were engineered to shape voter mindset, or the methodology was unintentionally flawed, or the polls were pure guesswork and may mean nothing, or they may be dead on as we are led to believe.
Why are you so worked up about polls? I think you may spontaneously combust before November 7.