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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

Meh. This district is gerrymandered to get a Republican elected. Running the archetypal out of touch limousine liberal against a guy claiming to be the man of the people was a bad idea. The "safe" choice, I suppose, kind of like Jim Grobe running it up the gut 4 times and taking 3 timeouts into halftime. Democrats start out this race 2 touchdowns behind because of the gerrymandering, go for the hail Mary and see if another entrepreneurial man of the people can beat Budd at his own game. It's not like Manning is some great retail politician - she is not well known among average voters, has never held local office, and all her experience is working behind the scenes hobnobbing with other millionaires. It's easy for Budd to define her.
 
There is nothing more exciting than two posters getting into the nuances of Guilford County democratic politics.
 
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Deacon923 said:
Meh. This district is gerrymandered to get a Republican elected. Running the archetypal out of touch limousine liberal against a guy claiming to be the man of the people was a bad idea. The "safe" choice, I suppose, kind of like Jim Grobe running it up the gut 4 times and taking 3 timeouts into halftime. Democrats start out this race 2 touchdowns behind because of the gerrymandering, go for the hail Mary and see if another entrepreneurial man of the people can beat Budd at his own game. It's not like Manning is some great retail politician - she is not well known among average voters, has never held local office, and all her experience is working behind the scenes hobnobbing with other millionaires. It's easy for Budd to define her.
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Coker would be down by 15 or 20 points. Perpetual primary losing candidate who has little charisma and generates little interest. Manning is at least making the race competitive.
 
ChrisL68 said:
I met him at Common Grounds one time. Nice guy but there's no way he was going to win. He didn't generate much support from the progressive base in Greensboro.
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I met him at Scuppernong Books. Seemed like a pretty decent guy.
 
The Tennessee Senate race between Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) and former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) is nearly a dead heat just under three weeks from the 2018 midterms.

Blackburn has a narrow 3 point lead over Breseden in the race for fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Bob Corker, according to a new poll released Wednesday by Reuters.

The Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia poll found Blackburn holding a 47 to 44 percent edge among likely voters, just ahead of the poll's 2.5 point margin of error, meaning the race is practically tied.

https://thehill.com/campaign-polls/...urn-has-3-point-lead-in-tennessee-senate-race
 
Newenglanddeac said:
The Tennessee Senate race between Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) and former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) is nearly a dead heat just under three weeks from the 2018 midterms.

Blackburn has a narrow 3 point lead over Breseden in the race for fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Bob Corker, according to a new poll released Wednesday by Reuters.

The Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia poll found Blackburn holding a 47 to 44 percent edge among likely voters, just ahead of the poll's 2.5 point margin of error, meaning the race is practically tied.

https://thehill.com/campaign-polls/...urn-has-3-point-lead-in-tennessee-senate-race
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News reporting that doesn't understand statistics. The race isn't virtually tied.
 
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ChrisL68 said:
News reporting that doesn't understand statistics. The race isn't virtually tied.
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Yeah, with all the polling over the last month, that race has gone from a maybe slight Dem lean to a definite Pub lean. ND is the same, and NV and AZ are now at best toss-ups. While the House still appears to be trending blue, the only senate race trending blue is FL. I had been thinking the final result would be 50/50, but now I'm thinking it'll stay 51-49 Pub.
 
Voted at Miller Park about an hour ago.

Short line, though busy with steady stream of folks and all polling stations occupied the whole time I was there.

Pretty easy to get in/out. Better than I've found in the past at some other early voting sites.
 
What's the polling on the dishonestly presented NC amendments?

They sure sounded great on the ballot. The ones I read, anyhow. Sheesh.
 
cville deac said:
Yeah, with all the polling over the last month, that race has gone from a maybe slight Dem lean to a definite Pub lean. ND is the same, and NV and AZ are now at best toss-ups. While the House still appears to be trending blue, the only senate race trending blue is FL. I had been thinking the final result would be 50/50, but now I'm thinking it'll stay 51-49 Pub.
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I definitely think there was a shift towards the GOP in polling during and right after the Kavanaugh hearings and appointment, but now that it's over I'm wondering if GOP enthusiasm has died down and these races are starting go back to where they were before the hearings, which was essentially tied, or maybe a slight GOP lean. Also, I've read that most of the polls covering these Senate and House races are using a model based on turnout for Democrats being pretty much where it usually is for a midterm election, such as 2014, for example. The higher the Democratic turnout goes, the less accurate these polls are. GOP olds nearly always vote no matter what, but if the Democratic base will just turn out in a midterm for once, it would really shake these races up. Whether they will do so, of course, remains to be seen.
 
Highland Deac said:
I definitely think there was a shift towards the GOP in polling during and right after the Kavanaugh hearings and appointment, but now that it's over I'm wondering if GOP enthusiasm has died down and these races are starting go back to where they were before the hearings, which was essentially tied, or maybe a slight GOP lean. Also, I've read that most of the polls covering these Senate and House races are using a model based on turnout for Democrats being pretty much where it usually is for a midterm election, such as 2014, for example. The higher the Democratic turnout goes, the less accurate these polls are. GOP olds nearly always vote no matter what, but if the Democratic base will just turn out in a midterm for once, it would really shake these races up. Whether they will do so, of course, remains to be seen.
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That is the trouble with polling these days - it's hard to guess the right model. But no matter what models the pollsters are using, everyone is agreeing the house is going blue. The problem with the senate is there are twice as many blue seats that are up, and a lot of those are in solidly red states. ND, TX, TN, MO, MT, WV, IN and AZ are all pretty solidly red states, and the Dem sitting senators and nominees are all outperforming the normal strong red leans in those states, but it looks like 3-4 of those are fighting uphill battles. FL is reddish purple, but some local issues and De Santis seem to be weighing Scott down. The NV race is the only 1 that seems to be closely mirroring the metrics of that state - it's become a pretty purple state, and it's a toss-up. I guess the point is that Dem senate nominees are outperforming the usual metrics, but it's just a really tough map this year. But look at it this way, had Hillary won, Dems would likely be losing 5-6 seats this year instead of breaking even.
 
Shooshmoo said:
The Matrix.

This is the Republican party now, and they all love it, especially the fucking Evangelicals. I wish there were a hell so they could all burn in it.
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LOL @ progressive compassion. You know the Nazis were socialists like you, right?
 
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