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2013 Kentucky Derby- The Day After

RJKarl said:
I really think Overanalyze may take a lot of sucker's bets. He looked great blowing away the field in Arkansas. However, it was a very slow race. He only got an 88 Beyer's Speed figure.

RE: Goldenscents- I could change my mind. He looked so bad in the San Felipe. I may decide that's a race to draw a line through.

Draw a line through means you dismiss the race as being an aberration. You can do this if you think the horse freaked and raced better than he/she ever will again or of you think he had a bad. Remember even Zenyatta and Secretariat lost races.
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RJ - looking at the dope, is Goldenscents the obvious early speed in this race or do the two faves like to stalk the lead too? I'm tempted to put some money down on the Santa Anita Derby winner as this is the 30-year anniversary of my dad hitting big on Gato del Sol (I believe he was the SAD winner that year) the only year he go to attend. I don't want to waste $10-15 on this horse if you think there is enough early speed to tire him out in a speed duel. If he is the sort of horse who likes to set pedestrian fractions on the lead and then kick it into gear over the last couple furlongs, then I may give him a serious look. Thanks!
 
I'm leaning towards Goldenscents as well hoping Krigger can sit just off the lead and not press Falling Skies to run like Bodemeister did last year.

If I could get the FL Derby out of my head, I might like Itsmyluckyday more. The differences between Itsmyluckyday's bad race and Goildenscents' are Krigger immediately said what he did wrong and then reversed the outcome the next time out versus Itsmyluckyday not having that opportunity.

Additionally Itsmyluckyday had a perfect trip versus Orb and got passed like he was standing still. Goldenscents went a suicidal 45 4/5 second in the San Felipe, being pressed every step of the way. Then in Santa Anita Derby, Krigger was able to keep his mount stationed in second in a slower 46 2/5 and then drew off for fun. That's what he needs to do Saturday.

I hope Krigger doesn't go to the rail after clearing out of the gate. I hope he stays in the two or three path. That way he won't get pinched and could force Falling Skies to past him.
 
WilmingtonDeac said:
Okay..because I'm slow, I'm gonna see if I understand this correctly.

In your above example, in Race #8 I have horse #'s 1, 2 & 3. In Race #9 I have horse #'s 3, 4 & 5. In Race #10 I have horse #'s 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5 and in Race #11 I have horse #'s 6, 7, 8 & 9. If a horse of mine wins each race I'm a winner. Is that pretty much it?

Also, how much would the above bet cost? Is there a limit on # of horses I can pick in each of the 4 races? Sorry for all the questions, I've tried Google for an example from previous years with no luck as of yet.
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Okay..I think I have figured it out. Your example ($0.50 bet) would cost (3x3x5x4)/2 = $90. 4 people splitting the bet would get to the $22.50 you mentioned.
 
I'm not sure if this how it will be tomorrow, but for the early bettors here is a $108 (or $98 if you don't do the saftey bet) investment:

$15 W/P Goldenscents
$10 W/P Orb
$4 Exacta Box Goldenscents/Orb/Revolutionary
$2 Exacta Boxes- Verranzano with the other three
$1 Trifecta box those four

Safety Bet - $5 W/P Revolutionary - If he wins you'll get most of your money back.
 
WilmingtonDeac said:
Okay..I think I have figured it out. Your example ($0.50 bet) would cost (3x3x5x4)/2 = $90. 4 people splitting the bet would get to the $22.50 you mentioned.
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You've got it man.....On the Derby and the race you pick each of your buddies get to pick a horse. In the Derby there's a wild card horse.

The other races you yell, spit and fight. :)
 
DiegoTiger said:
Not as much as I used to, but it's pretty fun if you've never been...
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Haven't yet, but my old boss is a pretty big time owner around there and has invited me to come down once the season starts.
 
Normandy Invasion will probably be my fifth horse. His last race drives me crazy. He did have to check early in the lane. He did get out and was closing like a freight train, but by then Verranzano had been geared down.

He also had no excuse not to go by Overanalyze in the Remsen.

This is the classic horse that screws me.
 
Thanks RJ!! Think I'll wait and see what the track conditions are before any decision tmrw but it looks like Golden is a good value pick nonetheless. Obv in a huge field a lot can happen but you're better off going with early speed when a better CFB horse can easily get trapped in traffic and never make his move. Good luck!!
 
I had a meeting in Cerrrios and dropped in to Los Alamitos to make some bets.

The good news is I was right to say we should throw out Dancing With Julia in the Oaks. She cane in fourth.

I can't believe a $79.60 horse beat my exacta box that came in 2nd and 3rd.

I made a bunch of bet for the Derby. Basically I bet the $98 ticket with the exception of putting Normandy Invasion in place of Verranzano in the trifecta box.

I'll put the $200 ticket up later.
 
THE BIG BANKROLL $182-202:

The reality is I would probably add only a small amount to the original Derby bet and do about $70-90 Pick 4. I'd either do a 3x3x4x5 (Derby)

$20 WP Goldenscents
$10 WP Orb
$5 Exacta Box Goldenscents/Orb/Revolutionary
$2 Exacta Boxes- Verranzano with the other three
$2 Exacta Boxes Normandy Invasion with the other four
$1 Trifecta box those five

Optional Safety Bets - $5 WP - Revolutionary; $5 WP Normandy Invasion
 
A friend of mine, who hit a couple of Pick 6s, is going with Itsmyluckyday.
 
As of now, there is a paltry $4.3M bet and surprisingly Revlotionary is the 5/1 favorite. There will be minutes leading up to the race where over $4M will be added to the pot.

Looking at the patterns, I would not be shocked to see five horses as close to co-favorites about 6-1.
 
RJKarl said:
As of now, there is a paltry $4.3M bet and surprisingly Revlotionary is the 5/1 favorite. There will be minutes leading up to the race where over $4M will be added to the pot.

Looking at the patterns, I would not be shocked to see five horses as close to co-favorites about 6-1.
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Guessing the chance of rain is the reasoning behind Revolutionary jumping up?
 
If you go to the Kentucky Derby site, a couple of their "experts" love him. Plus casual bettors see Calvin Borel up and know he's three of past 5/6 Derbies and bet him.

He definitely has a shot.

If it rains watch the earlier races to see how the rail is going. There is such a huge crown on the CD track sometimes it gets really deep along the rail. This makes it very tiring for the horses. The combination of post position and Calvin BORAIL will keep Revolutionary on or near the rail for most of the race.
 
Once the pool gets to about $20,000,000 you won't see a lot of change. You could go from 7-1 to 5-1 but I doubt much more. Revolutionary could still go off at 10-1. Verranzano is 9-1 now. I wouldn't be surprise to see him at 5-1 or 6-1.

What's funny is seeing total with pennies in the pool. The reason for this is the overseas betting's currency conversion.
 
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