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2013 Kentucky Derby- The Day After

RJKarl

RJKarl

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With yesterday's Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass Stakes, all the major KY Derby prep races are done.

Here's how they stand in the points race: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses

In past years, you qualified for the Derby by your graded stakes winnings. They changed it this year. Each prep race was assigned a value in points. As the season progressed more points were awarded for the race.

Let's look at the horses:

Top Contenders:

Verrazano - undefeated, will be favored. Has been very good, but I'm not sold yet. Will be there at the end.

Orb - Legendary trainer Shug McGaughey may have the best horse in the Derby. He's done nothing wrong and keeps getting better.

Overanalyze -won the AR Derby yesterday in a big fashion. Looks like he's on the upswing.

Revolutionary - won the LA Derby- a cool pick. He won but not as impressively

Goldenscents - Trained by last year's winning trainer, Doug O'Neil. Looked horrible in losing two races ago. Looked good in winning Santa Anita Derby. May not get the distance.

Next Group:

Normandy Invasion - another "hot pick" -came in second to Overanalyze and Verrazano in his last two race. Looked like he was going to catch Verranzano in the Wood after being blocked in, but Verranzano knew he had the race won and may have geared down.

Java's War - will take a lot of money after his last to first win in the Bluegrass. But he was no challenge to Verranzano-don't get suckered

Live horse who will be over 10-1

Governor Charlie- this one looks like a Bob Baffert special. He only raced in the Sunland Derby, but it may have been the most impressive race of the spring. It wasn't a strong field but he destroyed them. He looked a lot like Bodiemeister to me.

Will take Charge- closed with a rush in the Rebel to give Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lucas- will be a heart bet for many.

Black Onyx - blew by a decent field to win the Spiral Stakes. Jockey Jersey Joe Bravo was beside himself after the race. He said he had tons left. May be too lightly raced.

My Top 6

This will likely change due to post position and other factors

Orb
Verranzano
Governor Charlie
Revolutionary
Normandy Invasion
Black Onyx
 
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Yes you can. You can bet a trifecta box of all four. That way if any three finish 1-2-3 in any order you would win.

A four horse box for the trifecta would cost $12 for a $1 box.

What you could also do is if you want to bet $36 you can pick three separate horses to win and then box four others for 2nd and 3rd.
 
go home horse, you're drunk

 
Shorty said:
RJ, I love your horse racing analysis. Thanks.
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Agreed. And I'll be backing Orb as well. Love his running style for the Derby, and Rosario is a jock that deserves more credit than he gets (at least outside of CA). Shug deserves one, it's his best chance. I'm predicting he'll be the shortest price by post time however, and I hate playing favorites in the Derby. Will be keying him over a ton of exotics.
 
Rosario is almost as good as Rafael Bejarano and John Valasquez.

A key to watch for is who Johnny V. chooses to ride between Orb and Verrazano. He has first call on both.

Something else to be prepared for is it won't be unlikely that or more of the horses are scratched between now and the Derby. I Want Revenge, Uncle Mo and others have been in the last week or last couple of days.
 
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RJKarl said:
Rosario is almost as good as Rafael Bejarano and John Valasquez.

A key to watch for is who Johnny V. chooses to ride between Orb and Verrazano. He has first call on both.

Something else to be prepared for is it won't be unlikely that or more of the horses are scratched between now and the Derby. I Want Revenge, Uncle Mo and others have been in the last week or last couple of days.
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Already been confirmed that JR is on Verrazano and Rosario on Orb.
 
That would give Verranzano an edge.

Let's see how all the horses take to Churchill Downs.
 
I really think Overanalyze may take a lot of sucker's bets. He looked great blowing away the field in Arkansas. However, it was a very slow race. He only got an 88 Beyer's Speed figure.

To put this in perspective, Verranzano got 101 and 95 (he was geared down) in his last two races. Orb got 97 and 97. Goldenscents got 105 (still not convinced he can the extra furlong).

Overanalyze's 88 was the lowest rating of any of the fourteen US races.

RE: Goldenscents- I could change my mind. He looked so bad in the San Felipe. I may decide that's a race to draw a line through.

Draw a line through means you dismiss the race as being an aberration. You can do this if you think the horse freaked and raced better than he/she ever will again or of you think he had a bad. Remember even Zenyatta and Secretariat lost races.
 
TVG is having a betting promotion that could help each of us.

If you want to bet the KY Derby and other Triple Crown Races, PM me.

The basics are if I refer you:

You bet $50 and keep your account open for 30 days you and I will each get $50 in betting money thirty days after you bet the $50. If you bet on the Derby or before, we'll be able to use their money for the Belmont.

You can't take that $50 out, but you can keep betting what you have and can keep any profits.

If several of you do this, I would gladly make a promise that if there is a profit in my account from the Triple Crown, Del Mar and the Breeders Cup, I'll donate 50% of the profit to the board for the board's needs.
 
RJ, what is TVG? Can we bet for this online?
 
TVG is the largest horse racing online betting service in the US. It's owned by a huge British company called BetFair.

On TVG you can bet races from all over the country. You even bet Turf Paradise from your office. :)

You get full track odds.

If want to sign up PM or email me.
 
If you want to see how your horses are working at Churchill Downs go to the link below. Yesterday it rained some, we got to see Verranzano and Governor Charlie work over an off track. They looked solid.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/workouts
 
The race is next Saturday. Thankfully, everyone is still healthy.

I'm not sure if I'm getting suckered, overthinking or catching a likely 15-1 winner in Governor Charlie. His workout and gallop look really good. It's very rare that Bob Baffert ever brings a horse into a major, major race so lightly raced. I can't decide if this is the ultimate red flag or green flag.

Add to this the Governor is owned by Baffert's #1 owner and party partner Mike Pegram and it becomes more intriguing. He's owned KY Derby winner Real Quiet, KY Oaks and legendary mare Silverbulletday and many other million dollar winners. Why is he so comfortable without other races for Governor Charlie?

Even more puzzling is these two guys love to have to fun. They love to talk. There has been almost Marcel Marceau-like silence about this horse.

At this point, I'm almost definitely going to have at least a saver bet on Governor Charlie and will use him in the exotics.

EDIT:

I've looked at several sites and they have Governor Charlie at 22-28/1. That's going to be really hard not to put $10 across on.
 
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RJKarl said:
The race is next Saturday. Thankfully, everyone is still healthy.

I'm not sure if I'm getting suckered, overthinking or catching a likely 15-1 winner in Governor Charlie. His workout and gallop look really good. It's very rare that Bob Baffert ever brings a horse into a major, major race so lightly raced. I can't decide if this is the ultimate red flag or green flag.

Add to this the Governor is owned by Baffert's #1 owner and party partner Mike Pegram and it becomes more intriguing. He's owned KY Derby winner Real Quiet, KY Oaks and legendary mare Silverbulletday and many other million dollar winners. Why is he so comfortable without other races for Governor Charlie?

Even more puzzling is these two guys love to have to fun. They love to talk. There has been almost Marcel Marceau-like silence about this horse.

At this point, I'm almost definitely going to have at least a saver bet on Governor Charlie and will use him in the exotics.

EDIT:

I've looked at several sites and they have Governor Charlie at 22-28/1. That's going to be really hard not to put $10 across on.
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The Governor not running, as of this morning. With Code West also on the sidelines, no runner for Baffert. Derby always more interesting with Baffert in the mix.

I'm sticking with Orb, his work this morning was impressive galloping out 5f in just over a minute. Pretty similar to his last work before winning the Fla Derby. Just hope price isn't too short, and the racing gods give rosario the lanes he's going to need.
 
I was talking with someone who knows Baffert and he said it was whether or not they thought the Governor could get a good workout in this AM. If not they will point to the Preakness.

I doubt Orb will be under 4-1. You might even get 6-1.

If I were to guess I'd put the odds at:

Verranzano 7/2
Orb 9/2
Revolutionary 7
Goldenscents 7
Overanalyze 9
Normandy Invasion 10
Java's War 12
 
I'm not sure if it's good or bad news that all the contenders have the needed "Dosage Index". This is a formula to determine if the horse is bred to go the Derby distance. Since about 1900, only one or two horses have won without the Dosage.
 
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