What do you think the odds are that there will be a season?
Short answer, I still think it is significantly more likely that we will have a season than we won't. Long, rambling answer, see below…
Mainly, because there is a ton of money involved. I don’t know what the fanbase is like in North Carolina, but Philly is a pretty strong hockey market, and even here there are a ton of fans that treat hockey like casual college bball fans treat college bball… they start paying attention late in the season when it starts to mean something. I think the NHL can still capture the majority of revenues for the year as long as they have a partial season. The season will be extra exciting because every game will mean that much more. And nothing in the regular season generates revenue like the playoffs. I’d bet they can still generate $2B-$2.5B in revenue, compared to $3.3B last year. That would be a hell of a lot to give up over contract term limits and transition rules in one year of a 6-10 year agreement.
In addition, a lost season could have a brutal impact on fan and sponsor support. I’ve seen a few statements from the owners’ side that a lost season could mean at least one team going under. Fans and sponsors weren’t really prepared for a long lockout like they were last time around. And the league has done a TERRIBLE job explaining to the public why they think changes to the system are necessary.
And, most of all, a lost season would mean some really messy legal battles. With no urgency to get a season started, both sides would go full out in the courts. The league could face paying out damages x3 plus the thing they seemed to have feared the most about Fehr, that he’ll go after the cap. The players could face the owners pulling guaranteed contracts off the table, and a lockout that will go well into another season of their short careers.
Egos could always take over, of course, but it would be insane.