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2020 Democratic Presidential Nominees

ChrisL68 said:
So you're just uttly full of crap okay
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What?

I can’t wait for your dumb ass to have to vote for Sanders and Warren...or maybe cville is right and you’ll ultimately pull the lever for the Donald.
 
Strickland33 said:
TITCR

And RJ - reading is FUNDAMENTAL

I’m saying voter turnout helped Dems take back the House; moderates and independents who couldn’t bear to vote for a Clinton (but definitely would have voted for any other Dem - just ask them!) elected Trump.
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I did read what you said, but, as usual, you neglect to include the largest bloc of non-voters in your placing blame.
 
So are these voters irredeemable who are going to vote for Trump or are they people that realized their error and voted overwhelmingly Democrat in 18? I guess your response depends on who you're responding to.
 
Strickland33 said:
How does the last house election negate my point about moderates and independents electing trump? (Speaking of lazy analysis and ideological barricades...) Because they did. It’s in the numbers.

My claim has always been that voter turnout wins Dem elections, not the mythical center and libertarians. I’m pretty sure the voting data from 2018 supports that claim.
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Yeah I don’t think this is accurate.


How Trump-skeptical Republicans swung the 2018 midterms
Suburban Never-Trump and Trump-skeptical Republicans aren’t a myth. And they vote.

Never-Trumper and Trump-skeptical voters defied conventional wisdom last week: They mattered. Their numbers were small, but in tight races, suburbanite registered Republicans voted for Democrats over Republicans, helping to send them to Congress.

My colleague Ezra Klein wrote that the 2018 midterms marked the fall of the “not-quite Trumpers,” noting the loss of some of Trump’s biggest critics within the Republican Party and in Congress, like Sen. Jeff Flake (who retired) and Sen. Mark Sanford (who lost his primary). But Trump should remember that Never Trumpers and the Trump-skeptical — or as Henry Olsen called them in the Journal for American Greatness, “RINOS” (Republicans in name only) — still vote — and still matter.

As Olsen wrote, “The biggest reason Martha McSally lost is the same reason Republicans lost control of the House: RINOs. Across the nation, moderate college-educated independents who had frequently backed Republicans in prior elections switched sides.”

If he wants to win in 2020, Trump will need to win again in suburban areas in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and win with Trump-skeptical Republicans. The GOP’s problem in 2018 wasn’t just that Democrats came out motivated and in bigger numbers than in 2014. Their problem was that a small percentage of Republicans who don’t like Trump didn’t stay home — instead, they showed up, and they voted for Democrats.
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Full: https://www.vox.com/2018/11/15/18078974/trump-gop-midterms-2018-arizona-texas-never-trump
 
MIELLENIALS like Strickland KNEW what the outcome would be if they let Trump get elected. But they did and are now COMPLICICT. . What's classic is Strickland blaming everyone else for MILLENNIALS not participating in the most important of their lives. It's going to take many years to recover from what Trump. Some things won't be able to be fixed.
 
Newenglanddeac said:
[/B]

Yeah I don’t think this is accurate.


How Trump-skeptical Republicans swung the 2018 midterms
Suburban Never-Trump and Trump-skeptical Republicans aren’t a myth. And they vote.



Full: https://www.vox.com/2018/11/15/18078974/trump-gop-midterms-2018-arizona-texas-never-trump
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Similar claims are made about black women and young people. Both seem to be plausible, though in general, Dems win high turnout elections. That’s my claim. It seems like we agree on this.
 
Strickland33 said:
You’re a disaffected something that’s for sure.
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Only 74% of Bernie supporters ended up voting for Clinton in the general. Of the 26% who didn't vote 1 in 10 swung for Trump.

Thanks for Trump, Bernie bros. You have made an embarrassment of our country with your radical ideology.
 
Strickland33 said:
Similar claims are made about black women and young people. Both seem to be plausible, though in general, Dems win high turnout elections. That’s my claim. It seems like we agree on this.
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But you said “not the mythical center and libertarians”.

But in many of the 2018 House races that flipped from red to blue, it was often disaffected Republicans voting for Democrats that gave the Democrats the edge.

That was on top of high Democratic turnout.

So I’m saying you need both high turnout and the ability to bring some independents and moderate Rs into the D column.
 
Newenglanddeac said:
But you said “not the mythical center and libertarians”.

But in many of the 2018 House races that flipped from red to blue, it was often disaffected Republicans voting for Democrats that gave the Democrats the edge.

That was on top of high Democratic turnout.

So I’m saying you need both high turnout and the ability to bring some independents and moderate Rs into the D column.
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That’s fair. Good points.
 
Newenglanddeac said:
But you said “not the mythical center and libertarians”.

But in many of the 2018 House races that flipped from red to blue, it was often disaffected Republicans voting for Democrats that gave the Democrats the edge.

That was on top of high Democratic turnout.

So I’m saying you need both high turnout and the ability to bring some independents and moderate Rs into the D column.
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VA-2 and VA-7 are 2 such races that 2 more conservative Dems flipped in 2018, and these are definitely disaffected white exurb, well educated districts that had been Pub for many years. FWIW, Hillary got almost the exact same # of votes as Barack got in 2012 - right at 65.9 mil, and Trump had only about 2 mil more than Romney. And yes, she was a shite candidate who ran a shite campaign who scared off other possible legit candidates, but she still won the general by like 2-3%. Because Trump pisses off so many folks on both coasts, I believe he'll lose the coasts by even higher percentages in 2020. When you consider large states like FL & NC are already close, and 2 traditionally Pub large states in TX & GA are trending purple, I've been thinking whoever the Dem nominee is will likely have to win the overall general by > 5% in order to win the EC.
 
 
WFcatamount22 said:
Only 74% of Bernie supporters ended up voting for Clinton in the general. Of the 26% who didn't vote 1 in 10 swung for Trump.

Thanks for Trump, Bernie bros. You have made an embarrassment of our country with your radical ideology.
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When you run the numbers that you posted, that means approximately 343,000 of Bernie's 13 million voters switched and voted for Trump, out of 62.9 million votes that trump got. That is a little over half a percent of his votes, so really the 99.46% percent of his voters that were not Bernie Bros, ie, Republicans, are the ones who have made an embarrassment of our country.
 
birdman said:
When you run the numbers that you posted, that means approximately 343,000 of Bernie's 13 million voters switched and voted for Trump, out of 62.9 million votes that trump got. That is a little over half a percent of his votes, so really the 99.46% percent of his voters that were not Bernie Bros, ie, Republicans, are the ones who have made an embarrassment of our country.
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First of all, if 24% of Bernie voters didn't vote for Hillary, Catamounts 1/10 is ludicrously low.

Next, even if it was only 350,000 votes changed to Trump, it would have only taken about 12-14% of that number to be in PA, MI, WI to have changed the electoral college. Trump won those states by a total of 77,000 votes. If 40,000 changed to Hillary, she would have won (+40,000 for Hillary; -40,000 for Trump=a net win for Hillary).
 
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