• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

2020 Democratic Presidential Nominees

RJKarl said:
First of all, if 24% of Bernie voters didn't vote for Hillary, Catamounts 1/10 is ludicrously low.

Next, even if it was only 350,000 votes changed to Trump, it would have only taken about 12-14% of that number to be in PA, MI, WI to have changed the electoral college. Trump won those states by a total of 77,000 votes. If 40,000 changed to Hillary, she would have won (+40,000 for Hillary; -40,000 for Trump=a net win for Hillary).
Click to expand...
Dude i said only 74% of people that voted for Bernie voted for Hilldawg in the general. 1 in 10 Bernie voters flipped. That is not ludicrously low, that is a factually accurate number.

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/5458...voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds

Schaffner's numbers show that after a bitter Democratic primary, more than 1 in 10 of those who voted in the primaries for the very progressive Sanders ended up voting for the Republican in the general election, rather than for the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton.
Click to expand...

Why do you lie RJ?!? I demand a full apology.
 
RJKarl said:
First of all, if 24% of Bernie voters didn't vote for Hillary, Catamounts 1/10 is ludicrously low.

Next, even if it was only 350,000 votes changed to Trump, it would have only taken about 12-14% of that number to be in PA, MI, WI to have changed the electoral college. Trump won those states by a total of 77,000 votes. If 40,000 changed to Hillary, she would have won (+40,000 for Hillary; -40,000 for Trump=a net win for Hillary).
Click to expand...

He is saying that ~25% Bernie voters didn't vote for Hillary in the General. Of that ~25%, 10% voted for Trump which means the other 90% stayed home, or voted for a third party. Bernie got ~13 million votes in the primary, 13mil x 0.25 x 0.1 is about 334,000. The "analysis" misses the point that 9.7 million Bernie voters voted for Hillary in the general, and nearly 100% of Bush, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, etc. voters voted for Trump so blaming Bernie bros for Trump is misdirected.
 
birdman said:
He is saying that ~25% Bernie voters didn't vote for Hillary in the General. Of that ~25%, 10% voted for Trump which means the other 90% stayed home, or voted for a third party. Bernie got ~13 million votes in the primary, 13mil x 0.25 x 0.1 is about 334,000. The "analysis" misses the point that 9.7 million Bernie voters voted for Hillary in the general, and nearly 100% of Bush, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, etc. voters voted for Trump so blaming Bernie bros for Trump is misdirected.
Click to expand...

It also means that there were 3.3mil votes left on the table that Hillary should have received had Bernie not divided the party. That definitely covers the difference.
 
Has VA Governor Northam endorsed any member yet of the 2020 Dem primary field?

The smart money must be on Biden given their similar views on race.
 
birdman said:
He is saying that ~25% Bernie voters didn't vote for Hillary in the General. Of that ~25%, 10% voted for Trump which means the other 90% stayed home, or voted for a third party. Bernie got ~13 million votes in the primary, 13mil x 0.25 x 0.1 is about 334,000. The "analysis" misses the point that 9.7 million Bernie voters voted for Hillary in the general, and nearly 100% of Bush, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, etc. voters voted for Trump so blaming Bernie bros for Trump is misdirected.
Click to expand...

Well stated.
 
WFcatamount22 said:
It also means that there were 3.3mil votes left on the table that Hillary should have received had Bernie not divided the party. That definitely covers the difference.
Click to expand...

NVM

Though again, you’re assuming that these voters were registered Dems. There are actually people who vote third party because they (somehow) like the candidates. I don’t understand it personally because Johnson and Stein are donks, but that’s just the way it is...
 
Last edited:
WFcatamount22 said:
It also means that there were 3.3mil votes left on the table that Hillary should have received had Bernie not divided the party. That definitely covers the difference.
Click to expand...

Covers what difference? How many more votes did Hillary need? She already beat trump by >3 millions.
 
Strickland33 said:
NVM

Though again, you’re assuming that these voters were registered Dems. There are actually people who vote third party because they (somehow) like the candidates. I don’t understand it personally because Johnson and Stein are donks, but that’s just the way it is...
Click to expand...

26% of 13mil.
 
birdman said:
Covers what difference? How many more votes did Hillary need? She already beat trump by >3 millions.
Click to expand...

Not very many because Bernie divided the Rust belt with talks of fair trade policies, which Trump then jumped all over the the general.
 
birdman said:
I think you're wrong.

I love how conservatives continue to blame democrats for Trump.
Click to expand...

I think he’s wrong, too, but don’t have the time to cross-tabulate the data to prove him wrong. I don’t recall reading much analysis on this either bc #narratives...
 
I voted for Bernie in the primary and then voted for Hillary in the general (because I’m not a total idiot).

We’re well beyond the point of attempting to reconcile any Donald voters with reality. If you’re still a Donald supporter now you’re just a fucking moron. You know who is to blame for Donald’s election the most? These morons who voted for an unqualified narcissistic asshat because they thought it was edgy or cool. And all the republicans who couldn’t put their own ego as it relates to their identity as staunch conservatives.
 
Also in 20 years the number of people who will claim they were Donald supporters will pale in comparison to the actual number of people who voted for him. Gonna be like everyone saying they were all in on MLK all along when only something like 35 percent of people thought his tactics were appropriate during the civil rights movement.

Just gonna whitewash their own history as always.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Also in 20 years the number of people who will claim they were Donald supporters will pale in comparison to the actual number of people who voted for him. Gonna be like everyone saying they were all in on MLK all along when only something like 35 percent of people thought his tactics were appropriate during the civil rights movement.

Just gonna whitewash their own history as always.
Click to expand...

To be fair...in 20 years a lot of Trump voters will be dead.
 
 
I keep seeing people freak out about all the people running for President who could be running for Senate instead.

Rubio declared in April 2015, was considered a top contender, won three primaries, got beat in FL, finished third in the delegate count, dropped out in March 2016 and defended his Senate seat with little problem.

I think we will see people dropping out before Iowa and the field narrow down significantly after SC. Plenty of time for Senate contenders to refocus their efforts.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top