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2020 Democratic Presidential Nominees

I don’t have access to the data right now because I’m out of pocket today, but CCES ran the numbers on Bernie voters in 2016 and in the general and found that there were enough Trump/3rd party voting Bernie Bros in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that would have flipped all 3 states to Hillary if they voted for her. I posted them on a thread a while back.

I’m not blaming Bernie Bros for Trump 100%, obviously Republicans are like 99.9% culpable, but they’re not totally absolved of blame.

If Catamounts numbers are correct, at a minimum 99.46% of the blame for Trump is on Republicans. It is a big assumption that 0.54% of trump votes that were Bernie voters in the primary were democrats in the first place. Bernie wasn’t even a Democrat until December of 2015.

The focus on blaming Bernie Bros for Trump’s election is bullshit though. Republicans nominated him and gleefully elected him to the presidency. If the pubs hadn’t nominated him who would the Bernie bros have voted for then?
 
 
She's very liberal and from the northeast. And as we've discussed plenty over the last few years, it's harder to run for national office as a woman. Ask Hillary. You never hear a man being called shrill or a guy's looks being discussed anywhere near as much. And as I've pointed out on this thread, the states deciding this election are PA, MI, WI, VA, NC, FL, NH, NV and AZ. I believe she'd have a hard time winning culturally more conservative states.

I tend to agree with this. We've learned that America is pretty dumb, hates gays and women (including women who hate women), and we have the ridiculously stupid Electoral College, so, yeah, I think that ticket has a better chance of losing than say, a Biden/Beto ticket.
 
If Catamounts numbers are correct, at a minimum 99.46% of the blame for Trump is on Republicans. It is a big assumption that 0.54% of trump votes that were Bernie voters in the primary were democrats in the first place. Bernie wasn’t even a Democrat until December of 2015.

The focus on blaming Bernie Bros for Trump’s election is bullshit though. Republicans nominated him and gleefully elected him to the presidency. If the pubs hadn’t nominated him who would the Bernie bros have voted for then?

This has been hashed and rehashed already, but you are also absolving/ignoring those who stayed home. Of course Republicans deserve the lion's share of blame -- that has never been the dispute. But bros need to accept some responsibility as well.
 

I don't think he honestly believes this. He's painting a rosy picture saying he's the guy who will be able to get things done. When in reality, no matter who wins (unless it's Trump again), very little will get done.
 
Any chance of getting anything accomplished is going to be dependent on winning Senate seats in Battleground states that Biden is going to help a lot more than a Northeast liberal.
 
Biden is trying to appeal to people who still think bipartisanship is possible, low attention base democrat voters. That's a good chunk of the party. I think much of the base realizes Republicans are too far gone and won't work with anybody. I don't know if that's a winning bet in the primary even though it's correct.
 
The idea that only one person from any state could represent Democrats is silly. Schumer needs to create a strong infrastructure in every state and quality people will line up to run.

Its not that only one person can represent the Dems, its that the strongest potential candidates in those states are choosing not to. So many of these Dems see a vulnerable White House and would rather take the chance to be President, than run for Senate. DSCC is trying to put the strongest and most recognizable candidates out there: Beto in Texas, Hickenlooper in CO, Bullock in Montana, Abrams in GA. That is a potential 4 seat swing in the Senate. Money, time and resources that are going to White House bids, which for several of these candidates is becoming purely a vanity thing, could be spent on a Senate Race. While the opportunity exists for them to course adjust later on, they are still missing out now.

I am not so naive as to think that any Dem candidate who runs in those states has a chance, taking back the Senate should be just as important as taking back the White House.
 
She's very liberal and from the northeast. And as we've discussed plenty over the last few years, it's harder to run for national office as a woman. Ask Hillary. You never hear a man being called shrill or a guy's looks being discussed anywhere near as much. And as I've pointed out on this thread, the states deciding this election are PA, MI, WI, VA, NC, FL, NH, NV and AZ. I believe she'd have a hard time winning culturally more conservative states.

There is at least a little irony in that the candidate who is most similar to Hillary from a politics perspective is Biden, and everyone seems to think he's the most electable. But she will be compared to Hillary because ovaries, even though they are miles apart. Maybe you're right and it really is as simple as America won't vote for a woman. Depressing.
 
There is at least a little irony in that the candidate who is most similar to Hillary from a politics perspective is Biden, and everyone seems to think he's the most electable. But she will be compared to Hillary because ovaries, even though they are miles apart. Maybe you're right and it really is as simple as America won't vote for a woman. Depressing.

Not just ovaries though. Nobody is comparing Kamala or Tulsi to Hillary.
 
There is at least a little irony in that the candidate who is most similar to Hillary from a politics perspective is Biden, and everyone seems to think he's the most electable. But she will be compared to Hillary because ovaries, even though they are miles apart. Maybe you're right and it really is as simple as America won't vote for a woman. Depressing.

Disagree, Biden plays well with the MI/PA/WI blue collar democratic voters that Hillary turned her back on in 2016.
 
There is at least a little irony in that the candidate who is most similar to Hillary from a politics perspective is Biden, and everyone seems to think he's the most electable. But she will be compared to Hillary because ovaries, even though they are miles apart. Maybe you're right and it really is as simple as America won't vote for a woman. Depressing.

Yes, it's depressing and unfortunate. But let's separate out ideology and gender for a second. As a woman pol, it's so tough striking the right balance between being assertive and having an agreeable personality and still come off relatable. Of the Dems in the race, I think Harris pulls this off the best by far because, to me, she's the 2nd best communicator to Buttigieg in the race. I think 1 of the reasons Klobuchar and Gillibrand haven't gotten any traction is they're both pretty bland in terms of personality (and I was briefly on the Klobuchar train a few months ago and was disappointed she got zero traction). Warren is a much more forceful personality, however she doesn't have a sense of humor and isn't that relatable - her personality is more like Hillary's than anyone else running. Neither Warren's personality nor her ideology are going to serve her well in states like VA, NC, FL, AZ or NV - though I'm not sure it would hurt her quite as badly in the midwest battlegrounds. And while this sucks, at the same time we're electing more women to congress and to state houses in the last couple of years. Here in VA for example, we flipped 16 delegate seats with women winning a handful of those, and 6 months ago we flipped 3 house seats with women winning all 3. So it's getting better.

As for ideology, the left wing of the party is certainly generating the most press these days, but it's not like the ardent left was responsible for flipping the house last year. The AOCs of the world mostly won safe blue districts, whereas it was the Spanbergers and Lurias who mostly flipped the reddish purple districts in states like VA, NJ and PA. And yes, ideologically, Biden is much closer to the Clinton/Obama wing of the party than some of the other Dem aspirants. But I would also submit to you that ideology is way down on the list of reasons Hillary lost. Way further up on that list of reasons was her personality, her shitty tin eared campaign (for the 2nd time in a row), her paying more attention to GA & AZ than MI & WI and the shite email controversy starring Comey. I hear many here and in the press calling for bold leftward change. But I again say that history isn't exactly on your side. Our 3 most progressive nominees during that period were McGovern, Mondale and Dukakis, whereas Carter, Bubba, Gore, Kerry, Obama and Hillary were more centrist Dem - and of the latter group, only 2nd time Carter and Kerry lost the popular vote. Getting back to this year, Biden enters the race to a lot of press saying his time has passed (and yes, we all wish he would have run in 2016), and it's not like he has well formulated positions - he seems to be the slowest in developing those. But he's leading in the primary polls, and more importantly, he fares much better in the state v. Trump polls than anyone else. Now this could all change in the next 7-8 months, but I find it interesting and 1 year ago I would not have predicted we'd be where we are.
 
Klob and Gillibrand don’t get compared to Hillary either.

Warren has an uphill climb but she’s running a good campaign and giving herself a chance to win over skeptics on both sides. I though her take on going on Fox News was consistent with her campaign. I think Pete and Klob going on Fox News is consistent with their campaigns.
 
Shit. Just say shit.

I audibly laughed. I'm more of an anglophile than I'd like to admit. When it comes to language, I like shite better than shit, in hospital better than in the hospital and Tottenham are winning better than Tottenham is winning.
 
Klob and Gillibrand don’t get compared to Hillary either.

Warren has an uphill climb but she’s running a good campaign and giving herself a chance to win over skeptics on both sides. I though her take on going on Fox News was consistent with her campaign. I think Pete and Klob going on Fox News is consistent with their campaigns.

Warren got off to a shaky start - just let the DNA thing go - but is running a better campaign now. I could care less whether any of them go on Fox. Agree about Klobuchar and Gillibrand. I was on the Gillibrand bandwagon 2 years ago but have since gotten off and get why she isn't moving the needle. But I liked Klobuchar and hoped she would get some traction and have been disappointed. I also wanted to see Govs Inslee and Bullock get some traction, but they're not either. So now I'm liking Pete the most, which probably means his poll numbers will pull a Beto over the next month.
 
I audibly laughed. I'm more of an anglophile than I'd like to admit. When it comes to language, I like shite better than shit, in hospital better than in the hospital and Tottenham are winning better than Tottenham is winning.

Speaking of shite...
 
Isn't "shite" really more of a Scottish thing than an Anglo thing?
 
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