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2020 Democratic Presidential Nominees

I think the best way to turn out young people and POC is to get RTed by the CIA.
 
Strickland33 said:
Obama didn’t automatically increase turnout. The DNC had an incredible grassroots effort (designed by Board favorite Howard Dean) that Obama was able to build on with his already impressive campaign apparatus.

The Democratic folks least likely to vote are young people, particularly young POC. Who do you think they support? I have shared the survey data on here before, but it’s pretty clearly Sanders and then Warren.

The “no we can’t” sector of the base reliably votes, but a progressive candidate rallies the rest, which is why Obama completely destroyed the primary field as a relative newcomer back in 2007-2008.
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So was it a grassroots effort or Obama?

I’m saying we don’t have an Obama so we need the grassroots effort.
 
It's more complex than that. Dean's exceptional 50 States Strategy built the basic apparatus than allowed the Obama campaign to build one of the more successful grassroots campaign of all time. It's never just one or the other. It's a "both/and;" it's never an "either/or." When the Dems don't do base building work/grassroots organizing/whatever you want to call it, their candidates typically lose in low turnout elections.

Perez has been pretty meh as a DNC head from what I understand (nothing innovative, nothing offensive), but the Sanders and Warren campaigns also have name recognition/visibility, good web presences, and good reputations among the institutionalized left that did a lot of the more influential base-building work in 2008 (e.g., labor unions, former ACORN agencies, etc.) on top of the DNC's organizing efforts.
 
The only candidate with charisma that approaches Obama's in 2008 is Sanders (and Sanders isn't anywhere close to being as charismatic as Obama, just to be clear). Warren and Biden definitely don't have it, but I do think the Warren organization is doing a pretty good job so far. I still don't know why Biden is even running given his messaging and campaign's effort at this point. He's going to have to stand for something beyond beating Trump if he wants to win this thing.
 
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Strickland33 said:
The only candidate with charisma that approaches Obama's in 2008 is Sanders (and Sanders isn't anywhere close to being as charismatic as Obama, just to be clear). Warren and Biden definitely don't have it, but I do think the Warren organization is doing a pretty good job so far. I still don't know why Biden is even running given his messaging and campaign's effort at this point. He's going to have to stand for something beyond beating Trump if he wants to win this thing.
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Grumpy old man =/= charisma.
 
Bernie's charisma is completely lost on me. I'm fine with most of his politics (or at least his political theory- his chance of getting any of his signature stuff passed is negligible), but his personality does nothing for me.

There is nobody in the race with any charisma. Which is why we are going to lose.
 
DeaconSig said:
Bernie's charisma is completely lost on me. I'm fine with most of his politics (or at least his political theory- his chance of getting any of his signature stuff passed is negligible), but his personality does nothing for me.

There is nobody in the race with any charisma. Which is why we are going to lose.
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Dude, in 2016, Bernie had a bird land on his podium while he was giving a speech in front of a huge crowd. It was like Cinderella! That's charisma in a nutshell.
 
A lot of young people disagree with you. It's funny. Anecdotally and based on polling data, 18-35 year olds love Sanders and find him really charismatic while folks over 35 just don't. There's a "parents don't understand" element here, sure, but it seems ridiculous to say the guy has no charisma.

Here are findings from a national poll last July conducted by Harvard of 18-29 year olds:

Interviews of likely Democratic presidential primary voters were conducted between March 8 and March 20, 2019 and the margin of error for this portion of the sample (n=934) was +/- 4.5% with a 95% confidence interval. The full poll of all 18 to 29-year-olds includes more than 3,000 interviews and will be released later this month.
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At the link, you can find comparative data from 2007 and 2015 iterations of the surveys. There's also been a lot of discussions on this thread of by-age voting preferences that support this point, so I'm not going to rehash them.
 
Your post suggests that people who support Bernie thinks he has charisma and those who don't don't think he has charisma. If someone has charisma, even people who aren't his supporters should think he has charisma. I don't think anyone here would disagree that Trump has charisma, even those of us who don't like him.

One thing that really worries me is that the most charismatic candidate tends to win and none of the Dems project as charismatic except to their supporters.
 
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Strickland33 said:
A lot of young people disagree with you. It's funny. Anecdotally and based on polling data, 18-35 year olds love Sanders and find him really charismatic while folks over 35 just don't. There's a "parents don't understand" element here, sure, but it seems ridiculous to say the guy has no charisma.

Here are findings from a national poll last July conducted by Harvard of 18-29 year olds:



At the link, you can find comparative data from 2007 and 2015 iterations of the surveys. There's also been a lot of discussions on this thread of by-age voting preferences that support this point, so I'm not going to rehash them.
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I don't think it is worth delving into the semantics of whether Sanders' strong support among younger voters is due to charisma, policy, some combination, or whatever. He clearly has strong support among younger (hopefully) voters. I just don't find him charismatic at all.

I will confess that I am an unrepentant ageist at this point, so maybe the fact that he is so old is the reason his charm is lost on me (as is Biden's, for that matter).
 
DeaconSig said:
I don't think it is worth delving into the semantics of whether Sanders' strong support among younger voters is due to charisma, policy, some combination, or whatever. He clearly has strong support among younger (hopefully) voters. I just don't find him charismatic at all.

I will confess that I am an unrepentant ageist at this point, so maybe the fact that he is so old is the reason his charm is lost on me (as is Biden's, for that matter).
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Well the poll Strick posted suggests that his support among younger voters is pretty much name recognition. Recent candidate, recent VP, high profile 2018 candidate were the top 3 choices.
 
Oh, okay. So, we're going to argue over definitions again. Look, ignore who the youth find appealing at your own risk (OGB posters and DNC). We can debate the "true" nature of charisma all day long, but there's a reason why young people gravitate to Sanders and a lot of other candidates haven't caught on.
 
I don’t really care about charisma. In organizing trainings, they discuss being wary of the “charismatic leader” who offers nothing but fancy words. Those people are usually career opportunists.
 
At least Sig is honest about it...

Ph, how do you explain the results from 2015, then? C'mon, man. You're reaching.
 
MHBDemon said:
I don’t really care about charisma. In organizing trainings, they discuss being wary of the “charismatic leader” who offers nothing but fancy words. Those people are usually career opportunists.
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They also usually win the Presidential elections.
 
Strickland33 said:
A lot of young people disagree with you. It's funny. Anecdotally and based on polling data, 18-35 year olds love Sanders and find him really charismatic while folks over 35 just don't. There's a "parents don't understand" element here, sure, but it seems ridiculous to say the guy has no charisma.

Here are findings from a national poll last July conducted by Harvard of 18-29 year olds:



At the link, you can find comparative data from 2007 and 2015 iterations of the surveys. There's also been a lot of discussions on this thread of by-age voting preferences that support this point, so I'm not going to rehash them.
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I don't see anything about charisma in that poll. Where does it say that 18-35 year olds find Bernie really charismatic?

I'm responding late like an old. I guess that makes me charismatic.
 
Strickland33 said:
At least Sig is honest about it...

Ph, how do you explain the results from 2015, then? C'mon, man. You're reaching.
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These findings? He was running against Hillary. Same thing I've been saying about his popularity since 2015. Go back and find my posts on it. Having the stones to take on Hillary was huge for him. Same as Obama eight years prior.

  • In the Harvard IOP Spring 2015 survey (among likely voters ages 18-29) of the still forming Democratic primary field, we found Hillary Clinton (53%) with a sizable lead over potential candidates Joe Biden (10%), Elizabeth Warren (8%), Bernie Sanders (2%), Martin O’Malley (2%), and Jim Webb (1%), with 24% undecided.
  • By the December 2015 poll release, the race had shifted significantly. Bernie Sanders held a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton, 44 percent to 41 percent, with 14 percent undecided. In the spring 2016 release, Sanders’ favorable rating among all Democrats was 77 percent, his unfavorable 12 percent (6:1 ratio). In the same poll, Clinton’s favorable rating among Democrats was 65 percent, with her unfavorables at 30 percent (2:1 ratio).
 
Do you have any polling about charisma? You seem to be defining charisma as who young voters like.
 
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