• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

I watched this Crooked Media video this afternoon with a guy from the Doug Jones campaign. He made a rather bold comparison (starting at 4:45) saying this election reminded him of 1980 with a weak incumbent and old challenger that's close going into the first debate. He explained that voters were just looking for Reagan to counter the Carter narrative that Reagan was too old and too far to the right (he was and he was), but Reagan's performance addressed those concerns and let to a big swing for Republicans even in tight Senate races.


After tonight, that's possible. Again, it's only 5 weeks until Election Day. People are already voting. The next President debate is two weeks from Thursday. I don't think there is enough time for Trump to make up for this. Coronavirus is going to get worse with states trying to open up before the election. The scandals are going to get worse and the GOP is going to look bad pushing through Barrett while all this is going on.

Now obviously, Biden isn't going to win 49 states like Reagan did because we are in a different era. But the latest Cook Political Report moved Iowa and Ohio to toss ups.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...ollege-rating-changes-ohio-and-iowa-move-toss

If Biden only wins the states that Lean Democrat, he gets to 290. A 1980 scenario would have him win those plus the toss ups (FL, GA, IA, OH, ME2, NC) and the only state that Leans Republican, Texas. That would get him to 355.

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-09/EC Ratings.092920.2.pdf?

Such a scenario would flip 10 GOP Senate seats and hold AL.
https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings

Not likely, but it's worth watching how the Trump campaign handles this.
 
I’m not sure how anyone in the fence about voting for trump or Biden could come away from tonight voting Trump. Biden should win this walking away, all he needs is for leftists to vote. I think that’s the only wild card left.
 
PhDeac said:
I watched this Crooked Media video this afternoon with a guy from the Doug Jones campaign. He made a rather bold comparison (starting at 4:45) saying this election reminded him of 1980 with a weak incumbent and old challenger that's close going into the first debate. He explained that voters were just looking for Reagan to counter the Carter narrative that Reagan was too old and too far to the right (he was and he was), but Reagan's performance addressed those concerns and let to a big swing for Republicans even in tight Senate races.


After tonight, that's possible. Again, it's only 5 weeks until Election Day. People are already voting. The next President debate is two weeks from Thursday. I don't think there is enough time for Trump to make up for this. Coronavirus is going to get worse with states trying to open up before the election. The scandals are going to get worse and the GOP is going to look bad pushing through Barrett while all this is going on.

Now obviously, Biden isn't going to win 49 states like Reagan did because we are in a different era. But the latest Cook Political Report moved Iowa and Ohio to toss ups.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...ollege-rating-changes-ohio-and-iowa-move-toss

If Biden only wins the states that Lean Democrat, he gets to 290. A 1980 scenario would have him win those plus the toss ups (FL, GA, IA, OH, ME2, NC) and the only state that Leans Republican, Texas. That would get him to 355.

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-09/EC Ratings.092920.2.pdf?

Such a scenario would flip 10 GOP Senate seats and hold AL.
https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings

Not likely, but it's worth watching how the Trump campaign handles this.
Click to expand...


Ronald Reagan completely destroyed Jimmy Carter in that debate.

Donald Trump destroyed himself in this one.

Biden held his own, but the real story here was Trump's behavior and insane answers when it came to white supremacy and ballots. The only comparative debate I can imagine in terms of a candidate defeating himself, and for very different reasons, was the completely milk toast performance of Michael Dukakis vs. George Bush. You were left with the very clear impression that Michael Dukakis could not run fast enough away from himself. Trump has done the same tonight via acting like an overbearing asshole.
 
Yeah. One of the narratives coming into this debate is that the incumbent struggles in the first debate. Last time, Obama came out of the gates slow and Romney took advantage. But a strong incumbent can come back from that. Trump wasn’t slow or struggling with a challenge. He was just Trump on the biggest stage of his presidency.
 
DeacMan said:
Any of you who were still worried about the outcome of the election should rest easy after this evening. That was, without question, the worst debate performance in the history of American Presidential politics. Donald Trump is running Biden's campaign brilliantly.
Click to expand...

Worst performance since Trump’s last debates before he *checks notes* won a presidential election. Some of y’all predicting some landslide have Stockholm syndrome with the American voters. It shouldn’t have been remotely close 4 years ago.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
Worst performance since Trump’s last debates before he *checks notes* won a presidential election. Some of y’all predicting some landslide have Stockholm syndrome with the American voters. It shouldn’t have been remotely close 4 years ago.
Click to expand...

Yeah, one of those undecided voters said that Trump not denouncing white supremacists was the worst moment of the night when doing so would be “so easy” and said “I didn’t think he was some really big racist, but now I don’t know” . . . Yet remains undecided.
 
Trump feels he got bullied because he couldn't answer those real gotcha questions like "Do you disavow white supremacy?" and "Will you accept the results of the election?"
 
I'll believe Biden wins in a landslide when I see him being inaugurated on January 20, 2021

until then, I will be very concerned

 
Just like to report that I’m too exhausted this morning to indoctrinate my students to hate America.
 
thatguy2016 said:
I'll believe Biden wins in a landslide when I see him being inaugurated on January 20, 2021

until then, I will be very concerned

Click to expand...

Explain this one to me: If you're the guy that is behind in every poll throughout the nation and now in the debate polling how do you say "the only way I can not be re-elected is if the election results are rigged" - even for him that doesn't make any sense
 
thatguy2016 said:
I'll believe Biden wins in a landslide when I see him being inaugurated on January 20, 2021

until then, I will be very concerned

Click to expand...

Eh, those debate numbers don't mean much. Biden will never get much higher than that and Trump will never get lower.
 
DeacDude said:
Explain this one to me: If you're the guy that is behind in every poll throughout the nation and now in the debate polling how do you say "the only way I can not be re-elected is if the election results are rigged" - even for him that doesn't make any sense
Click to expand...

If you're ahead on election night in PA and OH based on in-person voting, and in danger of losing those states because the mail-in ballots will favor Biden, then by planting the seed (and fertilizing and watering diligently) that the election will be rigged, you can aggressively challenge every signature on every mail-in ballot and look to your court appointees to support you.

I don't believe there is a high probability of this succeeding, but the probability is >0
 
I only watched the last 30 minutes, but it was fucking exhausting.

I'm sure that somebody like Warren or Sanders may have done marginally better (as birdman touched on, I think Biden's speech impediment made it more difficult for him to respond to some of the rapid-fire bullshit spewed by the President), but I'm not sure how much better anyone can do in a format where the other debater never shuts the fuck up.

I think Wallace and Biden were in the same spot; without the ability to backhand the President and tell him to shut his fucking mouth, I have no idea what else you can do in that situation.

Did Biden probably miss a couple lay-ups? Yes. But he also didn't go full screaming banshee, which probably would have been worse.
 
Went to the Fox website today to see what they had to say - they're trying to portray it as a "brawl" with both sides to blame, which is pretty telling about what they think actually happened. Judging from the comments for the articles, the go-to talking point for Trumpites today is to blame Wallace - he couldn't get control of the debate, he asked tougher questions to poor Donald than to Biden, he "kept interrupting the President of the United States", etc. A few commentators even admitted that Trump's bullying looked bad. That's also pretty telling of what conservatives privately think of Trump's performance - they know it didn't look good. It didn't change any minds, but last night isn't going to help improve Trump's ratings in the polls, and it likely made his critics only more determined to vote him out.
 
thatguy2016 said:
I'll believe Biden wins in a landslide when I see him being inaugurated on January 20, 2021

until then, I will be very concerned

Click to expand...

The difference here is that Biden isn't a colossally awful candidate like Clinton. In 2016 there was a substantial number of people who watched the debates and said, "Yeah, Clinton won. I will still never vote for her." I don't think we're going to see the same effect with Biden.
 
Whole thing was exhausting.

Trump talking about judges does not resonate. Most regular folks also don't know what Trump is talking about with "under-leveraged" and "Burisma Holdings" or why that is important, or untrue.

Biden won the first debate, since he mainly did not stumble all over himself, as some expected. He was well coached, unlike Trump, who interrupted so often, it was unwatchable. Deacspop calling them both "boobs" is about right, but the interruptions (mostly Trump) made for bad TV.

Chris Wallace was exasperated, and lost control early.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top