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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

Why vote both sides am I right

 
You’re not reading it correctly. There are three major differences between now and four years ago.

First, the 2016 polling had an ebb and flow. The race would tighten then Hillary would get a lead then it would tighten. The race was tightening in the last polls about a week before Election Day. 2020 polling is remarkably consistent.

Second, there were a lot of undecideds in 2016 and third party candidates were relatively popular. That’s not the case in 2020. The state polls three weeks out weren’t far off from Hillary’s actual percentage. She was leading with 46-47% of the vote. She lost with 46-47%. All the undecideds swung for Trump. Biden is leading polls with over 50% of the vote.

Third, pollsters figured out that they didn’t account for education in 2016. Education hadn’t been a major predictor like gender or race. 2018 and 2020 polls did account for education. 2018 polls were fairly accurate but didn’t quite account for the full blue wave. 2020 will likely be more accurate.
 
The other difference from 2016 to consider is how responses are being weighted in the polling models. Generally speaking, most models are going to weight responses based on how likely someone is to vote based on the voting histories of the demographic groups they fall into. Historically, right leaning people are more likely to vote than those who lean left and this is accounted for in figuring out the pool of "likely" voters. Where the polls went a little off the rails in states like MI, WI, and PA in 2016 is that the lack of enthusiasm for Clinton and the Republican fervor for Trump wasn't completely baked into figuring out who the likely voters would be. In essence, they overestimated likely D voters and underestimated likely R voters. This has been shown in how many first time voters cast ballots for Trump, especially in these states. There's also the matter of polling lag and the absolute tailspin of the Clinton campaign in these states leading up to election day.

I think that this effect might still exist in the polling methodology in a way that actually underestimates support for Biden. Polling methodology is going to weight responses from liberals, young people, etc. in a way that reflects their lower likelihood of voting. Since the only Republican policy position that can be clearly articulated is to own the libs, there's a good chance that they've pissed off enough people into action and that the polls are suppressing this reality.
 
To be fair, professor is not reading that article wrong, but the author of the article is not reading the polls correctly. There are some worrisome issues, like why hasn't Biden pulled away in States like Wisconsin like he has nationally. But two big issues that the author misses, or doesn't account for, are the favorable vs negative perceptions of the candidates have dramatically changed in 2020 vs 2016 and this time around Trump is a known quantity, so the uncertainty in these polling estimates should be much smaller.
 
Game over dude! It's another "BUT HIS EMAILS" dagger.

 
odd that this thing which has been known for a year or something was not in the BOMBSHELL Ron Johnson report
 
Holy shit! The Vice-President of the United States met a wealthy person from another country!
 
the ny post pics of hunter make him look extremely cool
 
You all laugh, but I’m far too cynical of the American electorate to thing this might not move the needle. Almost 63 million people voted for Donald Trump to be president for Christ’s sake. Even if he had lost, that exceeding embarrassing. We are a nation of fucking morons.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
You all laugh, but I’m far too cynical of the American electorate to thing this might not move the needle. Almost 63 million people voted for Donald Trump to be president for Christ’s sake. Even if he had lost, that exceeding embarrassing. We are a nation of fucking morons.
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how many people who are swayed by BURISMA ! aren't already voting for Trump?
 
The blockbuster correspondence — which flies in the face of Joe Biden’s claim that he’s “never spoken to my son about his overseas business dealings” — is contained in a massive trove of data recovered from a laptop computer.

The computer was dropped off at a repair shop in Biden’s home state of Delaware in April 2019, according to the store’s owner.

Other material extracted from the computer includes a raunchy, 12-minute video that appears to show Hunter, who’s admitted struggling with addiction problems, smoking crack while engaged in a sex act with an unidentified woman, as well as numerous other sexually explicit images.

The customer who brought in the water-damaged MacBook Pro for repair never paid for the service or retrieved it or a hard drive on which its contents were stored, according to the shop owner, who said he tried repeatedly to contact the client.

The shop owner couldn’t positively identify the customer as Hunter Biden, but said the laptop bore a sticker from the Beau Biden Foundation, named after Hunter’s late brother and former Delaware attorney general.

Photos of a Delaware federal subpoena given to The Post show that both the computer and hard drive were seized by the FBI in December, after the shop’s owner says he alerted the feds to their existence.
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eating-popcorn-vjrw8ql8yz.gif
 
The risotto recipes were fantastic. Fingers crossed that if these e-mails come to light, I can finally perfect my sourdough.
 
It's a desperation Hail Mary in what amounts to the National Enquirer from a campaign that is going to cheat to win anyway. And Maggie Haberman is retweeting select quotes without comment or context. Shame on her.
 
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