2021-22 Men's College Basketball Season - UNC v. Kansas for the Natty
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DeacdeTejas
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Edey is a very big dude
wsc8521s
Rusty Larue
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That doesn't completely invalidate that KP take because Auburn had wayyyyyyy more Q1 wins than Miami.
If anything it shows Auburn was overseeded (albeit slightly) as a #2 seed, since their KP rank was 12th
Dali Llama
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Purdue always has great bigs.
Absolutely. Pretty good day so far, as two of my favorite coaches in Larranaga and Wright move on to the regionals, and all-world scumbag and should-be
NCAA pariah Bruce Pearl coaches a 2 seed into the trash bin of history.
Yes but if you are going to claim victory, when a team that you would not put in the Tourney makes the sweet 16 you've got to own that as well.
If there is a flaw in KenPom, beating 'ville by 20 or 30 shouldn't matter much. Miami mostly won it's games by 10 or less. The metric people can explain why blowing someone out by an extra 10 points should matter, but it does.
If there is a flaw in KenPom, beating 'ville by 20 or 30 shouldn't matter much. Miami mostly won it's games by 10 or less. The metric people can explain why blowing someone out by an extra 10 points should matter, but it does.
Strickland33
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You should email him !
wsc8521s
Rusty Larue
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Nah bro. Every possession is a data point. If Vegas is basically willing to copy Kenpom for its lines there aren't such glaring holes in it.
Miami only had one 10+ point loss in conference play so it's not like margin of victory in their ACC games is why they are where they are. The real reason is they were bad early on and that significantly weighed down their ranking.
Same goes for St. Peter's who has been mostly excellent after their first 10 games. Teams do get better
JuiceCrewAllStar
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does Chris Beard have any kids?
I know I don't have the chops to debate him in metrics, but he can't have it both ways. I looked at Miami's schedule and I can't see why they should be in the 60's.
Since this is all math, in theory, he could probably breakdown his ratings by every game (i.e. at the end of the season you lost x points because of this game and up x points because of this game).
myDeaconmyhand
First man to get a team of horses up Bear Mountain
2021-22 Men's College Basketball Season - Tournament Time: NCAA, NIT, CBI amd TBC
Peaking and momentum are absolutely factors in how teams perform in the NCAA tournament - performance in most recent games should be weighed more heavily in analytics. In the past the selection committee used to focus on the last 10 games of every team - I think they should return to that. Kentucky is a good example of that - they peaked in late January, faded in February, and collapsed in March.
Peaking and momentum are absolutely factors in how teams perform in the NCAA tournament - performance in most recent games should be weighed more heavily in analytics. In the past the selection committee used to focus on the last 10 games of every team - I think they should return to that. Kentucky is a good example of that - they peaked in late January, faded in February, and collapsed in March.
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Re: Miami. They’re up to 42 after tonight. 55 going in to tonight. They were bad their first 7 games. Fell to #104 after getting annihilated by Dayton and Alabama. And have been grinding higher since. The ACC being bad meant winning by a few points against the bottom half wasn’t enough to move them higher. If they were top 30, in theory they should have won by more.
His broader point about Houston today wasn’t that they won. It was that a) it wasn’t an upset even though they were the 5 seed; and 2) the seeding was dumb and there has to be a smarter way to seed teams when it’s obvious to Vegas and whoever else that a lower seed should be the favorite in a game if the goal is actually about putting the “best” teams into the top seeds, as they say it is, and not the “most deserving”.
I studied the metrics and the progression of them some during the year and came to a few conclusions. 1) an aggregate of the different metric systems does better than any individual one. And 2) NET is more about quality (I.e. Kenpom) than Resume (strength of record). Al the outliers (VT, Mississippi St, Utah St, Washington St) had very different SoR and Kenpom and I think weighting strength of record a bit higher would get NET rankings to a place that makes more sense.
I mean, really look at Miami's schedule, they lost to UCF (104 end of season rating), Dayton (bubble team) and blow out to @ Alabama, two home losses and a blow out. Their SOS was 148 vs ours 358.
ETA: They lost at home to Dayton by 16. Bad but annihilation is a bit much.
ETA: They lost at home to Dayton by 16. Bad but annihilation is a bit much.
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wsc8521s
Rusty Larue
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Yeah I don't disagree. Committee at least drew somewhat of a line in the sand with Xavier that it matters to some degree, especially since they weren't even one of the first four out
Our Kenpom says we were a tourney team at the end of they year. We're currently #32 it's what Vegas relies on. The NET is ass and quadrants are dumb.