2022 Atlanta Braves Season Thread: off season decisions loom

[deacon14]

But I also think the ending to last night's game is a way bigger deal to fans of both sides than it is to the players. Braves players know they are up 2-0 and can forget about it, Dodgers players will play with the same urgency down 0-2 having lost game 2 8-3 or 8-7. By the end of the first inning today nobody will be thinking about last night anymore.

 

[ProbationDeac]

But I also think the ending to last night's game is a way bigger deal to fans of both sides than it is to the players. Braves players know they are up 2-0 and can forget about it, Dodgers players will play with the same urgency down 0-2 having lost game 2 8-3 or 8-7. By the end of the first inning today nobody will be thinking about last night anymore.

To follow along with that point, did anyone else catch Dave O'Brien's "question" to Melancon in the postgame? Reading about it doesn't do it justice...and I generally like Dave's coverage of the Braves but he butchered it.

Skip to 1:59 for the question.

 

[saltydeac]

So for game 4 does Snit have someone in bullpen that has been a previous starter/middle reliever that he tries to get 3-4 innings to start game or do you start out of the gate just planning on a pitcher per inning or 2? And if Braves can pull out a game 3 or 4 do you do the same strategy for game 5 knowing you give your top 2 pitchers an extra day of rest and possibly better chance to close it out with a fully rested Fried and Anderson?

 

[Turd Ferguson]

But I also think the ending to last night's game is a way bigger deal to fans of both sides than it is to the players. Braves players know they are up 2-0 and can forget about it, Dodgers players will play with the same urgency down 0-2 having lost game 2 8-3 or 8-7. By the end of the first inning today nobody will be thinking about last night anymore.

I'm just not so sure it's that easy. Braves pitching has performed way above their heads this postseason. They were bound to come back to earth at some point, but it will be interesting to see how they bounce back after last night. As you said, the good news is even with the implosion we are still up 2-0.

Most of this would have been avoided if Albies makes the play, but a bump in the road on pitching was bound to happen. Maybe it was good that it happened with a big lead and didn't result in a loss. I'm going to go back and rewatch Ozzie's error later today. I was watching on my phone last night, but real time it looked like he psyched himself out. He misplayed it, and tried to "remain calm" and take his time picking up the ball and make a good throw rather than rush and boot it. And time just got away from him.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Re: Albies error

This may have been discussed earlier on the thread, but just rewatched a couple of times. It is a really tough error. The ball bounced off the mound and when it did Albies had to move to his left (the shift was on and that is a tough adjustment for a second baseman) and the ball had a crazy amount of side spin from hitting the side of the mound. The ball took a big hop and was almost waist level on Albies when he fielded it. He did the right thing and basically played the ball like a catcher keeping it in front of him. Looked like he knew he wasn't going to be able to glove it securely and was just taking his time to pick up the ball and make a clean throw. Unfortunately he tried to sneak a peak over at first before securing the ball and bobbled it. If he had picked it up cleanly he would have gotten the out. None of it was lackluster or lacking urgency. I suppose you have to charge an error there but after watching it numerous times there was nothing routine about it, and you could make an argument with a ball coming off the mound like this one did not charging an error.

 

[deacon14]

Re: Albies error

This may have been discussed earlier on the thread, but just rewatched a couple of times. It is a really tough error. The ball bounced off the mound and when it did Albies had to move to his left (the shift was on and that is a tough adjustment for a second baseman) and the ball had a crazy amount of side spin from hitting the side of the mound. The ball took a big hop and was almost waste level on Albies when he fielded it. He did the right thing and basically played the ball like a catcher keeping it in front of him. Looked like he knew he wasn't going to be able to glove it securely and was just taking his time to pick up the ball and make a clean throw. Unfortunately he tried to sneak a peak over at first before securing the ball and bobbled it. If he had picked it up cleanly he would have gotten the out. None of it was lackluster or lacking urgency. I suppose you have to charge an error there but after watching it numerous times there was nothing routine about it, and you could make an argument with a ball coming off the mound like this one did not charging an error.

Reading this got me to go watch it again. You're right that I was too harsh saying Ozzie lacked urgency there, I was basing that off only seeing the play once in real time. I still think Ozzie would expect a lot better of himself there, that's a play he makes cleanly way more often than not. No need to dwell on it though, errors happen.

 

[deacon14]

To follow along with that point, did anyone else catch Dave O'Brien's "question" to Melancon in the postgame? Reading about it doesn't do it justice...and I generally like Dave's coverage of the Braves but he butchered it.

Skip to 1:59 for the question.

This was great, what a stupid question. Asking about a blown lead that didn't even happen. The premise of the question wasn't that bad ("What do you take away from the game getting that close in the end?"), but the phrasing was terrible

 

[tigerswood]

Ozzie also misplayed a hot shot earlier in the game hit right at him that could have been ruled an error, but I thought it was correctly ruled a hit.

 

[DeaconCav06]

I feel like on a ground rule double if the guy is more than halfway to 3rd we can just go ahead and score the run.

 

[deacon14]

So for game 4 does Snit have someone in bullpen that has been a previous starter/middle reliever that he tries to get 3-4 innings to start game or do you start out of the gate just planning on a pitcher per inning or 2? And if Braves can pull out a game 3 or 4 do you do the same strategy for game 5 knowing you give your top 2 pitchers an extra day of rest and possibly better chance to close it out with a fully rested Fried and Anderson?

Game 4 will presumably be Wilson starting and going as far as he can go (probably won't get a third time through the order), and game 5 will probably be Ynoa starting and hoping to get 3 innings from him before turning it over to Matzek and the other middle inning BP guys.

 

[KennyRogersRoast]

The Dodgers offense was likely to start scoring more runs regardless of what happened in the 9th inning yesterday. It is a good offense and the quality of pitching the Braves can offer the next few games is not as high.

 

[deacon14]

I feel like on a ground rule double if the guy is more than halfway to 3rd we can just go ahead and score the run.

Meh, that's the type of rule in sports that I'd prefer to just be objective as possible. Letting the ump decide if a player was likely to score on a double that stayed in the park just gives room for even more controversy. This is an old-ish article, but from the 5 1/2 year sample it took: "Runners scored from first on doubles hit to left around 40 percent of the time, to center around 55 percent and right around 35 percent." With those numbers in mind I think a cut and dry rule that ground rule doubles get you from first to third only is fine.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2...hite-sox-adam-dunn-score-from-first-on-double

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Meh, that's the type of rule in sports that I'd prefer to just be objective as possible. Letting the ump decide if a player was likely to score on a double that stayed in the park just gives room for even more controversy. This is an old-ish article, but from the 5 1/2 year sample it took: "Runners scored from first on doubles hit to left around 40 percent of the time, to center around 55 percent and right around 35 percent." With those numbers in mind I think a cut and dry rule that ground rule doubles get you from first to third only is fine.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2...hite-sox-adam-dunn-score-from-first-on-double

Could not agree more. Baseball rules are written to be as objectively applied as possible and there are only a few rare times when an umpire has to make a somewhat subjective decision. (Usually comes up with things like interference, intentional or not, and obstruction...where would the runner have made it if not for the obstruction...and those tend to always end up in arguments and controversy.)

Having said that, one of the most fundamental judgment calls in baseball is completely subjective: check swings. The rule just says something to the effect of "in the judgment of the umpire the batter attempted to strike at the pitch." While there are some guidelines umpires use generally, there is nothing in a rule book that clarifies what a swing attempt is...just the judgment of the umpire. So what happens...a lot of ejections.

 

[tigerswood]

In one of the early innings last night, Muncy (I think) check swung on a 3-2 count and thought he was toast. Started walking back to the dugout briefly, before the ump ruled he didn't go. Was very odd.

 

[saltydeac]

Game 4 will presumably be Wilson starting and going as far as he can go (probably won't get a third time through the order), and game 5 will probably be Ynoa starting and hoping to get 3 innings from him before turning it over to Matzek and the other middle inning BP guys.

Forgot about Bryse and makes sense since he isn't part of normal mid/late relief and has started before. Interesting thought on Ynoa and would be great to get some innings out of him.

Hoping Kyle stays on his hot streak. Biggest diff in this series is Dodger's loss of home field which I think is huge and why 2-0 Bravos. Urias has a 4+ ERA on the road so I love our chances for 3-0.

 

[ChrisL68]

There is no such thing as a deflating win in the National League Championship Series. Might go man that was close hell yeah we're up 2-0

 

[DeacsOrDie]

This was great, what a stupid question. Asking about a blown lead that didn't even happen. The premise of the question wasn't that bad ("What do you take away from the game getting that close in the end?"), but the phrasing was terrible

DOB is a dunce.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

In one of the early innings last night, Muncy (I think) check swung on a 3-2 count and thought he was toast. Started walking back to the dugout briefly, before the ump ruled he didn't go. Was very odd.

It's one of the toughest calls. And it's weird that there is this overwhelming assumption that the 1st/3rd base umps have the best view. They are not looking perpendicular but at a 45 degree angle form 110 ft away. Most guys are now using the barrel of the bat past the front hip guideline. Muncy clearly swung by that definition but they showed the view from down the third base line and the barrel didn't look past the front hip. Guess who has the best view there...the dugouts. Which is why these calls always explode.

Having been on all sides I think the plate umpire has the best view, even better than the umps on the line. The only problem is on close pitches you have to be focused on the ball and not get a very good look at the bat. If the ball is in the dirt you can pretty easily see where the barrel of the bat is in relation to the front hip from the plate.

 

[DrG41]

Reading this got me to go watch it again. You're right that I was too harsh saying Ozzie lacked urgency there, I was basing that off only seeing the play once in real time. I still think Ozzie would expect a lot better of himself there, that's a play he makes cleanly way more often than not. No need to dwell on it though, errors happen.

Still had a flashback to Jerry Royster.

 

[YoungBuck95]

Johan at 3B, Austin in LF, Nick to the bench tonight. Need Wright to be more efficient tonight, no 30 pitch first innings.