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2022 Atlanta Braves Season Thread: off season decisions loom

Pilchard said:
Didn't realize how soft the Phillies remaining schedule was:

44 games left:

7 against the D'backs
6 against the Marlins
4 against the Rockies (in Philly; the Rockies are horrendous on the road)
4 against the Pirates
3 against the Orioles
3 against the Nats
3 against the Cubs


30 games against teams that are essentially trying to tank. Phillies can play like garbage and still win 20+ of those games.


They have 61 wins now. Hard to see the Phillies not getting to 87 wins with that schedule.
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If the Phillies win out they get to 85 wins. Here is how they did against the teams you highlighted.

7 against the D'backs 3-4
6 against the Marlins 1-2 (3 remaining)
4 against the Rockies 1-3 (turns out you would rather have played the Padres than Rox in September)
4 against the Pirates 3-1
3 against the Orioles 2-1
3 against the Nats 3-0
3 against the Cubs 2-1


15 wins total with a chance to get to 18 out of those 30 games. I am not sure if they played like garbage overall, but the 3-4 against Arizona has to sting.
 
Phillies stumbled and bumbled against teams that were either tanking (the Orioles and D'Back's are fighting it out for the overall #1 pick in the 2022 draft, and the Phillies went 5-5 against them), or traded away their best players and used either AAAA players or guys not ready yet for MLB baseball. Even so, with one week ago, the Phillies were 1.5 games back of the Braves, playing the lowly Pirates, and the Braves were playing in SD, and had to complete a game against the Padres, which they were already losing. After the Braves lost that completion game, they looked in trouble, but they fought back from multi-run deficits in San Diego (helped by some beneficial ball/strike calls), and the Phillies bats went into the tank. The Phillies have scored a total of three runs over the last three games, starting with a shutout loss to the Pirates last Sunday. Bryce came up small when the Phillies needed him most. MVP's don't collapse with a week left in the middle of pennant race.

FWIW, the Phillies' future is bleak. They don't have an infusion of young talent coming. The Braves get Acuna back next year, and at some point, you would think the Braves will get through a season with a healthy rotation. Mets had a ton of injuries this year, and it's obvious that Steve Cohen will outspend everyone. The Marlins are loaded with young talent, and the Nats are trying a quick re-build. Doubt Wheeler will have another season this good, and Nola may have had his best years. Sell the Phillies...
 
Freddie (extension has to happen soon) and Charlie will be expensive, but Braves should have some $$$ to spend next year with Smyly, Ozuna, and (likely) Joc coming off the books. Wonder if they'll try to extend Riley as well? Do you go after another OF power bat or top end SP?
 
Definitely pitching. I can't see a world in which they lose Freddie or Riley. Acuna returns, keep Duvall. Albies, Dansby, D'Around return. Starting pitcher and more relief pitching will be the focus I assume. Absolutely have to get another ace behind Charlie/Fried.
 
DCDeac said:
Definitely pitching. I can't see a world in which they lose Freddie or Riley. Acuna returns, keep Duvall. Albies, Dansby, D'Around return. Starting pitcher and more relief pitching will be the focus I assume. Absolutely have to get another ace behind Charlie/Fried.
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Morton/Fried/Soroka/Anderson/Ynoa is a pretty damn strong rotation, but tough to assume Soroka will ever be back to his old self, unfortunately.
 
I would like to see a Dansby deal too. I think the Braves are going to have to eat a lot of Ozuna's contract.

It seems like the Phillies have been TERRIBLE defensively for the better part of a decade.
 
Can't see Soroka having an impact next year. Ynoa and Anderson are fine as the 4th and 5th starter. But Soroka is exactly who they need to replace.
 
Braves clinch it easily and can rest guys and set up rotation for playoffs.
 
Pilchard said:
Phillies stumbled and bumbled against teams that were either tanking (the Orioles and D'Back's are fighting it out for the overall #1 pick in the 2022 draft, and the Phillies went 5-5 against them), or traded away their best players and used either AAAA players or guys not ready yet for MLB baseball. Even so, with one week ago, the Phillies were 1.5 games back of the Braves, playing the lowly Pirates, and the Braves were playing in SD, and had to complete a game against the Padres, which they were already losing. After the Braves lost that completion game, they looked in trouble, but they fought back from multi-run deficits in San Diego (helped by some beneficial ball/strike calls), and the Phillies bats went into the tank. The Phillies have scored a total of three runs over the last three games, starting with a shutout loss to the Pirates last Sunday. Bryce came up small when the Phillies needed him most. MVP's don't collapse with a week left in the middle of pennant race.

FWIW, the Phillies' future is bleak. They don't have an infusion of young talent coming. The Braves get Acuna back next year, and at some point, you would think the Braves will get through a season with a healthy rotation. Mets had a ton of injuries this year, and it's obvious that Steve Cohen will outspend everyone. The Marlins are loaded with young talent, and the Nats are trying a quick re-build. Doubt Wheeler will have another season this good, and Nola may have had his best years. Sell the Phillies...
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I’d love to hear more about the Nats quick rebuild. I see lots of bad contracts with little help on the way. I don’t see a contender before Soto hits FA.
 
WilmingtonDeac said:
Glad to see the top of the rotation step up when we most needed them. Never thought they'd win the division after losing Acuna.
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Same. I also didn't feel like the pitching (starting or bullpen) would get it together when they were struggling earlier in the season. Met and Phillies never pulled away and Braves finally got it going. I feel like Braves bullpen issues will hurt them in the playoffs but we'll see what happens.
 
CheesePritchard said:
I’d love to hear more about the Nats quick rebuild. I see lots of bad contracts with little help on the way. I don’t see a contender before Soto hits FA.
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You could be right. Lots of question marks.

Will say this: Soto is the best hitter in the game (the best hitter since Barry Lamar Bonds). In the Scherzer/Turner trade, the Nats got Keibert Ruiz a switch-hitting catcher who never strikes out, and will have power. Soto and Ruiz are 22 and 23 respectively and are great young offensive middle of the order building blocks. Love having a catcher that can hit in the middle of the order. Such an advantage in this day and age of MLB where most teams reflexively bat their catcher at the bottom of the lineup. FWIW, the Nats had the #1 offense in the NL from the August 15th on, and all of the key parts are young. The problem is the pitching. Strasburg has made less than 10 starts since winning the W-S MVP, and Corbin was the worst starter in MLB in 2021 (although he did finish well and still has his velo). The Nats do have a some highly rated arms coming up in their system, but to be competitive, they will need Strasburg and Corbin to pitch to 2019 levels. Probably not going to happen, but if it does, the Nats could be at least decent. Also, since the trading deadline, the bullpen has been a disaster. Bullpen are these most volatile element of any MLB team. Nats shed a ton of pay roll as the result of the sell off, and the Lerners are either the richest or 2nd richest owners in baseball. So, they have resources to build back up.
 
I agree that Soto is a superstar, but the rest of that is a very optimistic outlook on the Nats. Keibert Ruiz may very well be quite good, but he only has 87 MLB PAs thus far, so I'd pump the brakes there a bit. Out of their top ten prospects on mlb.com, only two are pitchers at or above AA, and the pitching currently on the roster is not good. They don't have any can't-miss prospects, although maybe Cade Cavalli could be a meaningful member of the pitching rotation next season.

If Soto isn't on that team, I think they are competing with the dbacks and orioles to be the worst team in baseball. They are paying Strasburg $35 million a year through 2026, Corbin ~$24 million two more years then $35 million the year after, and Soto hits Arb 2 next season. I think there's too many holes on the team and too much money tied up in Strasburg/Corbin for them to transform into a contender through FA, and the prospects aren't good enough on their own. Maybe they improve over the next few years, but they aren't going from the current ~65 win team to a ~90 win team anytime soon.
 
Will be happy to revisit the Keibert Ruiz discussion every September for the next decade. Very confident he will be a star (fwiw, he should be as the Nats traded Scherzer and Trea Turner for him). Cavalli was dominant before stumbling in AAA over the last month. He has electric stuff.

Not predicting the Nats to be NL East Champs next year; just saying there is a long-shot path to them being decent next year. Don't think this will be a Orioles-style 5 year tank. The Nats know that they have a transformational player in Soto, and will be aggressive to build around him. The wild-card is Strasburg. If he is done, the Nats are in trouble as they deeply invested in him for 5 more years.
 
Pilchard said:
Cavalli was dominant before stumbling in AAA over the last month. He has electric stuff.
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It feels like I've said this about a dozen guys in the Braves farm system over the last 5 years. Out of Anderson, Soroka, Fried, Wright, Touki, Allard, Blair, Wilson, Wentz, Newcomb, Folty, Gohara there's 12 guys that either were on top 100 prospect lists or close to it, and only 3 have turned into legit MLB starters. Maybe it works out at the MLB level, but there's also decent odds that it doesn't.

Pilchard said:
Not predicting the Nats to be NL East Champs next year; just saying there is a long-shot path to them being decent next year. Don't think this will be a Orioles-style 5 year tank. The Nats know that they have a transformational player in Soto, and will be aggressive to build around him. The wild-card is Strasburg. If he is done, the Nats are in trouble as they deeply invested in him for 5 more years.
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I agree that the Nats are trying to rebuild much faster than a 5 year tank. I'm just skeptical that it's going to work.
 
I think I would take Soto as MVP this season, but I am not yet putting him ahead of Trout as best hitter since Bonds.
 
Strider gets call. LowA to big club. A shot at postseason roster. They could use a legit RH reliever.
 
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