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2022 races (and 2021 for weird commonwealths like Virginia)

BarcaDeac said:
so does Manchin have any influence as a Dem pivotal vote anymore, if not does he go ahead and switch parties with his seat up in 24? Or does he wait until later on? what's his play?
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Manchin sees the ways the winds are shifting. He's better off trying to direct the wind rather than blocking it. It will be easier for him to establish himself as fighting for West Virginians by not voting for some bills and voting for others. He and the rest of Senate Dems have more freedom. He and Sinema should go in opposite directions. She needs to establish herself as a loyal Dem or she will get primaried in a purple state.

Republicans are dysfunctional right now. They’re not a team worth joining. The only thing to gain from switching is a last ditch effort to hold on to a seat.

Worth mentioning though that Manchin may have noticed that all the Dem senators held on to their seats in Biden’s first midterm. He's already won as a Dem in WV three times (2010, 2012, 2018). He got 60% of the vote during Obama's re-election. Does he want to risk running on Trump's ticket when he's done fine running as a Democrat?
 
Raphael Warnock won four elections in two years.
 
BarcaDeac said:
Sinema has a real threat to be primaried. Manchin's goose is probably cooked as a D up for reelection in WV in 24, but I guess does he relish more longterm power as a R or the seat at the table he currently has?
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Eh, depends on his opponent. He has defied the odds before. Has he announced he is definitely going to run in 2024? He'll be 77 in 2024, so he may decide to hang it up.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
Eh, depends on his opponent. He has defied the odds before. Has he announced he is definitely going to run in 2024? He'll be 77 in 2024, so he may decide to hang it up.
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89 year old Chuck Grassley just filed for re-election in 2028.

But I agree that it's not a given that Manchin would lose in 2024. And I doubt his ego would let him assume he would. That's for cowards like Jeff van Drew.
 
I could easily see Manchin switching parties. He would just say it was in response to the Democrats anti-coal policies, gun control, crime, blah blah blah
 
We all know Manchin just wants power so what gets him more power from now til 24 (and potentially beyond) is the question.
 
Unless you're totally bonkers, who wants to battle through a Republican primary in a state like WV? He'd probably lose to some MTG-esque kook that frames him as a radical socialist.
 
Bubble Boy said:
Unless you're totally bonkers, who wants to battle through a Republican primary in a state like WV? He'd probably lose to some MTG-esque kook that frames him as a radical socialist.
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might lose to that person in the general then. we'll see.
 
Manchin won as a Democrat in 2010, 2012, and 2018 and Gov. Justice won as a Democrat in 2016 (then switched parties in a rally with Trump who was on the other side of the ticket). So WV Democrats (at least old wealthy establishment white guys) have done pretty well where national Dems have struggled.

Knowing nothing about WV except wishing I stopped at that biscuit change when I drove through there, it makes sense for Manchin to stay Dem rather than be dragged far to the right in a Pub primary.
 
The more I think about it, the less likely I think it is that Manchin switches parties. His chances of winning the general election as a Democrat are probably greater than his chances of winning a Republican primary.

WV is a semi-closed primary state where it's up to the state parties to determine if they'll allow unaffiliated voters to vote in their respective primaries. Manchin will cruise through the D primary and it's alot easier for him to cobble together a base of WV Dems, Rs who hold their nose and vote for him because the R candidate is too hard line, and Rs who vote for him because he's their Democrat or whatever.

I don't think he can manage a potentially closed R primary given his profile as a Dem.
 
Exactly. Manchin has a lot of legitimacy as an incumbent that could potentially be squandered in a Pub primary.
 
May be an image of 1 person and text that says 'Robert Brown @truthtold8 The Warnock-Walker race results are like a Green book of places to avoid in Georgia. Athens Atlanta Sc Augusta AL Macon Savannah'
 
Everybody has to stop and pee somewhere.
 
Pretty sure there’s a Buc-ees in that red area. Would hate to miss that.
 
I've lived in one of those red counties for three years. Not the worst one, but I'm glad to be elsewhere.
 
Nearly every one of those counties south of Atlanta is 25% to 40% black.
 
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