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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

In fairness to Parker, there was no fucking way he was going to slow down Burton last night (or any night).
 
Yeah, we really need Boopie to be able to guard the smaller, shiftier guys in the league, but he's just too easy to screen. Cam can fight through the screens, but it's tough for him, or anyone, to give guys like Burton even half a step.

It also makes it particularly difficult to do when ND was first setting screens with shifty hips, then just outright moving screens by the end. They looked more like blockers than screeners.
 
Colonel Angus said:
Also it's entertaining as hell to continue to see some of the same crack ogboards.com bracketologists who claimed no NCAA tourney and season ovah back in November still opining on metrics & bracket scenarios
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This “no true Scotsman” shit is stupid, especially after losing to Notre Dame.
 
DeacDaddy said:
At some point that becomes a distinction without a difference. A lot of those very-nice-to-win games looking back are going to revert to must-wins if we don't make the tourney. It's like how Quad games don't fully settle out till the end of the season.

My point is simply that I'm hoping we operate better when people just aren't expecting us to win on the road, and maybe we can go on a run and surprise a few teams, as well as ourselves. That's pretty much all we got left.
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This! When you're on the bubble those type games can make a big difference while not being "must wins" at the time they occurred.
 
On the positive side, this does seem like a year where all you really care about is getting in the tourney and avoiding Dayton. I'd much rather be a 10 or 11 seed than an 8 or 9.
 
DCDeac said:
On the positive side, this does seem like a year where all you really care about is getting in the tourney and avoiding Dayton. I'd much rather be a 10 or 11 seed than an 8 or 9.
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Nice job turning chicken shit into chicken salad. Really hope that it works out that way.

Just a bummer that the loss removes or at least greatly reduces the margin of error.
 
Torvik's simulation has us as last four byes in the NCAAT if we finish L, W, W and 0-1 in the ACCT against any of the mid-table ACC teams.

I only see a big dropoff when getting to ND/GT/Louisville ACCT matchups if we lost, and even then it still has us with a bid, barely.

Not sure how accurate that is, but shows you how much the Duke win mattered. VT loss is not season-ending, but we will be absolutely nail biting our last two home games, and I am not sure how the team would respond. Especially if Clemson is a lighter student crowd with break.
 
I've heard so much about Torvik, is it actually proven to be pretty reliable? Like if we looked back last year and ran similar situations on teams were the predictions accurate?
 
Teams probably have a better chance at the Sweet 16 out of Dayton than with an 8 or 9 seed. Not that I want Dayton.

I think I read over 10% of Dayton at large teams have gone to the Sweet 16. That’s in line with 8 seeds and higher than 9 seeds.
 
Realize WF is perfect at home, but Clemson has won at Alabama (only home loss) and at UNC (only home loss); so, a win at VT would be very helpful.

Thinking hard about the VT game before writing it up. Man, something has gone amiss there. Since beating GT at home on January 27th, VT is 2-6, and some of the losses have been rough (at Pitt by 25, at Cuse by 13, at ND by 8), but ALL of those losses, except the Duke loss were on the road. VT's two wins were at home: an 8 point win over FSU and demolishing UVA by 33. So, VT has been as a high-variance team as you can find. Really weird, given that they have veteran guards and a good coach, but the Hokies have been inconsistent.
 
Looking back to pre season we had an early warning that playing away from home could be a problem. Believe we lost to Georgetown at their place in early November. Then we played Alabama at the Joel and won. That trend has held even though we won a close one @ BC and somehow demolished Ga. Tech in Atlanta. Have a right to wonder with VPI next.
 
Speaking of that Clemson game, it sucks to fall at the start of spring break. Will they keep the dorms open if students want to stay? I doubt many would anyway unless Mit wants to throw a wild party for them.

Wait, I know how to get students to that game. On Friday all we have to do is just say, “You’re all detained.”
 
PaddyWF said:
Torvik's simulation has us as last four byes in the NCAAT if we finish L, W, W and 0-1 in the ACCT against any of the mid-table ACC teams.

I only see a big dropoff when getting to ND/GT/Louisville ACCT matchups if we lost, and even then it still has us with a bid, barely.

Not sure how accurate that is, but shows you how much the Duke win mattered. VT loss is not season-ending, but we will be absolutely nail biting our last two home games, and I am not sure how the team would respond. Especially if Clemson is a lighter student crowd with break.
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Yeah - The Duke win is carrying a lot of water. Just ran the following and it yielded a #9 seed with an 86.5% chance of receiving a bid:

@VT - L
GT - W
Clem - W
BC in ACC Tourney - W
Clem in ACC Tourney - L

If you move @VT to a W and the Clemson home game to a L the seed remains #9 with an 83% chance of receiving a bid.

Gotta have the GT game - That's a true must win
 
DCDeac said:
On the positive side, this does seem like a year where all you really care about is getting in the tourney and avoiding Dayton. I'd much rather be a 10 or 11 seed than an 8 or 9.
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The way this year is shaping up, there’s a decent chance the only 11s that get at large bids will be sent to Dayton. The other 2 could be auto bids. All it would take is a) A-10 field over Dayton; and b) American field over FAU (assuming they still get a bid, which is getting iffier); or c) anyone projected to clearly miss the field to win one of the top 8 conferences.

So to avoid Dayton, we’d need a 10 or higher.
 
WF can absolutely make the NCAAT with a loss on Saturday. That said, WF is a woeful 2-9 on the road this season. TWO and NINE. If you want to add-in the nuetral court games, WF is 3-11 in road and nuetral games.

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Aside from the NCAAT discussion, let's play an A game on the road. This team has too much going for it to play that poorly on the road game after game.
 
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