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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

Buttermaker said:
Clemson was 4-4 in Q1 games. Pretty strong. But NET 60.
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Other than winning a home game against Penn State (in 2OT) and beating Duke (another home game), Clemson did nothing at all impressive beyond kicking NCSU's ass 3 times. They also lost @ Louisville (290), on a neutral floor against Loyola, Chicago (253), @ South Carolina (221), and @ BC (170). I don't buy the revisionist history that says they deserved a bid. But NCSU absolutely did not deserve a bid.
 
DeacsATS said:
The initial stretch of ACC games for Wake Forest will tell us a lot AND will have a huge impact on the metrics.

From 12/30 (vs. VT) to 1/16 (@ NCSU) we play 6 conference games - 3 home and 3 away.

Here's how KP & Torvik project them:

VT - KP W 74-71; Torvik W 72-71
@BC - KP W 76-75; Torvik L 73-77
Miami - KP W 79-76; Torvik W 77-76
@FSU - KP W 75-74; Torvik L 73-75
UVA - KP W 64-63; Torvik L 61-62
@NCSU - KP L 73-75; Torvik L 72-78

That's essentially 6 toss-ups in a row... Would like to win at least 4 of them, but ideally 5 or 6. But regardless of W/L, you have to think the margin of victory will be greater than 1-2 points in each game. Win a few of those convincingly and keep whatever losses we have close... Wake Forest will move up significantly in the metrics.
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If we have 6 one score games in a row to open up conference play, I may not live to see how the NET turns out.
 
Thinking we will win all 6 of those is certainly some optimism. 4-2 best case. With a big win or two mixed in.
 
deacfan123 said:
Thinking we will win all 6 of those is certainly some optimism. 4-2 best case. With a big win or two mixed in.
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Yeah, according to KP, there is like a 2.2% chance we'd win all 6 of those games... I mean, I think we're better than the metrics, but at most I'd say 5-10% chance we run the table there. 5 wins would be fantastic. 4 wins would be good.
 
Pilchard said:
JMU is a fraud. They beat Michigan State in OT in the opener when Michigan State sucked (IIRC, you questioned Wisconsin, and they pummeled Michigan State 70-58 at East Lansing early in the season) and JMU had a decent 2OT win over #103 Akron. That's it and they were fortunate to win both of those games. JMU barely beat a middling Radford team at home.

The Dukes have played nobody since and they don't play anybody for the rest of the season; their toughest game on the schedule is App State (think about that). One of JMU's best players is TJ Bickerstaff, who transferred from BC because of limited playing time; he's not a starting player on crappy ACC team, and now he is a leader on ranked team?

Before Sun Belt play starts JMU plays #361 Coppin State and #346 Morgan State. Pathetic. So, JMU will be 12-0 and will be favored its remaining 20 games except at App. Not because JMU is particularly good, but because the Sun Belt is particularly bad in basketball. So, JMU's record and ranking are fraudulent. The ACC is the lowest rated Power V conference, and JMU would be at best a .500 team in the ACC.
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Do you realize I'm just joking around with you about JMU and Joe Flacco? I mean I realize they're in a mid-major conference that does football better than basketball. But I do think they're a good team that is well coached, and Byington should be getting some high major looks before too long.

But you don't remember correctly about Wisconsin. I think they're quite good - as is evidenced by their handling MSU and their utter destruction of UVA. And I was really impressed by Zona when they destroyed Wisconsin.
 
DeacsATS said:
These guys have historical NET rankings...

https://bracketologists.com/
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Thanks! So NET goes back to 2019

From the previous 4 seasons with tournaments I have averaged the NET rankings of ACC teams that made the tournament:

(11), (20), (27), (32), (36), (45), (46),

We only have 3 teams over that time who have received bids with NET over 50, and all have occurred in the last two seasons:
2022: Notre Dame (53)[3rd], Miami (62)[4th]
2023: Pitt (67)[5th in Conference]

In that same time frame we have had 5 teams with NET below 50 not receive a tournament bid:
2019: NC State (33)[8th], Clemson (35)[9th]
2021: Duke (49)[10th!]
2022: Wake (48)[5th]
2023: UNC (46)[7th]

All of this data tells me that for Wake to be safely in the tournament, we need to finish in the top 5 of the conference regular season, and we need a NET below 45 on selection Sunday. If we only meet one of those criteria we will be on the bubble, if we don’t meet either of those criteria then we likely wont make the tournament.
 
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Notable OCC Games Remaining

Q1/Q2
Virginia vs. Memphis (Tonight)
UNC vs. Oklahoma (Wednesday)
Duke vs. Baylor (Wednesday)
Louisville vs. Kentucky (Thursday)
GT vs. UMass (Thursday)

Q3/Q4
Notre Dame vs. Citadel (Tonight)
N.C. State vs. Saint Louis (Thursday)
Notre Dame vs. Maris (Friday)
FSU vs. Winthrop (Friday)
Clemson vs. Radford (Friday)
FSU vs. Lipscomb (Dec 30)
 
PaddyWF said:
Notable OCC Games Remaining

Q1/Q2
Virginia vs. Memphis (Tonight)
UNC vs. Oklahoma (Wednesday)
Duke vs. Baylor (Wednesday)
Louisville vs. Kentucky (Thursday)
GT vs. UMass (Thursday)

Q3/Q4
Notre Dame vs. Citadel (Tonight)
N.C. State vs. Saint Louis (Thursday)
Notre Dame vs. Maris (Friday)
FSU vs. Winthrop (Friday)
Clemson vs. Radford (Friday)
FSU vs. Lipscomb (Dec 30)
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I think it’s important to note that Wake functionally doesn’t care if the ACC teams win or lose. But we do care that the ACC teams overperform and move up in the metrics.

In fact, it’s probably better for Wake that ACC teams we expect to be on the bubble and compared to Wake lose a close game than win a close game.
 
PhDeac said:
I don't understand that logic. For any of this to matter, Wake has to beat these teams. So it's better for those teams to win/overperform in these games.
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We want them to be as high in Kenpom/NET as possible. Those rating systems do not care if you win or lose a game, they care what the scoring margin of the game was.

So another ACC team losing by 1 and harming their NCAAT resume is probably better for Wake than them winning by 1 and boosting their resume. Because Kenpom will view those two outcomes very similarly
 
To add, the ACC team winning by 50 is the best outcome. I’m just comparing winning a close game vs losing one
 
deacdixieboy said:
This is my biggest issue. 31 and 75 count the same but 30 and 31 are hugely different.
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There is, in fact, a decent chance the #31 team (along with the #35 team, and the #40 team) is actually better than the #30 team.
 
scooter84 said:
The focus on the quadrants is stupid. And, any system that makes a big deal out of winning by 30 or 35 instead of 20 is stupid.
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Especially with the walk-on issue this creates. If you’re really good you should get to play your walk-ons a lot
 
DeacsATS said:
The initial stretch of ACC games for Wake Forest will tell us a lot AND will have a huge impact on the metrics.

From 12/30 (vs. VT) to 1/16 (@ NCSU) we play 6 conference games - 3 home and 3 away.

Here's how KP & Torvik project them:

VT - KP W 74-71; Torvik W 72-71
@BC - KP W 76-75; Torvik L 73-77
Miami - KP W 79-76; Torvik W 77-76
@FSU - KP W 75-74; Torvik L 73-75
UVA - KP W 64-63; Torvik L 61-62
@NCSU - KP L 73-75; Torvik L 72-78

That's essentially 6 toss-ups in a row... Would like to win at least 4 of them, but ideally 5 or 6. But regardless of W/L, you have to think the margin of victory will be greater than 1-2 points in each game. Win a few of those convincingly and keep whatever losses we have close... Wake Forest will move up significantly in the metrics.
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The Deacs need to win all six of those games. A 14-3 record, 6-0 in conference and a 12 game win streak should put the team in the Top 25. The team needs to grab the national spotlight and make people go "Damn, Wake has a team this year." The Deacs are irrelevent in college basketball on a national level. It's too easy to dismiss them if they are on the bubble. The team should have a six game win streak when conference play begins. Combine that with a win streak to start conference play to maximize the benefits. An extended winning streak makes a statement. A 15-5 conference record should do the job, but four 20 loss seasons in a recent eleven year span gives the skeptics fuel at decision day. This Demon Deacon team must remove all doubts or they will be disappointed.
 
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