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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

Morning/Afternoon folks, another episode of the Boots On The Ground Pod is in. We spend over an hour covering several topics, including the VT and BC games, and an in-depth preview of Miami for Saturday.

The Hurricanes are going to be a massive test, but we think they're one Wake Forest can pass.

Listen here:

 
improvement I need to see from Coach Forbes is not letting our team fade down the stretch and take crucial losses in late February. Even if we don’t win those Q1 away games, what we definitely can’t do is take 2-3 bad losses to end the season. We can be a consistent top 50 team even if we don’t win at Cameron or the Dean Dome.
 
deacon14 said:
This seems like a tough ask to be honest, especially if Florida doesn't play their way back into being a Q1 win for us.

The games we have left that either are currently Q1 or realistically could be are: Miami (H), UVA (H), NCST (A), UNC (A), Pitt (A), Duke (A), UVA (A), Duke (H), VT (A), Clemson (H). Of those 10 games, 2 of them are not currently Q1: Miami, UVA at home. And then games like NCST, VT, and even Clemson could all easily fall out of Q1 territory.

There's a realistic world in which we only get 6-7 more chances at a Q1 and 5-6 of them are road games. Two of those road games are at Duke and UNC. Expecting 4 wins out of all this leaves very little room for error.
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State got in last year with 1 Q1 win, 0 Q3/Q4 losses.

/=9 home wins and >/=5 road wins with no more Q3/Q4 losses should be safely in. 15 conference wins or greater is a lock. 14 is pretty safe.

Based on where we are right now, I am much more concerned about dropping a game to ND/GT/Louisville/FSU than not having enough Q1 wins. Just get to 14-6, avoid a Q3/4 team in the ACCT, and we are in good shape.
 
Finishing top 4 for the double bye is important for two reasons: top 4 in the ACC is great (even if that doesn't show up anywhere on the team sheets) and we have two rounds to avoid a Q3/Q4 team in the quarters. Although I guess at that point if we have a chance to make the semis by beating like Notre Dame...that's as good a chance as we're gonna get so....
 
The fact that Wake has nothing but ACC games left and has a Q4 game left along with at least one Q3 away game is just crazy. Every major conference is typically going to have a team or two that is bad, but for Louisville and Notre Dame to be this bad is unprecedented for the ACC and a major issue for the conference.

I mean even at their worst, the previous two Wake coaches didn't have teams that are as bad as Louisville has been this year and last.
 
There are 13 teams 100+ in KP in the top 6 conferences and the ACC has 4 of them. Vandy and Louisville are in a battle for the worst...203 v. 204.
 
deacon14 said:
The fact that Wake has nothing but ACC games left and has a Q4 game left along with at least one Q3 away game is just crazy. Every major conference is typically going to have a team or two that is bad, but for Louisville and Notre Dame to be this bad is unprecedented for the ACC and a major issue for the conference.

I mean even at their worst, the previous two Wake coaches didn't have teams that are as bad as Louisville has been this year and last.
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It would be better for there to be some kind of natural disaster so we didn’t have to play. Like a snowstorm perhaps.
 
awakegirl said:
It would be better for there to be some kind of natural disaster so we didn’t have to play. Like a snowstorm perhaps.
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I mean if they are truly as bad as they've performed thus far, it's fine to have the game on our schedule because we should crush them.

The problem is that both Louisville and ND have rosters full of players recruited to play ACC basketball. Even if those players suck most nights under their current coaches, they most likely have the talent to beat a few ACC teams that you wouldn't think they should be able to beat. Which is a lesson UVA has already learned the hard way.
 
deacon14 said:
I mean if they are truly as bad as they've performed thus far, it's fine to have the game on our schedule because we should crush them.

The problem is that both Louisville and ND have rosters full of players recruited to play ACC basketball. Even if those players suck most nights under their current coaches, they most likely have the talent to beat a few ACC teams that you wouldn't think they should be able to beat. Which is a lesson UVA has already learned the hard way.
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Right. If you lose a game at the end of the year to a team in the Q3/Q4, you don't really have anybody to blame but yourself if it puts you on the wrong side of the bubble. It sucks but yeah.
 
We really need to hold serve at home and pick up 4-5 on the road. I think @GT, @ND and @Pitt are all achievable. That would theoretically put us at 14-6 or maybe even 15-5 and I would hope get us in the dance.

Some of you guys have analyzed this far more than me so maybe not. I do know this is the most fun I've had watching Wake basketball since about 2009!
 
And if you finish 5th and leave yourself open to getting upset in the ACCT by a Q3 team trying to make a miracle run, that’s doubly true. Lock up that 4 spot and avoid a bad loss.
 
TheAbster said:
We really need to hold serve at home and pick up 4-5 on the road. I think @GT, @ND and @Pitt are all achievable. That would theoretically put us at 14-6 or maybe even 15-5 and I would hope get us in the dance.

Some of you guys have analyzed this far more than me so maybe not. I do know this is the most fun I've had watching Wake basketball since about 2009!
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Our best remaining road game chances with KP win% next to it:

1. Notre Dame 74%
2. Georgia Tech 64%
3. Florida State 61%
4. NC State 50%
5. Virginia Tech 47%
6. Pittsburgh 43%
7. Virginia 41%
8. Duke 20%
9. UNC 20%

So the expected wins from our remaining 9 away games as of right now are 4.2 (and 4.8 losses).
 
My ears ring with clanging iron sounds when I think of playing @Ga Tech. However, we've got the best jump shooting team we've had in over a decade. Also a team that has multiple guys who can finish around the rim.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Our best remaining road game chances with KP win% next to it:

1. Notre Dame 74%
2. Georgia Tech 64%
3. Florida State 61%
4. NC State 50%
5. Virginia Tech 47%
6. Pittsburgh 43%
7. Virginia 41%
8. Duke 20%
9. UNC 20%

So the expected wins from our remaining 9 away games as of right now are 4.2 (and 4.8 losses).
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The DF07 Matrix has us at
1. ND 100%
1. GT 100%
1. FSU 100%
1. state100%
1. VT 100%
1. duke 100%
1. unc 100%

#LongLiveTheEyeTest
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Finishing top 4 for the double bye is important for two reasons: top 4 in the ACC is great (even if that doesn't show up anywhere on the team sheets) and we have two rounds to avoid a Q3/Q4 team in the quarters. Although I guess at that point if we have a chance to make the semis by beating like Notre Dame...that's as good a chance as we're gonna get so....
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Yes, those reasons are important, but the double bye guarantees WF a spot in the ACC quarters...

WF has not played an ACCT quarterfinal in 18 years. 2006. Not positive, but I believe Duke has played in 18 ACCT quarters over that span. WF has played in zero. So, yes, the double bye is important because WF can't lose in the ACCT on loser Tuesday or play-in Wednesday.
 
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