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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

you just have to laugh when you see Florida has dropped to 31, and we still have just one Q1 win
 
redwing42 said:
Quads are just a shorthand notation of the schedule. They are derived from the NET, they don't affect it. They are useful for a very quick overview of a team, but some people give them way more importance than they really deserve. Also, the system is designed to be used for complete schedules, not seasons in progress, so it isn't terribly helpful to follow it day by day like everyone has decided to do
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Unfortunately, “some people” the last two years has included the members of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. Last year in particular they made it exceptionally clear that the only thing that mattered to them was Quad 1 wins. Ultimately, that is why the Lundardis of the world continue to undervalue us in spite of what the metrics say. Applying the standard the committee clearly used last year, we are squarely on the bubble, and it will be that way until the committee arbitrarily decides that some other data point will be emphasized to the exclusion of others.


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Looks to me like we have a good chance at the No. 3 ACC spot if we finish 13-7. 14-6 almost certainly wraps it up, and we may even pass Duke in that scenario if they stumble down the stretch. UNC is safe at 1. Tiebreakers are H2H, then common record against the best ACC team on down the standings.

I don't see Duke losing 2-3 more games, but it does setup an interesting situation if they lose to Virginia at home. They would still have at NC State and UNC at home to end the season. That is a tough final stretch. Still think they wrap up the 2 spot.

If we tie with Virginia at 13-7, they can only pass us if they beat Duke (0-0 right now) since we are 1-1 H2H and both 0-1 against North Carolina.

If we tie with Clemson at 13-7, then it just depends on the final game we have H2H with them.

If we tie with Pitt at 13-7, then I think it would come down to either Virginia/Clemson/State common record. Pitt is 1-0 against Virginia, 0-1 against Clemson with one game left at Clemson, 1-0 against State with one game left at home against them.

If we tie with State at 13-7, then it comes down to Duke record. They are 0-0 right now, play Duke at home March 4.

Hopefully I read this right. We are in pretty good position.
 
PhDeac said:
Wake is by far the highest rated team in NET and Kenpom not to get a single vote in the AP or Coaches Poll. Pretty sure that will change tomorrow, but is there any chance Wake will be ranked?
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Was wondering the same and figured we might get some votes. But maybe all the voters are scandalized by our THUG fans.
 
PhDeac said:
Wake is by far the highest rated team in NET and Kenpom not to get a single vote in the AP or Coaches Poll. Pretty sure that will change tomorrow, but is there any chance Wake will be ranked?
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Might be more advantageous to stay under the radar. Hope we repeat the Ga. Tech experience with N.D. Tuesday. Not going to be an easy out. VPI on Saturday will be another difficult test. Next Sunday if we have 20 wins I will be pleased since our last two will be @ home.
 
numbers 21, 22, 23, and 25 all lost to unranked teams yesterday

Granted Washington state (21) probably safe since they beat a top 5 team earlier in the week
 
Assuming the season plays out like KenPom predicts--

We will finish 3rd and have our double bye, playing the winner of Syracuse and Georgia Tech/Boston College. Duke will finish 2nd and play the winner of Florida State and NC St/Louisville. The winner of those respective games will play each other for the ACCCG berth. Obviously it won't play out exactly like KP says it will but I like our odds if it does.
 
spritethr said:
Assuming the season plays out like KenPom predicts--

We will finish 3rd and have our double bye, playing the winner of Syracuse and Georgia Tech/Boston College. Duke will finish 2nd and play the winner of Florida State and NC St/Louisville. The winner of those respective games will play each other for the ACCCG berth. Obviously it won't play out exactly like KP says it will but I like our odds if it does.
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If we could draw soft ass duke in the semis, that would be bizarre to have such good luck.
 
After all of the bubble concern about Wake, I think it's going to be UVA that is in trouble going into the ACC tourney.

Currently sitting at a NET of 49, KP of 66. Quads are 3-4 Q1, 3-3 Q2, with a Q3 loss. Their remaining games are at BC, at Duke, and vs GT, so unless they win in Cameron or run up the score in the other two games their resume isn't going to change much. If they lose to anyone other than Duke/UNC/Wake/Clemson in the ACC tournament, I could easily see them not getting a bid. They could also easily be in a position of needing a win against one of those four in the tournament in order to get a bid, especially if they lose to BC or GT.
 
Only chance we have of backing into another Q1 win is UF. Big fans of them the rest of the way.

UVA looks VERY unlikely to claw into the Top 30 NET, and BC would have to move from 89 to 75. BC has 4 winnable games coming up to finish the season, so it's not impossible... But unlikely.

Really need to either win @ VT or at home against Clemson. I think either of those (along with wins @ ND and against GT) would cement the Deacs into the field. And probably as a single digit seed.
 
DeacsATS said:
Really need to either win @ VT or at home against Clemson. I think either of those (along with wins @ ND and against GT) would cement the Deacs into the field. And probably as a single digit seed.
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Considering that the committee considers metrics for seeding, I sincerely doubt that Wake makes the tournament as a 11 seed and probably not even as a 10 (assuming Wake's KP stays roughly where it is now). It's an interesting spot because Wake is in a position of either missing the tournament entirely or being seeded as one of the top ~36 teams in the tournament, there really isn't much in between
 
deacon14 said:
After all of the bubble concern about Wake, I think it's going to be UVA that is in trouble going into the ACC tourney.

Currently sitting at a NET of 49, KP of 66. Quads are 3-4 Q1, 3-3 Q2, with a Q3 loss. Their remaining games are at BC, at Duke, and vs GT, so unless they win in Cameron or run up the score in the other two games their resume isn't going to change much. If they lose to anyone other than Duke/UNC/Wake/Clemson in the ACC tournament, I could easily see them not getting a bid. They could also easily be in a position of needing a win against one of those four in the tournament in order to get a bid, especially if they lose to BC or GT.
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Agreed. And Pitt could potentially slide in ahead of UVA. I doubt they both get in.
 
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