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2023 Atlanta Braves Season Thread: wheelin & dealin

All this hype about Harper getting the home runs because of "emotion" over what Arcia said is a load of bull. He got two home runs because we threw him two sliders with no slide
 
Should we be concerned about future starting pitching? Seems like it.

  • Strider - solid
  • Fried - FA, and we've seen how that goes with our big names
  • Wright - out all of 2024, who knows if he'll be the same
  • Morton - one more year, if he takes it
  • Elder - massive regression, future cloudy
  • Anderson - done in the bigs?
  • Soroka - done in the bigs?
  • Ynoa - done in the bigs?
  • Smith-Shawver - promising but who knows
  • Shuster - maybe, but who knows
  • Allard - maybe? doubtful
  • Waldrep - promising but probably a year or two away
 
tigerswood said:
Should we be concerned about future starting pitching? Seems like it.

  • Strider - solid
  • Fried - FA, and we've seen how that goes with our big names
  • Wright - out all of 2024, who knows if he'll be the same
  • Morton - one more year, if he takes it
  • Elder - massive regression, future cloudy
  • Anderson - done in the bigs?
  • Soroka - done in the bigs?
  • Ynoa - done in the bigs?
  • Smith-Shawver - promising but who knows
  • Shuster - maybe, but who knows
  • Allard - maybe? doubtful
  • Waldrep - promising but probably a year or two away
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We need to throw some money at the FA pitching market. I am similarly concerned. This includes getting some guys in the pen who can throw gas. Weirdly, I don’t really want Fried to be one of the guys we go all in on. He is constantly hurt and, aside from ‘21, has been very disappointing in the playoffs. Maybe we throw money at Nola.
 
According to MLB pipeline, the top 7 prospects in the Braves system are all RHP. Really unusual, but the lineup is set for awhile. Unfortunately, except for Smith-Shawver, none of the top 7 have an ETA before 2025.

Braves top 30 prospects
 
Pilchard said:
According to MLB pipeline, the top 7 prospects in the Braves system are all RHP. Really unusual, but the lineup is set for awhile. Unfortunately, except for Smith-Shawver, none of the top 7 have an ETA before 2025.

Braves top 30 prospects
Click to expand...
Trade a couple for a top lefty who's ready now? Not that they grow on trees, but seems ideal.
 
Pilchard said:
According to MLB pipeline, the top 7 prospects in the Braves system are all RHP. Really unusual, but the lineup is set for awhile. Unfortunately, except for Smith-Shawver, none of the top 7 have an ETA before 2025.

Braves top 30 prospects
Click to expand...
I don't know if he will be any good but Waldrep is not pitching the next two seasons in the minors.
 
tigerswood said:
Trade a couple for a top lefty who's ready now? Not that they grow on trees, but seems ideal.
Click to expand...
Farm system isn't strong enough to trade for a meaningful difference maker of a SP. Fangraphs has the Braves with the 25th best farm system, without any particularly high value prospects.

Maybe they could build a deal around Vaughn Grissom in order to get a SP of some kind, but I think it's way more likely that the Braves find a Morton-like replacement in FA and do their genuine best to re-sign Fried.

A lot of the future prospects of the Braves SP rotation rely on Waldrep turning out to be a mid-rotation type of guy and some combination of Wright/Soroka/Dodd/Shuster getting back on track.
 
deacon14 said:
Farm system isn't strong enough to trade for a meaningful difference maker of a SP. Fangraphs has the Braves with the 25th best farm system, without any particularly high value prospects.

Maybe they could build a deal around Vaughn Grissom in order to get a SP of some kind, but I think it's way more likely that the Braves find a Morton-like replacement in FA and do their genuine best to re-sign Fried.

A lot of the future prospects of the Braves SP rotation rely on Waldrep turning out to be a mid-rotation type of guy and some combination of Wright/Soroka/Dodd/Shuster getting back on track.
Click to expand...
Dodd isn’t a top prospect. He was just the most MLB ready. I think he basically is what he is. I do think Vines showed some promise.
 
deacdixieboy said:
Dodd isn’t a top prospect. He was just the most MLB ready. I think he basically is what he is. I do think Vines showed some promise.
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I didn't say that he was a top prospect. You don't need to be a top prospect to pitch successfully as a SP#4 or SP#5 for a few years, which is what I'm hoping for
 
2023-4 MLB Free Agent starting pitchers (some intriguing possibilities, but a lot of guys on the downside):

STARTING PITCHERS
Shohei Ohtani (29 years old, 18.4 WAR)
Aaron Nola (31, 10.2)
Blake Snell (31, 7.7)
Sonny Gray (34, 7.6)
Jordan Montgomery (31, 7.0)
Clayton Kershaw (36, 6.2)
Alex Cobb (36, 5.4) -- club option
Marcus Stroman (33, 4.8) -- opt-out
Kyle Gibson (36, 4.4)
Martín Pérez (33, 4.4)
Julio Urías (27, 4.4)
Charlie Morton (40, 4.2) -- club option
Michael Wacha (32, 4.1) -- club option/player option
Eduardo Rodriguez (31, 3.7) -- opt-out
Kyle Hendricks (34, 3.1) -- club option
Seth Lugo (34, 3.1) -- player option
Zack Greinke (40, 3.0)
Ross Stripling (34, 2.9) -- opt-out
Lucas Giolito (29, 2.8)
Michael Lorenzen (32, 2.7)
Mike Clevinger (33, 2.6) -- mutual option
Andrew Heaney (33, 2.5) -- opt-out
Rich Hill (44, 2.5)
Tyler Mahle (29, 2.5)
Lance Lynn (37, 2.4) -- club option
Drew Smyly (35, 2.3) -- opt-out
Corey Kluber (38, 2.2) -- club option
Carlos Carrasco (37, 2.1)
Sean Manaea (32, 2.1) -- opt-out
Frankie Montas (31, 2.0)
Alex Wood (33, 1.9)
Jack Flaherty (28, 1.8)
Johnny Cueto (38, 1.7) -- club option
Noah Syndergaard (31, 1.7)
Wade Miley (37, 1.6) -- mutual option
Kenta Maeda (35, 1.5)
Zach Davies (31, 1.2)
Jake Odorizzi (34, 1.2)
Vince Velasquez (32, 1.1)
Matthew Boyd (33, 1.0)
James Paxton (34, 1.0)
Luke Weaver (30, 0.9)
Luis Severino (30, 0.8)
Brad Keller (28, 0.6)
Hyun Jin Ryu (37, 0.5)
Chase Anderson (36, 0.3)
Julio Teheran (33, 0.3)
Chris Flexen (29, 0.2)
José Ureña (32, 0.2)
Madison Bumgarner (33, 0.0)
Chad Kuhl (31, -0.1)
Dallas Keuchel (36, -0.2)
Tommy Milone (37, -0.4)
Drew Rucinski (35, -0.6) -- club option
 
Pilchard said:
2023-4 MLB Free Agent starting pitchers (some intriguing possibilities, but a lot of guys on the downside):

STARTING PITCHERS
Shohei Ohtani (29 years old, 18.4 WAR)
Aaron Nola (31, 10.2)
Blake Snell (31, 7.7)
Sonny Gray (34, 7.6)
Jordan Montgomery (31, 7.0)
Clayton Kershaw (36, 6.2)
Alex Cobb (36, 5.4) -- club option
Marcus Stroman (33, 4.8) -- opt-out
Kyle Gibson (36, 4.4)
Martín Pérez (33, 4.4)
Julio Urías (27, 4.4)
Charlie Morton (40, 4.2) -- club option
Michael Wacha (32, 4.1) -- club option/player option
Eduardo Rodriguez (31, 3.7) -- opt-out
Kyle Hendricks (34, 3.1) -- club option
Seth Lugo (34, 3.1) -- player option
Zack Greinke (40, 3.0)
Ross Stripling (34, 2.9) -- opt-out
Lucas Giolito (29, 2.8)
Michael Lorenzen (32, 2.7)
Mike Clevinger (33, 2.6) -- mutual option
Andrew Heaney (33, 2.5) -- opt-out
Rich Hill (44, 2.5)
Tyler Mahle (29, 2.5)
Lance Lynn (37, 2.4) -- club option
Drew Smyly (35, 2.3) -- opt-out
Corey Kluber (38, 2.2) -- club option
Carlos Carrasco (37, 2.1)
Sean Manaea (32, 2.1) -- opt-out
Frankie Montas (31, 2.0)
Alex Wood (33, 1.9)
Jack Flaherty (28, 1.8)
Johnny Cueto (38, 1.7) -- club option
Noah Syndergaard (31, 1.7)
Wade Miley (37, 1.6) -- mutual option
Kenta Maeda (35, 1.5)
Zach Davies (31, 1.2)
Jake Odorizzi (34, 1.2)
Vince Velasquez (32, 1.1)
Matthew Boyd (33, 1.0)
James Paxton (34, 1.0)
Luke Weaver (30, 0.9)
Luis Severino (30, 0.8)
Brad Keller (28, 0.6)
Hyun Jin Ryu (37, 0.5)
Chase Anderson (36, 0.3)
Julio Teheran (33, 0.3)
Chris Flexen (29, 0.2)
José Ureña (32, 0.2)
Madison Bumgarner (33, 0.0)
Chad Kuhl (31, -0.1)
Dallas Keuchel (36, -0.2)
Tommy Milone (37, -0.4)
Drew Rucinski (35, -0.6) -- club option
Click to expand...
There's a few guys here that I could see the Braves going the Charlie Morton route with (short term contract with high AAV). Could also chase after a rebound with Giolito for cheaper than he would have expected to be.

Realistically I don't believe there's much of a chance any of the top 6 on this list end up as a Brave
 
deacon14 said:
I didn't say that he was a top prospect. You don't need to be a top prospect to pitch successfully as a SP#4 or SP#5 for a few years, which is what I'm hoping for
Click to expand...
We don’t need SP4 and 5 though. Look what we did in the regular season this year. We need 1’s and 2’s who will actually pitch in the playoffs.
 
deacdixieboy said:
We don’t need SP4 and 5 though. Look what we did in the regular season this year. We need 1’s and 2’s who will actually pitch in the playoffs.
Click to expand...
If you see a realistic avenue for adding an ace SP (in addition to Strider and Fried for 2024) to this Braves team I'd love to hear about it. Considering the already committed payroll and the weak farm system, I don't think it's possible. The best bet is Waldrep hitting his ceiling or somehow finding the money to re-sign Fried.

The Braves have gone all in on extending and committing money to the core of their offense, so that's going to need to be the part of the team that carries them through the playoffs. Hasn't worked at all so far this year.
 
deacon14 said:
If you see a realistic avenue for adding an ace SP (in addition to Strider and Fried for 2024) to this Braves team I'd love to hear about it. Considering the already committed payroll and the weak farm system, I don't think it's possible. The best bet is Waldrep hitting his ceiling or somehow finding the money to re-sign Fried.

The Braves have gone all in on extending and committing money to the core of their offense, so that's going to need to be the part of the team that carries them through the playoffs. Hasn't worked at all so far this year.
Click to expand...
The money is there. They just have to use it and be okay paying the luxury tax.
 
deacdixieboy said:
The money is there. They just have to use it and be okay paying the luxury tax.
Click to expand...
Austin Riley gets a $6 million raise in 2024. Sean Murphy gets a $5 million raise in 2024, and then another $6 million raise in 2025. Fried will get a significant raise in 2024 based on Arb, and if they want to re-sign him for 2025 it will be another significant raise. In 2025 Strider jumps from $1 million to $4 million, and in 2026 that jumps to $20 million.

Money coming off the books includes potentially declined $20 million and $9 million options for Morton/Rosario, but they are going to have to pay replacements for those spots because it is unlikely to come from the farm system. The rest of the money that comes off the books is a few relievers making $5 million or less, but again they will have to go out and sign (or re-sign) RPs to similar contracts.

The Braves were already 10th this year in payroll at $206 million, and I simply don't see them going much higher than that. You can argue that they should be willing to spend like the Mets or Yankees because the Battery prints money, but until something like that happens I'm not going to sit here and project that it might.
 
mercurydime said:
Whatever happened with Grissom as an outfielder? Or he just could be trade bait?

Hope the Braves pull it together today in Philly.
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I do wonder if that's going to be the plan next year. Tell him right now that his future as a Brave relies on him passably playing LF and see what he looks like in the spring. My understanding is that he was fairly terrible out there (in limited action) this year though.

I also don't think he's the elite bat that some Braves fans seem to believe. But he's one of very few prospects the Braves have with real value, so I understand why a lot of fans have latched onto him
 
Forgot how much we gave up to get Murphy . Seems pretty dumb looking back, but hopefully he can rebound and regain his 1st half form in future years. Muller was awful and Tarnok got injured (and wasn't great), but Contreras was solid. Not sure why we felt the need to upgrade from TDA/Contreras.

And giving up on Waters was pretty bizarre, but maybe they knew he just wasn't it, despite his lofty prospect rankings. He was real bad for KC this year.
 
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