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2023 WF Baseball - Schedule Released

The longtime suffering Wake/NC resident in me looks at the standings and sees UNC sweeping FSU to go .500 in conference play, then picking up a couple of wins in the ACC tournament to get an NCAA bid, followed by a "magical" run to Omaha.
 
DownEastDeac said:
The longtime suffering Wake/NC resident in me looks at the standings and sees UNC sweeping FSU to go .500 in conference play, then picking up a couple of wins in the ACC tournament to get an NCAA bid, followed by a "magical" run to Omaha.
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At least we know they won’t win it all. They are cursed.
 
We would be dead in the water without our non-conference performance.
 
RPI is at 19 now.

Pretty wild considering we’ve won only 3 games in the last 4 ACC series.
 
A loss to Coastal at their place by a run and a blown game at High Point but other than that the Deacs did what they had to do early in the season and midweek. A welcome change from years past.
 
According to warrennolan.com WF is #20 in RPI; WF has the #3 RPI in OOC games; WF has played the #28 overall schedule, and the #133 OOC schedule:

https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2022/rpi-live

FWIW, last year, the team with the best RPI to not make the NCAA was #44 UGA. They went 31-25 (13-17). So, if WF maintains a top 25 RPI, it would be rare for WF to not receive an NCAA bid. That said, to be safe, think WF needs to win at least two more games, including the ACCT. If WF wins 3 more games, WF is in. The disaster scenario would be getting swept at NC State and either not making the ACCT, or then getting swept in the ACCT. Both scenarios seem very unlikely.
 
This series is also EXTREMELY important to State who sits at #32 in RPI.
 
State lost 2 to UNC by 1 run each and had a solid win. We don't play well in Raleigh, so I'm thinking a sweep by them is very possible and I doubt we win the series. Our overall confidence is still lacking which will hurt us here and in the ACC tourney. This team next year will look a lot like '17's team, IMHO, but can they win a regional if not at home?

I'm still not convinced we make the NCAAs. We had good numbers in basketball and didn't get in. We have to remember upsets in conference tourneys could play a role...


I know I'm overall a pessimist regarding baseball for 10 years now, but if we lose the State series and the first game of the ACC, that will not be a strong last half or quarter finish of the season. Could see the selection committee finding a way to overlook us just like basketball....but hoping for the best...
 
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80deacon said:
State lost 2 to UNC by 1 run each and had a solid win. We don't play well in Raleigh, so I'm thinking a sweep by them is very possible and I doubt we win the series. Our overall confidence is still lacking which will hurt us here and in the ACC tourney. This team next year will look a lot like '17's team, IMHO, but can they win a regional if not at home?

I'm still not convinced we make the NCAAs. We had good numbers in basketball and didn't get in. We have to remember upsets in conference tourneys could play a role...


I know I'm overall a pessimist regarding baseball for 10 years now, but if we lose the State series and the first game of the ACC, that will not be a strong last half or quarter finish of the season. Could see the selection committee finding a way to overlook us just like basketball....but hoping for the best...
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I agree with all of this. I’m very concerned about making the NCAAs. I think we have to win at least 2 more.
 
If WF gets in, the Deacs will play a minimum of two games in the ACCT (the tournament is divided into pods of 3). So, if WF plays in the ACCT, WF has a minimum of 5 games left, all against teams likely to be in the top 30 in RPI:

If WF loses out, WF misses out on the NCAAT, even with a top 30 RPI.

If WF wins one, WF will be sweating, and could very possibly get excluded despite a top 30 RPI for a stumbling finish

If WF wins two, WF will very likely be in.

If WF wins three or more, WF is in, and a regional host is not out of the question.

Pretty amazing range of outcomes with one series left in the regular season.
 
also keep in mind the ACCT is a single-elimination tournament in disguise, with consolation games sprinkled in.

so if WF loses its first "pool" game (which is really an elimination game), they get to play a game against one of the top 4 seeds, which will be meaningless to that other team while very important to WF. The higher seed should be resting its best pitching for the games in the ACCT that will matter for them.
 
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