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2024 Presidential Primaries and Election

avalon said:
This isn't a 3rd party run, it's Republicans trying to paint themselves as a "unity ticket."

Even if you buy their telling of the situation, they're not running on any principles or ideas.
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They’re running for people like my in-laws who could surely never vote for Trump because he’s uncouth but Biden is too darn radical with his CRT and woke nonsense.
 
I think there are a good number of people out there who wouldn't vote for Trump, but also (perhaps privately) wouldn't mind another four years of Trump or at least Trump or Biden would be equally bad. If you explained to them how a vote for No Labels helps Trump, that wouldn't sway them because they're not voting for Trump.
 
PhDeac said:
I think there are a good number of people out there who wouldn't vote for Trump, but also (perhaps privately) wouldn't mind another four years of Trump or at least Trump or Biden would be equally bad. If you explained to them how a vote for No Labels helps Trump, that wouldn't sway them because they're not voting for Trump.
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Exactly. It’s a permission structure to not vote for Biden.
 
Well said. The 3rd party money is attacking the margins of Biden support. No Labels is going after never Trump Republicans. Kennedy is trying to lock in people who may or may not vote but could swing late for Biden. Cornell West is trying to get Progressives/socialists who were reluctant Biden voters. Now I don't think any of these groups will get the majority of these groups. Nowhere close. But if they can peel off some of them, that may be enough to help Trump in swing states.

One thing about No Labels is it seems to be run by the people who lost any ability to attract voters since 2008. So there's a good chance they pick candidates with no base who will quickly embarrass themselves on a national stage. No Labels has been organized for awhile. They should have tried to run a primary or at least some kind of process parallel to the primary that engages their center-right base, drums up excitement, and gets public input into their process. But no need to do that if you're just trying to get a lazy 1.5%.
 
I wonder if they are hoping they can exert enough influence at the margins to swing a cabinet spot or something in exchange for withdrawing late and throwing their small support behind one side.

In different circumstances I'd find a centrist platform attractive but I'm with you thinking this is nothing more than a landing spot for the DeacsPops of the world.
 
The final Des Moines register poll has Trump at 48%, Haley at 20%, DeSantis at 16%, and Vivek at 8%.

I just don't think DeSantis supporters will show up in big numbers in below 0 weather. And many of those who do will switch over to Trump if pressured.
 
PhDeac said:
The final Des Moines register poll has Trump at 48%, Haley at 20%, DeSantis at 16%, and Vivek at 8%.

I just don't think DeSantis supporters will show up in big numbers in below 0 weather. And many of those who do will switch over to Trump if pressured.
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Seems like the four dimensional chess move for Trump would be to keep Meatball in it as long as possible to prevent the 1 in a 100 chance people start to coalesce around Haley
 
Henry Chinaski said:
Seems like the four dimensional chess move for Trump would be to keep Meatball in it as long as possible to prevent the 1 in a 100 chance people start to coalesce around Haley
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No way. They should try to crush both of them. DeSantis' voters will go to Trump. They need to pressure him to drop out and endorse him after Iowa. DeSantis is a distant 3rd in the NH polls. Trump has a chance at getting 50% in NH if DeSantis drops out which would probably be a 10%+ lead over Haley going into SC where Trump is strong in the polls. Without momentum from winning NH, she risks losing her home state.
 
After reading more about Dean Phillips and Williamson I'm kinda upset that the DNC is doing nothing for a proper primary. I'm still voting Biden because the current republican field will irreversibly send this country to hell in a handbasket, but does dem leadership really think Biden's the guy? Maybe it's the pessimist in me but I can't imagine anyone genuinely and confidently believes that Biden is the guy to defeat Trump, and can't shake the feeling that the DNC is gonna fuck this up
 
spritethr said:
After reading more about Dean Phillips and Williamson I'm kinda upset that the DNC is doing nothing for a proper primary. I'm still voting Biden because the current republican field will irreversibly send this country to hell in a handbasket, but does dem leadership really think Biden's the guy? Maybe it's the pessimist in me but I can't imagine anyone genuinely and confidently believes that Biden is the guy to defeat Trump, and can't shake the feeling that the DNC is gonna fuck this up
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Marianne Williamson? Did you see her debate in the 2020 primary? Absolute joke of a candidacy and Phillips is only slightly better. He's backed by a bunch of Lincoln Project never Trumpers who would just as soon vote for a no labels candidate over Phillips.

The reality is that there would be a primary if any legitimate challenger (Whitmer, Shapiro, Newsome, etc.) decided to run but none of them chose to do so. At that point, you may as well roll with the incumbent who beat the same challenger last time.
 
Yeah, my impression of Phillips is that he's a rich guy that's been convinced to run by consultants who want to get paid. In what interviews I have heard he comes off unprepared and unable to articulate anything he'd do differently from Biden.
 
avalon said:
Yeah, my impression of Phillips is that he's a rich guy that's been convinced to run by consultants who want to get paid. In what interviews I have heard he comes off unprepared and unable to articulate anything he'd do differently from Biden.
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His entire campaign is "yeah sure I've voted with Biden 100% of the time and generally support him but because I'm part of the 'problem solvers caucus' I'll somehow be able to negotiate better with Republicans. Oh yeah, and Biden is really old and that concerns me." Phillips would get absolutely crushed by Trump.
 
avalon said:
Yeah, my impression of Phillips is that he's a rich guy that's been convinced to run by consultants who want to get paid. In what interviews I have heard he comes off unprepared and unable to articulate anything he'd do differently from Biden.
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Yeah figured there was a catch to it but nobody’s talked about it, really. Saw he was a Minnesota democrat and figured that’s worth something since dems can actually get shit done up there
 
KingCurtis said:
Marianne Williamson? Did you see her debate in the 2020 primary? Absolute joke of a candidacy and Phillips is only slightly better. He's backed by a bunch of Lincoln Project never Trumpers who would just as soon vote for a no labels candidate over Phillips.

The reality is that there would be a primary if any legitimate challenger (Whitmer, Shapiro, Newsome, etc.) decided to run but none of them chose to do so. At that point, you may as well roll with the incumbent who beat the same challenger last time.
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Didn’t see her debate, and I agree with that last part. I didn’t do a good job of conveying it but I think the discouragement of a primary is doing a disservice by forcing those legitimate challengers out. I’m just nervous Biden won’t win is all.
 
spritethr said:
Yeah figured there was a catch to it but nobody’s talked about it, really. Saw he was a Minnesota democrat and figured that’s worth something since dems can actually get shit done up there
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I was pretty impressed with him in the interviews I've heard. But he doesn't make a case except polls and Biden's age.

I think I read that some big donors or consultants or whatever convinced Phillips to run. That's part of the problem of making politics a business and career. A lot of people depend on elections to make a living. Even campaigns destined to fail can get people paid.
 
spritethr said:
Didn’t see her debate, and I agree with that last part. I didn’t do a good job of conveying it but I think the discouragement of a primary is doing a disservice by forcing those legitimate challengers out. I’m just nervous Biden won’t win is all.
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I guess I just disagree that the DNC is discouraging a primary. If a real challenger were to run, I don’t think they’d have a choice but to have debates. In the end, it’s probably a bad idea to have your first run for president be against an incumbent in a primary so none of those legitimate candidates want to risk their political futures on that proposition.
 
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