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2024 Presidential Primaries and Election

mako1331 said:
Man, I'm glad everyone is so confident about this given what has happened in the past 7 years. Y'all remember that Biden basically won by an asshair in 20 despite Trump completely dicking up Covid in spectacular fashion, and most likely would've lost otherwise.
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Three important things. Biden won. Any presidential win will be by an asshair in the Electoral College. The momentum in actual elections since 2018 has been heavily for Democrats. None of those are guarantees. But sticking with Biden is much safer than fracturing the party future with a primary or having the Dem establish handpick replacements.

All of these people need to re-direct their energy from worrying about Biden to supporting Biden.
 
If people are dumb enough to want more of trump, not much a new candidate will do to change that anyway.
 
guitardeac said:
Polling called for a red wave. Didn't happen. A lot of the polls last week were way off.
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That's great, but because of how grave the consequences feel if a red wave does come we will continue to live in fear of it happening.

I thought the abortion issue would peter out the farther we got from the court decision, but I'm really glad to see it overwhelmingly carried the day for Democrats last week. Keep the momentum for another year please.
 
06deacon said:
If people are dumb enough to want more of trump, not much a new candidate will do to change that anyway.
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I don’t agree with needing a new candidate either, but the polling suggests the Dems and Biden need to start campaigning and maybe think up a new strategy.
 
I mean Newsom would win by a landslide, right? Why are we even risking it?
 
dartsndeacs said:
I mean Newsom would win by a landslide, right? Why are we even risking it?
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Who’s to say Newsom would beat Biden in the primary? Despite everyone’s hand wringing, Biden still has a 75%+ approval rating among democrats and is the incumbent who has already beaten his likely opponent in a national election. His administration has also accomplished a ton of positives on the legislative front despite razor thin majorities in the first 2 years and a fractured congress in his second 2.
 
KingCurtis said:
Who’s to say Newsom would beat Biden in the primary? Despite everyone’s hand wringing, Biden still has a 75%+ approval rating among democrats and is the incumbent who has already beaten his likely opponent in a national election. His administration has also accomplished a ton of positives on the legislative front despite razor thin majorities in the first 2 years and a fractured congress in his second 2.
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It's actually incredible what the administration has been able to get done on the heels of COVID and a Trump presidency. I was a doubter to begin with for sure, and certainly disagree with a lot of his more moderate positions, but it's impossible to say he hasn't done a really good job if you look at the big picture (for normal people, not talking about MAGAts or Fox News idiots).
 
Deacsfan27 said:
It's actually incredible what the administration has been able to get done on the heels of COVID and a Trump presidency. I was a doubter to begin with for sure, and certainly disagree with a lot of his more moderate positions, but it's impossible to say he hasn't done a really good job if you look at the big picture (for normal people, not talking about MAGAts or Fox News idiots).
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Absolutely. Now the job is to message those accomplishments so more people understand what they’ve done and contrast the existing accomplishments and future goals to the insane shit that Trump is suggesting (I.e., another corporate tax cut, death penalty for drug dealers, mass deportations, etc.).

Easier said than done in today’s media ecosystem but the policy arguments should be in Biden’s favor if his campaign is able to frame the election as a choice between Biden/Trump instead of just a referendum on Biden’s first term.
 
I want to again reiterate that I have been very happy with what all Biden has accomplished during his term overall. I'm just terrified of what another 4 years of Trump would entail, and I'm also very concerned about Biden's ability to win this next election through no real fault of his own.
 
KingCurtis said:
Who’s to say Newsom would beat Biden in the primary? Despite everyone’s hand wringing, Biden still has a 75%+ approval rating among democrats and is the incumbent who has already beaten his likely opponent in a national election. His administration has also accomplished a ton of positives on the legislative front despite razor thin majorities in the first 2 years and a fractured congress in his second 2.
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Biden has a higher approval rating among Democrats than Trump has among Republicans. And you see what Trump is doing in the Republican primary.

The main difference between the parties is that Democrats love to worry to WaPo. NYT, and Politico. Republicans either don't worry or channel their worrying into gerrymandering and disfranchising voters.
 
mercurydime said:
They need to quit worrying and start messaging.
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Right. One thing the left and center-left establish type have in common is have little interest in persuasion. They act like feelings about Biden or key issues are set in stone. Yet they also understand conservative media is very successful at persuasion.
 
The Biden campaign has been running a lot of ads in my swing state already. I appreciate that they're trying to make the argument early.

Side note, I agree that abortion should be a major issue that Dems run on. But don't forget the other lesson from the election last week: Republicans fully embraced the "Moms for Liberty" lunacy and it totally blew up in their faces. Apparently most parents DON'T want the reading material at their children's schools dictated by a small number of right wing nutjobs.
 
avalon said:
The Biden campaign has been running a lot of ads in my swing state already. I appreciate that they're trying to make the argument early.

Side note, I agree that abortion should be a major issue that Dems run on. But don't forget the other lesson from the election last week: Republicans fully embraced the "Moms for Liberty" lunacy and it totally blew up in their faces. Apparently most parents DON'T want the reading material at their children's schools dictated by a small number of right wing nutjobs.
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And national Dems have NOT fully embraced a pro-academic freedom stance in the same way they're pro-choice.
 
In most respects the 2020 election was a vote on democracy. People choose Biden because they were alarmed by the potential consequences another four years of Trump would bring. Trump's response to his loss and his behavior thereafter have made those fears legitimate and escalating. The reaction of the Republican party has done nothing to mitigate those fears. They have magnified them. There are no limits to their desire for power, sedition and violence included.

Dems love issues, platforms and policies. They would make a mistake by focusing on them. Use abortion as a supplement to the question of democracy. Any other policy that has the support of 60% (or more) of the population could serve a useful purpose. The future of the democratic process and the Constitution is THE issue and Trump and the Republican party are the very real threat. Keep a uniform message and don't get sidelined by programs or policy. Programs and policy should be used to demonstrate expertise and accomplishment that have been of benefit to all the citizens.

My chief concern for 2024 is that the Democrats leave the obvious and urgent issue of democracy and the Constitution to argue issues of minimal consequence in comparision. Bring a sledge hammer and don't quit using it.
 
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