That said, Haley has shown some consistency on issues of economic and fiscal policy. And what you should know is that her positions on these issues are
pretty far to the right. In particular, she seems
exceptionally explicit, even among would-be Republican nominees, in calling for an increase in the age at which Americans become eligible for Social Security — a bad idea that seems to be experiencing a revival.
So let’s talk about Social Security.
The first thing you should know about Social Security is that the actual numbers don’t justify the apocalyptic rhetoric one often hears, not just from the right but from self-proclaimed centrists who want to sound serious. No, the exhaustion of the system’s
trust fund, currently projected to occur in roughly a decade, wouldn’t mean that benefits disappear.
It would mean that the system would need additional revenue to continue paying scheduled benefits in full. But the extra revenue required would be smaller than you probably think. The most recent
long-term projections from the Congressional Budget Office show Social Security outlays rising to 6.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2053 from 5.1 percent this year, not exactly an earth-shattering increase.
It’s true that the budget office projects a much bigger rise in spending on Medicare and other major health programs. But much of this projected rise reflects the assumption that medical costs will rise much faster than economic growth, which has been true in the past but need not be true in the future. Indeed, since 2010,
Medicare spending has been far less than expected. And there is every reason to believe that smart policies could further curb health care costs, given
how much more America spends than other wealthy nations.
Still, Social Security does face a funding gap. How should it be closed?
Anyone who says, as Haley does, that the retirement age should rise in line with increasing life expectancy is being oblivious, perhaps willfully, to the grim inequality of modern America. Until Covid struck, average
life expectancy at 65, the relevant number, was indeed rising. But these gains were concentrated among Americans with
relatively high incomes. Less affluent Americans — those who depend most on Social Security — have seen little rise in life expectancy, and in some cases actual declines.
