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ABC Mafia Game Thread - NIGHT

Also thought blue played pretty well other than the dumbtell
 
I know doofus didnt even have an order put in when he got afk lynched
 
Think maf wins even if I don't change momentum from smidge to sd3 and tic hits ryala. Wouldn't have got bym
 
gouda said:
Think maf wins even if I don't change momentum from smidge to sd3 and tic hits ryala. Wouldn't have got bym
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Maybe not with Tim and TiC dead.


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gouda said:
Think maf wins even if I don't change momentum from smidge to sd3 and tic hits ryala. Wouldn't have got bym
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Ryala was also JK'd last night. BYM and I also wouldn't have jumped on the smidge bandwagon...we kinda just waited until people started pushing it towards someone we could get behind.

I was being serious in that it was a very -EV move for civs to use that vig. Even if he hits smidge, it's still 5-3 and one mis-lynch away from losing.
 
gouda said:
Also thought blue played pretty well other than the dumbtell
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Agreed. He was one of the only ones to actually be putting in analysis and trying to understand why people were acting as they were. Tejas and I in chatzy noted that he has good instincts.
 
AnonymousDeac said:
Ryala was also JK'd last night. BYM and I also wouldn't have jumped on the smidge bandwagon...we kinda just waited until people started pushing it towards someone we could get behind.

I was being serious in that it was a very -EV move for civs to use that vig. Even if he hits smidge, it's still 5-3 and one mis-lynch away from losing.
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Kinda have to try to get a hit there from TIC. Bigger issue would be sd3 probably being unable to get out of a final lynch.
 
gouda said:
Kinda have to try to get a hit there from TIC. Bigger issue would be sd3 probably being unable to get out of a final lynch.
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Agree on SD3. But you literally gain nothing from a hit there. If anything, it makes the odds worse for having to lynch a mafia the next day.

Unless you're using it on someone that is mafia that you believe would never have gotten lynched (e.g., deaconblue), then given the numbers, it's better to just let it play out.
 
AnonymousDeac said:
Agree on SD3. But you literally gain nothing from a hit there. If anything, it makes the odds worse for having to lynch a mafia the next day.

Unless you're using it on someone that is mafia that you believe would never have gotten lynched (e.g., deaconblue), then given the numbers, it's better to just let it play out.
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If he hits one of the two I said? +EV
 
gouda said:
If he hits one of the two I said? +EV
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1. That's not how expected value works.
2. Still not true.
- If he hits Ryala, nothing happens. He still dies but Ryala was protected.
- If he hits Smidge, count is now 5-3 (instead of 5-4). Civs still have to lynch a mafia or they lose but now instead of having 44% (4/9) of the remaining players as mafia, 37.5% (3/8) are mafia.

Hitting a mafia is actually the second worse result, after hitting a civ. To be honest, we maybe shouldn't have even JK'd anyone.
 
Heh, +ev just means good for civs in my head.

I think your math only works if we are playing blind though.
 
Nonny was really obvious to me. Probably because it's easy to tell when you're being set up by a mafia baddie.

Ryala is not awarded an honorable win.




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gouda said:
Heh, +ev just means good for civs in my head.

I think your math only works if we are playing blind though.
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Right +ev = positive expected value for civs.

My math is based off what is best for civs. You'd rather have a 44% chance of randomly hitting a mafia than a 37.5% chance. And hitting someone like smidge who most think are mafia actually makes it more difficult next time when you have to kill a mafia.

Similarly...for the final round, you'd ideally want 2 civs and 1 mafia. Not 3 civs and 1 mafia.
 
The only one I had much of a mafia read was Ryala. But he pretty much disappeared and slipped off my radar screen. The rest I had no clue about. Questions buy no good answers.
Yes I would like to hear how the mafia picked their targets.
 
AnonymousDeac said:
Also, JTP is the absolute worst at retaliatory votes. I need to remember that for the future. I remembered it from previous games after the fact but he'll almost always just go after whoever targets him.
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I really wasn't just retaliating. You were doing a poor job of making a case against me. Seemed obvious.

I probably need to explain that though, not just vote. I was legitimately busy this week though.
 
jtpterp said:
I really wasn't just retaliating. You were doing a poor job of making a case against me. Seemed obvious.

I probably need to explain that though, not just vote. I was legitimately busy this week though.
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This. Nonny making bad arguments. The slips on tic put him off immediate list though
 
AnonymousDeac said:
Right +ev = positive expected value for civs.

My math is based off what is best for civs. You'd rather have a 44% chance of randomly hitting a mafia than a 37.5% chance. And hitting someone like smidge who most think are mafia actually makes it more difficult next time when you have to kill a mafia.

Similarly...for the final round, you'd ideally want 2 civs and 1 mafia. Not 3 civs and 1 mafia.
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Yeah math not my strong point for sure, but killing a mafia there, even if somewhat lucky, is what I'd take every time. Maybe I'm wrong. But we play very different styles. I'm all about tone to clear civs, you're more of a maf hunting player.
 
That was the first time I've been a vanilla in like six months and it showed. I thought I was picking up on tells and was striking out left and right. Once the pool shallowed out I was much better but it was too late.
 
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