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Are you Libs getting worried yet?

Yeah, Silver is all in. Btw, where has Palin been? What a no-show by her. Just confirmed what a light weight she is.
 
Ball State Deac said:
Yeah, Silver is all in. Btw, where has Palin been? What a no-show by her. Just confirmed what a light weight she is.
Click to expand...

She was Romney-out so hard in the primaries that she refused to pivot. I expect to see her lead the "I told you so" charge from the far right sometime Wednesday or Thursday.
 
And there is Obama, out there seeming tired and wan, showing up through sheer self discipline. A few weeks ago I saw the president and the governor at the Al Smith dinner, and both were beautiful specimens in their white ties and tails, and both worked the dais. But sitting there listening to the jokes and speeches, the archbishop of New York sitting between them, Obama looked like a young challenger—flinty, not so comfortable. He was distracted, and his smiles seemed forced. He looked like a man who’d just seen some bad internal polling. Romney? Expansive, hilarious, self-spoofing, with a few jokes of finely calibrated meanness that were just perfect for the crowd. He looked like a president. He looked like someone who’d just seen good internals.

Of all people, Obama would know if he is in trouble. When it comes to national presidential races, he is a finely tuned political instrument: He read the field perfectly in 2008. He would know if he’s losing now, and it would explain his joylessness on the stump. He is out there doing what he has to to fight the fight. But he’s still trying to fire up the base when he ought to be wooing the center and speaking their calm centrist talk. His crowds haven’t been big. His people have struggled to fill various venues. This must hurt the president after the trememdous, stupendous crowds of ’08. “Voting’s the best revenge”—revenge against who, and for what? This is not a man who feels himself on the verge of a grand victory. His campaign doesn’t seem president-sized. It is small and sad and lost, driven by formidable will and zero joy.

I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what’s coming, and it’s part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama so roiled.

http://blogs.wsj.com/peggynoonan/2012/11/05/monday-morning/
 
This election is about turnout. It is plain and simple. Tomorrow is going to be fascinating.
 
Well, if Peggy Noonan says it, it must be true. I like when people pay more attention to pundits than pollsters.
 
Somebody should pull together dirty's greatest election season posts tonight.
 
dirtydeac said:
And there is Obama, out there seeming tired and wan, showing up through sheer self discipline. A few weeks ago I saw the president and the governor at the Al Smith dinner, and both were beautiful specimens in their white ties and tails, and both worked the dais. But sitting there listening to the jokes and speeches, the archbishop of New York sitting between them, Obama looked like a young challenger—flinty, not so comfortable. He was distracted, and his smiles seemed forced. He looked like a man who’d just seen some bad internal polling. Romney? Expansive, hilarious, self-spoofing, with a few jokes of finely calibrated meanness that were just perfect for the crowd. He looked like a president. He looked like someone who’d just seen good internals.

Of all people, Obama would know if he is in trouble. When it comes to national presidential races, he is a finely tuned political instrument: He read the field perfectly in 2008. He would know if he’s losing now, and it would explain his joylessness on the stump. He is out there doing what he has to to fight the fight. But he’s still trying to fire up the base when he ought to be wooing the center and speaking their calm centrist talk. His crowds haven’t been big. His people have struggled to fill various venues. This must hurt the president after the trememdous, stupendous crowds of ’08. “Voting’s the best revenge”—revenge against who, and for what? This is not a man who feels himself on the verge of a grand victory. His campaign doesn’t seem president-sized. It is small and sad and lost, driven by formidable will and zero joy.

I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what’s coming, and it’s part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama so roiled.

http://blogs.wsj.com/peggynoonan/2012/11/05/monday-morning/
Click to expand...

Being President is hard on a man. It is always sort of frightening to me how much they can age in 4 years.

img-hp-main-aging-presidents_151014150686.jpg
 
BarcaDeac said:
Because he just gave his last ever campaign speech
Click to expand...

Does Romney really tell a story at each campaign event about getting an electric jolt up his arm when he touched a flag, like he's some sort of Patriot superhero? Dude's fucking cuckoo.
 
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...-and-centrist-voters-breaking-with-precedent/

"For example, here in the must-win battleground state of Ohio, the final CNN/ORC poll showed Romney edging Obama among independent voters by two points, 48% to 46%. But among moderate voters, Obama is crushing Romney by 21 points – 57% to 36%.

This is significant because in past elections independents and centrist voters have been largely synonymous–overlapping cohorts, reflecting the belief of many independents that the two parties are too polarized and disproportionately dominated by their respective special interests. But what I think we're seeing this year is the extended impact of the tea party – a growth in the number of independent conservatives that has moved the overall independent voting block slightly to the right. In turn, centrist voters are more likely to vote for Obama precisely because of the polarizing impact of the tea party and the intransigence of many conservative congressmen when it came to working in a good faith spirit of principled compromise with the Obama administration."

http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/p...opulation":[],"pollsters":[],"candidates":[]}
 
WFFaithful said:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...-and-centrist-voters-breaking-with-precedent/

"For example, here in the must-win battleground state of Ohio, the final CNN/ORC poll showed Romney edging Obama among independent voters by two points, 48% to 46%. But among moderate voters, Obama is crushing Romney by 21 points – 57% to 36%.

This is significant because in past elections independents and centrist voters have been largely synonymous–overlapping cohorts, reflecting the belief of many independents that the two parties are too polarized and disproportionately dominated by their respective special interests. But what I think we're seeing this year is the extended impact of the tea party – a growth in the number of independent conservatives that has moved the overall independent voting block slightly to the right. In turn, centrist voters are more likely to vote for Obama precisely because of the polarizing impact of the tea party and the intransigence of many conservative congressmen when it came to working in a good faith spirit of principled compromise with the Obama administration."

http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/p...opulation":[],"pollsters":[],"candidates":[]}
Click to expand...

I do not disagree with this at all. The Tea Party has had some positive effects on smaller elections, but has really damaged the national Republican brand.
 
dirtydeac said:
And there is Obama, out there seeming tired and wan, showing up through sheer self discipline. A few weeks ago I saw the president and the governor at the Al Smith dinner, and both were beautiful specimens in their white ties and tails, and both worked the dais. But sitting there listening to the jokes and speeches, the archbishop of New York sitting between them, Obama looked like a young challenger—flinty, not so comfortable. He was distracted, and his smiles seemed forced. He looked like a man who’d just seen some bad internal polling. Romney? Expansive, hilarious, self-spoofing, with a few jokes of finely calibrated meanness that were just perfect for the crowd. He looked like a president. He looked like someone who’d just seen good internals.

Of all people, Obama would know if he is in trouble. When it comes to national presidential races, he is a finely tuned political instrument: He read the field perfectly in 2008. He would know if he’s losing now, and it would explain his joylessness on the stump. He is out there doing what he has to to fight the fight. But he’s still trying to fire up the base when he ought to be wooing the center and speaking their calm centrist talk. His crowds haven’t been big. His people have struggled to fill various venues. This must hurt the president after the trememdous, stupendous crowds of ’08. “Voting’s the best revenge”—revenge against who, and for what? This is not a man who feels himself on the verge of a grand victory. His campaign doesn’t seem president-sized. It is small and sad and lost, driven by formidable will and zero joy.

I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what’s coming, and it’s part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama so roiled.

http://blogs.wsj.com/peggynoonan/2012/11/05/monday-morning/
Click to expand...

ROMNEY IS A THIEF!!!!

"I think he’s stealing in “like a thief with good tools,” in Walker Percy’s old words."
 
Does anyone know if Silver only uses public polls or he has access to any internals?
 
SkinsNDeacs said:
Does anyone know if Silver only uses public polls or he has access to any internals?
Click to expand...

I dunno if he has access to internals, but I'm sure there's some contact with the campaigns off the record, and if he was hearing similar things from both campaigns that made him think the public polling was off, he'd hedge is bets a little. I'm just speculating though.
 
Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

FYI: Internal polls released to the public have a 6-point bias, on average, as we saw in Wisconsin recall earlier this year.


So, he has access, but I doubt he uses them. He certainly weights them, if he does.
 
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