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Avengers Endfinity Wargame Mafia; MAFIA WINS

bym051d said:
If Eagles is Mafia, wouldn’t jailing him prevent a cop check?

If Eagles is Mafia, this is reason #1 to jail him and reason #2 is to entice a watch.

Sorry to distract from the DV7 / Toogs discussion. I’m multitasking.
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I dont think jailing stops investigations - just Roleblocks and stops the person from using their own powers.

I am going to caveat this by saying, I could be completely wrong.
 
Shinyman said:
I am okay with DV7 and Toogs going. ***switch to Toogs***
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DaDeacs said:
Can we restart the damo speculation?

I think that he found Thanas, but then decided he didnt care about playing the game any more and then just killed himself overnight.
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Why Toogs now? Also, if Damo stopped playing he should be shamed. I think we have to assume he didn't find Thanos.
 
deacvision7 said:
I can put everyone at ease and promise that I am not a baddie. I was confused AF at the end of last round tho.
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If you're seriously confused, you know what you can do at the end of a round? Not post and switch. There's no law that forces you to hit reply at the end of every day.
 
WFU03 said:
Ignoring the attempt to lynch the guy who died, there is some analysis here.

With 20 minutes to go, it was 6 (Townie) to 4 (Redwing) and I had 3 votes.

We know Townie was mafia, so if you're mafia at this point, what is the play? Sacrifice Townie or attempt to swing the vote in your favor with the 20 minutes you have left? With that much time, I'd say it's highly likely that you try to change the numbers.

So let's look at who votes to move people:
tcc moves redwing up to make it 6T, 5R, 3W.

At this point, I am the least likely person to get lynched. The next vote is redwing, who votes for me, not Townie, making it 6T, 5R, 4W.

Timdunk then pushes Townie ahead further to make it 7T, 5R, 4W. At this point with 7 minutes left, the mafia need to figure out how to save Townie or make themselves look good if he dies. However, if Redwing is also mafia, this goal is much harder.


Then we have this bunch of switches/posts:
GAT switches to Gouda
GAT switches to 03 saying too late to run Gouda
Towniedeac votes gouda
DV7 votes 03
Da votes ryala to get one in
I switch to 03
Toogs says this This is a very strange end of round. Kill redwing please it's obvious what he is doing.
Towndeac switches to 03
GAT switches to townie
Wakeforest22890 switches to Townie
DV7 switches to Townie
Towniedeac switch to PH
DV7 switches to 03

Of the people switching to me (GAT, DV7, TCC), there's likely some mafia there if Redwing comes back mafia. If Redwing isn't mafia, it's still very odd to go with me instead of him considering the vote difference.
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This is a good post
 
Gaterrapin said:
Feels like Toogs got the memo about how his tone was off on the first two days. Flip of the switch and now the Toogs we all know and love is back.

Too late, broseph. ***Toogs***
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Agree with this. Toogs sounds very different than he did the first days.
 
WFU03 said:
Speaking of impossibly dumb....
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EN5zc5X.png
 
deacvision7 said:
per Ph, an avid Avenger geek, my Groot breadcrumbs were so bad that nobody would have picked up on them unless I pointed them out. If I was mafia with Townie and saw that the safe claim of Groot was burned, why would I have still gone through with my own safe claim of Groot? Would it not then make more sense to keep my mouth shut the next day or pick another provided safe claim to try and claim with some sort of power?

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
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You would claim Groot because you believe that counter-claiming is a better option than any of the other safe claims. Or maybe maf only got 1 safe claim. Who the fuck knows. But for damned sure you weren't breadcrumbing Groot with those posts.
 
bernbp5 said:
Why Toogs now? Also, if Damo stopped playing he should be shamed. I think we have to assume he didn't find Thanos.
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I mean, not finding him is the prevailing thought.

The other strong contender is that Damo missed his investigations all 3 nights because he wanted to challenge himself playing blind and never actually looked at his role.
 
Gaterrapin said:
You would claim Groot because you believe that counter-claiming is a better option than any of the other safe claims. Or maybe maf only got 1 safe claim. Who the fuck knows. But for damned sure you weren't breadcrumbing Groot with those posts.
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Of all the possibilities, this one is least likely.
 
Eagles_Legendz said:
mk just so i'm clear...it seems like the most likely scenario is dv7 breadcrumbed a role throughout this game to claim it later as mafia, only to have his teammate claim the same role & dv7 still claim it this round without alleging having any powers. that's what i just read right?
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This seems like the most likely answer. Townie screwed up and picked the wrong claim. But why did dv7 bring everyone's attention to his terrible breadcrumbing anyway? That's the only question I have.
 
DaDeacs said:
What does that post tell you? That WFU03 might be more likely mafia than redwing?
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Nah. I missed the end of that round so it was helpful to get a narrative. The fact that townie voted 03 instead of redwing is good for 03 imo. I’m disregarding the late switches - too chaotic
 
ryalaman said:
Breadcrumbing a vanilla role is almost too ridiculous to even think about, and the timelines are hilarious (yeah, you had time to post like 10 words in addition to your vote right at the deadline but not "I am actually groot"). Everything about it is so terrible that most people maf just kick out of it because there is absolutely no way that this is a rational play to continue to make.
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If dv7 is actually groot, the correct post would be something about him being groot and then voting for Townie. Or, alternatively, just voting for Townie. However, he then switched off Townie and on to me. You wouldn't do that if you were actually groot and just saw someone claim your role.
 
deacvision7 said:
Again, I didn't see that Townie was claiming Groot until after God declared night. I only saw the other two switches to Townie, made pretty much simultaneously to mine at 4:29 and wanted to switch back to make it a tie.
I typed those few extra words in the 20 seconds I had between posts because I'm really good with my home keys! #humblebrag
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How did you make two posts after he claimed he was groot, including a switch if you didn't see that he claimed groot?
 
romanovKU said:
Eagles roleblock jailing thesis

As a preface: if someone has been roleblocked besides eagles, please say so. Would affect the following:

Six possible universes exist in my mind. I’ve never seen an Indy with roleblock:

1. Eagles is civ / mafia roleblock
2. Eagles is Indy / mafia roleblock
3. Eagles is mafia / mafia roleblock
4. Eagles is civ / civ jailing
5. Eagles is Indy / civ jailing
6. Eagles is mafia / civ jailing
7. Eagles is civ / no roleblock
8. Eagles is Indy / no roleblock
9. Eagles is maf / no roleblock

1. Mafia doesn’t know the setup so they can’t know if we have a watcher. Therefore they wouldn’t want to stick their roleblocker out in the wind like that 3 nights in a row. Small chance it is an unwatchable roleblock but I’ve never seen that before and seems overpowered if it can be used on the same person consecutively.
2. Same as #1 + civs are getting lucky.
3. This was one of two reasons I started drafting this post. Using the watcher existence logic from #1, this would be a long con play that would get their roleblocker sacrificed, but nearly clear eagles. That said, eagles would likely get hit on a cop investigation. We know there is a godfather in the game so unless we never see a godfather flip otherwise, we are probably safe here because it wouldn’t make sense to sac the rb for a non-gf eagles. If a gf never flips and a mafia rb flips and eagles is alive late, ice his ass.
4. There’s no logic to disprove this. 4-6 are equally likely. Only downside is if Eagles is a powerful civ. Cop should have a report on eagles so should be fine.
5. There’s no logic to disprove this. 4-6 are equally likely. Cop should have a report on eagles so should be fine.
6. There’s no logic to disprove this. 4-6 are equally likely. Cop should have a report on eagles so should be fine.
7. This was the other reason I started drafting this post. Eagles right away claimed he could be jailed d2 which seemed weird to me. I would think the optimal play, if eagles is actually jailed, would be to stay quiet and hope he is jailed again and mafia tries to hit him, causing a miss hit. Yet he claims it. This is an amazing poetry play I wish I thought of if Eagles is faking these jailings. There’d be no way for maf to know unless they had a watcher themselves, which is unlikely but not impossible. I’d say it would be worth the risk as civ-eagles to try to stay alive by claiming a fake jailing. That said, that is 100% my play style and not really eagles.
8. Same as 7 only if Indy, the mfer has a bullet proof vest probably and this jail claim is how he is planning on explaining surviving a night hit. It would also obfuscate the would-be miss hit in mafia’s eyes. Would be a “home run” play if he avoids being watched but prob not too likely.
9. Same as 8 but I see super low utility in it since we should have a watcher and mafia typically needs “singles” and not “home runs” to win.

I post this to call people’s attention to possibilities #3, #7 and maybe #8. All of this said, I’m tabling eagles because occam says we are dealing with #4-6 and a cop has a report on his alignment and none of this matters.
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Great analysis to look at later. None of it matters for today because Eagles should not be up for lynching.
 
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